Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[drron]

Not mandatory. You just cannot interact with the rest of society (such as it is) if you aren’t.

As an alternative, we could use Tasmania for its original purpose….

I suspect the locals might get a bit upset by that.

 

[JB expat]

I agree. All the reasons to get vaccinated are valid and worthy on their own. And great incentives to get vaccinated.

But for those who still choose not to, I'm not sure the 'compulsory' line is aligned with the freedoms we expect living in a democracy?

If it was a sole choice between forced vaccinations or allowing travel it would be a tough call. But I think I'd have to go with the freedom to choose (getting vaccinated). But I would also probably leave Australia on a one way ticket!

I have not heard one person say “mandatory”. What I’ve see is a discussion of all the restrictions and limitations that would come with not being vaccinated. To me, “mandatory” means not taking the required action comes with some kind of financial fine imposed by the government or jail time. No one is suggesting these are the consequences. Thus, fully free to make a choice - but that choice could result in FEWER later options that follow from such choice. That is life - we all do this every day - make choices taking into account short term and long term consequences based on the knowledge we have today. Sometimes choices can be reversed, sometimes they cannot. This is no different - freedom still remains. Personally, I feel less free right now given that I am fully vaccinated and still cannot see my 80+ year old parents in the USA.

 

[jakeseven7]

I agree. All the reasons to get vaccinated are valid and worthy on their own. And great incentives to get vaccinated.

But for those who still choose not to, I'm not sure the 'compulsory' line is aligned with the freedoms we expect living in a democracy?

If it was a sole choice between forced vaccinations or allowing travel it would be a tough call. But I think I'd have to go with the freedom to choose (getting vaccinated). But I would also probably leave Australia on a one way ticket!

Bye bye then, write us all a trip report on your way out

As an alternative, we could use Tasmania for its original purpose….

Give it to the French?

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

in hypotheticals ...

imagine person A lived in a free country ...


i know i know sorry, too far fetched, back to the topic ...

 

[hb13]

Yes but... I guess the argument is that overall, those measures are necessary, and support the view that our economy is doing better? The USA doesn’t have the same level of social security we do, or access to free health care. US citizens might be free to travel, but that doesn’t help put food on the table for those without a job!

That issue was there before the pandemic and will be there long after the pandemic. You keep bringing up how great the economy is, however you seem to forget that the economy is (a) doing well because of highly inflated coal and iron ore prices; (b) the continued salary support for people working in the international aviation industry; and (c) highly inflated house prices.

If the government wasn't so arrogant, maybe the vaccine rollout would be well on track. VIC just had a two week lockdown and Sydney is going into one today. NZ is pausing the travel bubble with the whole country - do you understand the economic devastation these continued events have? You think a stop/start economy is going to be fine?

 

[hb13]

On one part of AFF people are comparing Australia to a Communist dictatorship because we aren't free to leave. On another some are advocating compulsory vaccination. Which would also bring us dangerously close to a dictatorship. The government can't really win. I guess the right answer is that the freedom to choose (vaccination or not) has to outweigh the ability to travel.

Completely disagree. Provide enough vaccine supply for every Australian to be fully vaccinated. Once everyone has been offered, whether they take it or not, it is time to open the borders.

That is the right thing to do. That way you're not forcing anyone to take the vaccine. If the government waited for everyone to accept and take the vaccine - you will never get there because of anti-vaxxers.

While you blindly champion the government no matter what and support border closures - it is a year and a half now. People need to see their family. Some people have been stuck in hotels during their 14-day quarantine while their parents are dying. Babies have been born and their grandparents have not seen them - some of these grandparents may not survive another year or two before they can see their grandchildren. Parents are missing their own children's weddings. People are committing suicide and many more are having severe mental issues. I'm not sure how else someone needs to make people understand border restrictions need to be eased?

If you're offered protection, but refuse to take it, that is on you. It should not impinge on other people needing to get on with their lives - which is what you're advocating for. And your constant framing of "oh, why should be people be forced to take a vaccine so others can go on holidays" is absolutely ridiculous. Families need to reunite, businesses need to get moving. And for those wanting holidays, 18 months after this hell, what the hell is the problem with that?

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

exactly ... borders are opening on X date ... the zombies are coming in en masse get your shot or reap the whirlwind, cant hide forever.

(oh but what about person x who cant get it ... well that isnt going to change and clearly we will not keep the border closer forever for 0.00000001% of the population)

 

[Pushka]

Heard today from Brit DIL whose best friend lives in Australia and is married with 3 kids. She is desperate to go to UK and see her mum. Her husband can see no issue with locking the borders for as long as it takes. A very sad situation.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

That issue was there before the pandemic and will be there long after the pandemic. You keep bringing up how great the economy is, however you seem to forget that the economy is (a) doing well because of highly inflated coal and iron ore prices; (b) the continued salary support for people working in the international aviation industry; and (c) highly inflated house prices.

If the government wasn't so arrogant, maybe the vaccine rollout would be well on track. VIC just had a two week lockdown and Sydney is going into one today. NZ is pausing the travel bubble with the whole country - do you understand the economic devastation these continued events have? You think a stop/start economy is going to be fine?

I was responding to the article which was posted by another member. That article claims countries aiming for 'zero' rather than suppression have done better economically and with fewer restrictions on civil liberties.

Completely disagree. Provide enough vaccine supply for every Australian to be fully vaccinated. Once everyone has been offered, whether they take it or not, it is time to open the borders.

That is the right thing to do. That way you're not forcing anyone to take the vaccine. If the government waited for everyone to accept and take the vaccine - you will never get there because of anti-vaxxers.

While you blindly champion the government no matter what and support border closures - it is a year and a half now. People need to see their family. Some people have been stuck in hotels during their 14-day quarantine while their parents are dying. Babies have been born and their grandparents have not seen them - some of these grandparents may not survive another year or two before they can see their grandchildren. Parents are missing their own children's weddings. People are committing suicide and many more are having severe mental issues. I'm not sure how else someone needs to make people understand border restrictions need to be eased?

If you're offered protection, but refuse to take it, that is on you. It should not impinge on other people needing to get on with their lives - which is what you're advocating for. And your constant framing of "oh, why should be people be forced to take a vaccine so others can go on holidays" is absolutely ridiculous. Families need to reunite, businesses need to get moving. And for those wanting holidays, 18 months after this hell, what the hell is the problem with that?

I think we are speaking at cross purposes. I support opening the borders once a threshold of vaccinated persons has been reached. Without that threshold there's the potential to overrun our hospitals. We can't simply open once all those offered have had the chance to take it because if too many don't, the health and economic implications are potentially too high.

My point has only been to discuss whether vaccination should be mandatory. If it is a choice purely between mandatory vaccination or the ability to travel, I think the former is the greater intrusion on our rights. That doesn't mean we can't have incentives to get people vaccinated, but making it the law, under threat of penalty or exclusion, could be a step too far.

I do not champion all government actions, for example the PM mixing holiday with work. I may not like the current policy of international border closures, but it is probably the least worse approach under the current circumstances in Australia (ie relatively low vaccination rates).

 

[Flashback]

Heard today from Brit DIL whose best friend lives in Australia and is married with 3 kids. She is desperate to go to UK and see her mum. Her husband can see no issue with locking the borders for as long as it takes. A very sad situation.

These people walk among us......

 

[mviy]

We have no one in ICU with COVID and no one that has caught COVID in Australia this year has died from what I hear. That is far from having our hospitals overrun. The government is not making any effort to test what the acceptable limits are for returning travellers without putting an undue burden on our hospitals. If they brought back more people but required that the extras coming back over the current caps were fully vaccinated the risk that would pose to our hospital system would be very low. Fully vaccinated travellers in hotel quarantine are highly unlikely to end up in ICU even if they have COVID.

There are clear things that could be done to move towards easing restrictions both inbound and unbound with minimal risk that are not being done.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

We have no one in ICU with COVID and no one that has caught COVID in Australia this year has died from what I hear. That is far from having our hospitals overrun. The government is not making any effort to test what the acceptable limits are for returning travellers without putting an undue burden on our hospitals. If they brought back more people but required that the extras coming back over the current caps were fully vaccinated the risk that would pose to our hospital system would be very low. Fully vaccinated travellers in hotel quarantine are highly unlikely to end up in ICU even if they have COVID.

There are clear things that could be done to move towards easing restrictions both inbound and unbound with minimal risk that are not being done.

The risk is not so much the return traveller themselves, but their ability to infect others. Even when fully vaccinated it’s possible to get covid, and to spread it (although I believe the chance of transmission is greatly reduced).

The mass testing we have now is also unsustainable... tens of thousands of hours spend queuing for tests and isolation while waiting for results. Primary contacts are also required to isolate, and we saw that can affect a whole ward of nursing staff recently.

Maybe there are a couple of thresholds we need to consider? Once the vulnerable are vaccinated, which should prevent death, and then a second threshold of ‘x’ number of the population so we can dispense with all the hours wasted on testing.

 

[oznflfan]

I was responding to the article which was posted by another member. That article claims countries aiming for 'zero' rather than suppression have done better economically and with fewer restrictions on civil liberties.



I think we are speaking at cross purposes. I support opening the borders once a threshold of vaccinated persons has been reached. Without that threshold there's the potential to overrun our hospitals. We can't simply open once all those offered have had the chance to take it because if too many don't, the health and economic implications are potentially too high.

My point has only been to discuss whether vaccination should be mandatory. If it is a choice purely between mandatory vaccination or the ability to travel, I think the former is the greater intrusion on our rights. That doesn't mean we can't have incentives to get people vaccinated, but making it the law, under threat of penalty or exclusion, could be a step too far.

I do not champion all government actions, for example the PM mixing holiday with work. I may not like the current policy of international border closures, but it is probably the least worse approach under the current circumstances in Australia (ie relatively low vaccination rates).

But if you are 1% below the threshold, does that mean due to this we barb wire our beaches and North Korea ourselves permanently?

 

[oznflfan]

The risk is not so much the return traveller themselves, but their ability to infect others. Even when fully vaccinated it’s possible to get covid, and to spread it (although I believe the chance of transmission is greatly reduced).

The mass testing we have now is also unsustainable... tens of thousands of hours spend queuing for tests and isolation while waiting for results. Primary contacts are also required to isolate, and we saw that can affect a whole ward of nursing staff recently.

Maybe there are a couple of thresholds we need to consider? Once the vulnerable are vaccinated, which should prevent death, and then a second threshold of ‘x’ number of the population so we can dispense with all the hours wasted on testing.

Agree testing unsustainable, and worse, lets just say Sydney explodes with 10,000 cases (still less than one day in UK), close and casual contacts may cover 1M people in Sydney, all quaratining at same time. Practically everywhere will be an exposure site. Sydney will literally die temporary and takes months and months to recover. And still probably no-one in ICU.

 

[JB expat]

This [having a vaccine threshold for opening the borders] won’t work. To make it dependent on a threshold when there are people who refuse for no medical reason. Once vaccine is fully available to everyone who is eligible they should give 2 months notice that the borders will open. If individuals don’t take up the vaccine, they can risk catching it and falling very ill. Those who are vaccinated should do fine, and even if they fall ill, should recover. The vaccine does not stop Covid from spreading- it reduces the load and makes it highly unlikely it will cause serious illness. The risk of this should fall on the refusers. My own issue with this is that those who legitimately cannot get vaccinated (including children) will be at risk - not to mention it is simply horrid to do to healthcare workers (frankly I think those without a reason to vaccinate should be denied Medicare if they fall ill - why should tax dollars pay for this when the individual could have avoided being ill - but I get the overall prob with this given we all make unwise choices re: our own health from time to time). Herd immunity is required to protect these categories of people - which is why refusing to vaccinate based on no scientific reason infuriates me.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

This [having a vaccine threshold for opening the borders] won’t work. To make it dependent on a threshold when there are people who refuse for no medical reason. Once vaccine is fully available to everyone who is eligible they should give 2 months notice that the borders will open. If individuals don’t take up the vaccine, they can risk catching it and falling very ill. Those who are vaccinated should do fine, and even if they fall ill, should recover. The vaccine does not stop Covid from spreading- it reduces the load and makes it highly unlikely it will cause serious illness. The risk of this should fall on the refusers. My own issue with this is that those who legitimately cannot get vaccinated (including children) will be at risk - not to mention it is simply horrid to do to healthcare workers (frankly I think those without a reason to vaccinate should be denied Medicare if they fall ill - why should tax dollars pay for this when the individual could have avoided being ill - but I get the overall prob with this given we all make unwise choices re: our own health from time to time). Herd immunity is required to protect these categories of people - which is why refusing to vaccinate based on no scientific reason infuriates me.

I think the key issue is the impact on the health system. We would also need to get rid of the need for testing and isolation for those who are vaccinated (so the doctor/nurse and their families - assuming they are all vaccinated - would not need to get tested and isolate).

Don't know if there is 'no' scientific reason to refuse vaccination. Science has linked blood clots with AZ and inflammation of the heart to Pfizer.

 

[dajop]

Agree testing unsustainable, and worse, lets just say Sydney explodes with 10,000 cases (still less than one day in UK), close and casual contacts may cover 1M people in Sydney, all quaratining at same time. Practically everywhere will be an exposure site. Sydney will literally die temporary and takes months and months to recover. And still probably no-one in ICU.

Whilst the number of fully vaccinated is low as it is today (<10%) if you had 10,000 cases you would not expect no-one in ICU. Singapore at the moment has 317 active cases, 4 in ICU. That would mean with 10,000 active cases you might expect 120 or so in ICU.

 

[teammongo]

Whilst the number of fully vaccinated is low as it is today (<10%) if you had 10,000 cases you would not expect no-one in ICU. Singapore at the moment has 317 active cases, 4 in ICU. That would mean with 10,000 active cases you might expect 120 or so in ICU.

Prior to COVID, there were approximately 500 ICU beds throughout the whole of NSW (public and private). They have doubled the ICU bed capaicty, mainly through repurposing other high acuity wards. Very few additional COVID specific resources have been built. Ventilators have been acquired and equipment purchased, but I very much doubt staffing has doubled though.

To better understand the bed utilisation, the median length of stay of a COVID ICU patient is about 12 -16 days (UK 12 Aus 16). That means about 120 x 12 = 1440 occupied ICU bed days. If you have an elective major operation (say an aortic repair, cardiac surgery..) you would need 1-2 days in ICU or 1-2 occupied bed days. You can see that even relatively "small" numbers of ICU COVID patients would have major impacts on the quality of health care in the general community.

TM

 

[oznflfan]

This current situation could go either way, not sure how next couple of months will pan out.

We may get on top of and return to COVID Zero, or

This may get away from us like many previous COVID Zero or close to countries like Taiwan, Thailand, Cambodia, etc.

If it does get away from us, the PM will hang on as long as possible to May 2022 as he will lose election, vaccination rates will increase, and borders will open quicker, as no longer have to worry abut COVID getting in, it is already here.

 

[Pushka]

This current situation could go either way, not sure how next couple of months will pan out.

We may get on top of and return to COVID Zero, or

This may get away from us like many previous COVID Zero or close to countries like Taiwan, Thailand, Cambodia, etc.

If it does get away from us, Scomo will hang on as long as possible to May 2022 as he will lose election, vaccination rates will increase, and borders will open quicker, as no longer have to worry abut COVID getting in, it is already here.

Not getting political but I suspect more recent events make delaying the election more hazardous.

Im hoping we finally come to getting people vaccinated and learning to live with Covid somehow.