Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Must...Fly!]

It's perfectly consistent to say Australia did well in 2020 (in comparison to, say, the UK or the US) in preventing the spread of COVID-19 and is now doing horrifically poorly in 2021 (in comparison to, say, the entire developed world). We are now one of the only countries in the world that prohibits its citizens from leaving, we continue to have stranded thousands of our citizens overseas, and our vaccine roll out is now the slowest in the OECD.

What it really highlights is even with the development of technology we still suffer from a significant tyranny of distance from the rest of the world. Both physically but in this case more critically, mentally.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Ditto in Victoria as well as national level. If there's one thing that I would expect the entire parliament to take out of what happened in Victoria last year is that the health bureaucracy may need to be dismantled in a brick by brick manner (i.e. very carefully) and rebuilt to be more nimble and agile and responsive to the needs of the communities it serves. (oh and the other thing, build one less road and invest in improved IT).

But unfortunately cultural and structural issues whether it feds or states, related to overseas borders or health departments or hospitals are not so easily shown off or targeted in election campaigns, and not as easy to blame person. So they warrant very little media attention (we're still hearing about the "who made the decision" in Victoria, rather than "Why wasn't health dept fixed years ago").

I think last year shows the states, for the most part, did extremely well? Victoria implemented strict covid regimes in aged care facilities, but the Cth ones did not. I think it shows that states are best placed to manage issues at a local level. Unfortunately I don’t think the Cth will want to give up its powers to states, regardless of how much better states manage it.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

It's perfectly consistent to say Australia did well in 2020 (in comparison to, say, the UK or the US) in preventing the spread of COVID-19 and is now doing horrifically poorly in 2021 (in comparison to, say, the entire developed world). We are now one of the only countries in the world that prohibits its citizens from leaving, we continue to have stranded thousands of our citizens overseas, and our vaccine roll out is now the slowest in the OECD.

Yes but... I guess the argument is that overall, those measures are necessary, and support the view that our economy is doing better? The USA doesn’t have the same level of social security we do, or access to free health care. US citizens might be free to travel, but that doesn’t help put food on the table for those without a job!

 

[drron]

The Atlantic

This is an interesting article and gives more of a perspective on the Asia /Oceania approach to Covid-19 . It puts into context the Australian response and the comparison with our region.
We are far from an outlier here no matter how much it appears from Latika Bourke et al.

The next article in that link was also interesting.Maybe those that don't want their second dose of AZ should wait for Novavax rather than Pfizer.

 

[Must...Fly!]

The next article in that link was also interesting.Maybe those that don't want their second dose of AZ should wait for Novavax rather than Pfizer.

If they wait long enough, they won't have to have a second dose at all....

 

[louie-m]

The next article in that link was also interesting.Maybe those that don't want their second dose of AZ should wait for Novavax rather than Pfizer.

The mRNA Vaccines Are Extraordinary, but Novavax Is Even Better - be careful, we all know that anything not-mRNA is useless and there will be no demand for it over here.

 

[Grimace1]

Well, they've updated the "Leaving Australia" page on Home Affairs to now include the following:

COVID-19 vaccination and travel exemption eligibility​

As COVID-19 vaccination programs become available worldwide, the Australian Government is considering options to recommence international travel. This will be a gradual process informed by expert health advice.


Vaccination status does not currently determine or influence the outcome of a travel exemption request. Exemptions can only be approved if you meet the guidelines for a discretionary exemption, or meet an exempt category.

Department of Home Affairs Website

Home Affairs brings together Australia's federal law enforcement, national and transport security, criminal justice, emergency management, multicultural affairs, settlement services and immigration and border-related functions, working together to keep Australia safe.

covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au

 

[mviy]

The thing is that if you get an exemption you automatically become eligible to be vaccinated.

I think a logical step would be to make it a condition that you get vaccinated if you haven't been already prior to travel for any new categories added to exemption criteria e.g. family reunion.

For compassionate reasons such as visiting a dying relative there may not be time to get vaccinated. Though for those who have been eligible to get vaccinated and chosen not to I guess that could be eventually factored into denying applications, I suspect.

 

[roogirl]

I know some on here still subscribe to the theory this thing is no worse than the flu. But unchecked it is. I don’t know a single colleague in India who has not had someone near to them pass away from it. It’s not normal for us to have fundraising drives for the children of employees in India because our employee and their spouse have passed away. It’s still bad.

So I still would like to think governments are doing this to protect everyone.

But, I don’t think it’s unreasonable for a pathway out. Spend some serious money boosting confidence in AZ. Commit to a vaccination rollout plan. Explain what it means for borders and travel Look at what we need to achieve to stop worrying about cases. Start working with other countries to open up even somewhat restricted - but freer than now - travel.

If doesn’t have to be and never will be the rip the band-aid off approach that some of our more colourful contributors suggest. Nor going to happen as much as people wish. If expecting that better start working on your plans to leave Australia for good.

But the very least I would expect from the government is some sort of plan and a coherent message/campaign around vaccinations and shifting the needle from obsessing over casss to hospitalisations . Some leadership rather than followership.

I certainly don’t think covid is like the flu. It’s a nasty respiratory disease with a significant risk of death or impairment, particularly if you are older or with a co morbidity. It’s the main reason I rushed to get vaccinated as soon as I could, notwithstanding my personal risk profile is quite low. that said, the IFR is at 1% (I think below 1), and I don’t think it’s problematic to acknowledge that.

what’s frustrating me about the Australian government is (1) the simultaneous lack of effective risk assessment and (2) the driving of a fearful, zero covid culture. On (1), the decision to assess risk of Astra Zeneca against a zero covid baseline rather than as against an outbreak. Epidemiologists in the U.K. are constantly producing exponential virus growth models, why are these not being used to price and communicate risk in Oz? The whole vaccine rollout is a shambles. On (2), this idea that australia can suppress covid “until it’s been eliminated from the world” is just a ludicrous one.

the combination of 1 and 2 create Fortress Australia. Which, I could just about reluctantly accept, but you add to that the complete lack of empathy or even acknowledgement that this “strategy” is causing despair to literally millions of Australian citizens. That’s why most people are railing against what’s going on.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I certainly don’t think covid is like the flu. It’s a nasty respiratory disease with a significant risk of death or impairment, particularly if you are older or with a co morbidity.

Which is pretty much same same as flu in terms of outcomes Huge death toll from the flu each year. But people are able to get vaccinated if they want. I suspect covid will go down the same path. (Granted, people often call a bad cold 'the flu'. Actual flu can be quite lethal.)

 

[clifford]

That’s why most people are railing against what’s going on.

I don't think that's actually the case.

 

[roogirl]

Which is pretty much same same as flu in terms of outcomes Huge death toll from the flu each year. But people are able to get vaccinated if they want. I suspect covid will go down the same path. (Granted, people often call a bad cold 'the flu'. Actual flu can be quite lethal.)

I don’t think actual flu is nearly as transmissible as covid though - that’s the difference/problem from a public health perspective.

 

[MooTime]

the combination of 1 and 2 create Fortress Australia. Which, I could just about reluctantly accept, but you add to that the complete lack of empathy or even acknowledgement that this “strategy” is causing despair to literally millions of Australian citizens. That’s why most people are railing against what’s going on.

I don't think most are rallying against gov stance at all. Every survey / poll I've seen is in support of closed borders & at worst even split on the idea. Of course other polls would say otherwise, I just haven't seen them.
It's bit of a vacumn here at AFF full of flyers etc. Myself included.

It is a tough one, open up to the world & in comes covid, hospitalization will drastically rise. We are vac'd 3% only. Vac doesn't stop spread anyway & our illustrious premiers want zero. I really have no idea how this will all go & how we'll look 2H 2022 & even 2023. Covid must rise here.... How many, how will we cope & manage with bigger numbers?

 

[roogirl]

I don't think that's actually the case.

Most people I know, both in and out of Australia, are very upset at what’s happening. I understand your experience might be different but it’s not representative of everyone. Clearly some people are comfortable with what’s going on but plenty are not.

 

[roogirl]

I don't think most are rallying against gov stance at all. Every survey / poll I've seen is in support of closed borders & at worst even split on the idea. Of course other polls would say otherwise, I just haven't seen them.
It's bit of a vacumn here at AFF full of flyers etc. Myself included.

It is a tough one, open up to the world & in comes covid, hospitalization will drastically rise. We are vac'd 3% only. Vac doesn't stop spread anyway & our illustrious premiers want zero. I really have no idea how this will all go & how we'll look 2H 2022 & even 2023. Covid must rise here.... How many, how will we cope & manage with bigger numbers?

Agreed. I don’t think anyone (or very few) suggests Aus should open up at current vaxx rates. I certainly don’t. The frustration is more that there seems to be no urgency around getting people vaccinated! Stone cold last in the OECD countries is not a good look.

I also have a massive philosophical problem with requiring exit permits to leave. To me that is a massive massive incursion on liberty and not compatible with a democratic state. Ditto refusing to allow citizens to return. Acceptable in an emergency while you sort out a proper system, not ok 17 months in with no end in sight….

 

[mviy]

I think after the election the Feds have to link the states getting the large numbers of international students in that they want to a deal to do a certain degree of opening up travel for Australians e.g. allowing home quarantine for vaccinated travellers coming back from certain countries.

I also have a massive philosophical problem with requiring exit permits to leave. To me that is a massive massive incursion on liberty and not compatible with a democratic state. Ditto refusing to allow citizens to return. Acceptable in an emergency while you sort out a proper system, not ok 17 months in with no end in sight….

I agree, however every legal challenge so far against these restrictions has failed. Until that changes or the will of the government changes there's not a lot that we can do.

 

[Pushka]

Well, they've updated the "Leaving Australia" page on Home Affairs to now include the following:

COVID-19 vaccination and travel exemption eligibility​

As COVID-19 vaccination programs become available worldwide, the Australian Government is considering options to recommence international travel. This will be a gradual process informed by expert health advice.


Vaccination status does not currently determine or influence the outcome of a travel exemption request. Exemptions can only be approved if you meet the guidelines for a discretionary exemption, or meet an exempt category.

Department of Home Affairs Website

Home Affairs brings together Australia's federal law enforcement, national and transport security, criminal justice, emergency management, multicultural affairs, settlement services and immigration and border-related functions, working together to keep Australia safe.

covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au

That’s a start at least!

 

[jb747]

We will never get anywhere with this until the vaccination becomes mandatory for most things in life. Going to work. The pub. Leaving home. Of course, no politician has the courage to make it mandatory, so I see no reason for this current purgatory to end.

 

[Pushka]

We will never get anywhere with this until the vaccination becomes mandatory for most things in life. Going to work. The pub. Leaving home. Of course, no politician has the courage to make it mandatory, so I see no reason for this current purgatory to end.

They can say once people have had a reasonable time to get vaccinated that things will change. Like they do with child care. No immunisation no child care.

 

[mviy]

I think in a few months or so it would be reasonable to require say for instance those over 70 to have been vaccinated to go to the football. Whether or not the government will actually bring in a requirement like that is another question.