Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[oznflfan]

. In other words, we need a federal election tomorrow

..and what difference will that make ??

860 is right on the money. No changes until election won by either party. Then they are in for next 3 years and safe. Any talk of opening before election will be jumped on by opposing party.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

The Health Advice doesn’t say it should not be given.

COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca can be used in adults aged under 60 years for whom Comirnaty is not available, the benefits are likely to outweigh the risks for that individual and the person has made an informed decision based on an understanding of the risks and benefits.

I think the key is that the benefits outweigh the risks. The QLD CHO made the point she doesn't want an (otherwise healthy) 18 year old dying from a blood clot when covid almost certainly wouldn't kill them .

 

[serfty]

covid almost certainly wouldn't kill them .

What percentage is that "almost certainly" representing.

Coronavirus and COVID-19: Younger Adults Are at Risk, Too

Early reports indicated that young people were more likely to have milder cases of the disease. But that view may be changing.

www.hopkinsmedicine.org

 

[roogirl]

I think the key is that the benefits outweigh the risks. The QLD CHO made the point she doesn't want an (otherwise healthy) 18 year old dying from a blood clot when covid almost certainly wouldn't kill them .

But I come back to how that risk is assessed. In a situation where you have an active covid outbreak (at scale) the risk of clotting for an 18yo is likely to be less than the risk of death from covid (in the absence of any other vaccine Ofc). Both are vanishingly unlikely, of course. Plus ofc the CHO isn’t allowing a hypothetically vulnerable 18yo (who has a higher personal risk profile of covid) to assess their personal risk.

 

[Princess Fiona]

I think the key is that the benefits outweigh the risks. The QLD CHO made the point she doesn't want an (otherwise healthy) 18 year old dying from a blood clot when covid almost certainly wouldn't kill them .

And being on the OCP or a long haul flight or being pregnant might kill the same otherwise healthy 18 year old by a fatal blood clot.
And they can choose by informed consent or otherwise to do either of those.
You can’t choose whether or not you contract Covid-19 and if you do whether or not you transmit that to a vulnerable person who doesn’t have the same survival rates as you do.

 

[drron]

And the risk of a healthy 18 year old male dying of myocarditis from the Pfizer vaccine is probably similiar to that 18 year old male dying of a clot from the AZ vaccine.A healthy 18year old male who gets TTS is very likely to be treated successfully.

And with the AZ clots it is not that 18 year olds are at more risk of getting clots but their risk of having serious covid at present is much less.
When you look at deaths from the clots they are mainly in people over 40.The incidence of TTS over 50 if anything is a little more than in younger people but the risk of serious covid goes up quicker once over 50.

Whereas myocarditis is much more common in males younger than 30.Uncommon over 30 and virtually unknown over 50.

 

[Lynda2475]

And the risk of a healthy 18 year old male dying of myocarditis from the Pfizer vaccine

Do you understand the claims in this article that "the conditions were relatively rare, and generally not life-threatening" and "in the vast majority of cases, there is no long-term problem" to be inaccurate?

Rare heart inflammation could be linked to mRNA vaccines, research shows

Rare cases of heart inflammation could be linked to the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, according to new research, but medical experts say the risk of the conditions is still far lower than the risks of serious illness or death from contracting COVID-19.

www.abc.net.au

"Four cases of myocarditis and 15 cases of pericarditis have been reported to the TGA since the start of the vaccine rollout in Australia. That's after about 2 million doses of mRNA vaccines were administered in Australia."

So an incidence of MRNA heart issues of 0.00095% and no fatalities as yet.

 

[drron]

Were you aware that 2 young adults in Israel who developed myocarditis after the Pfizer vaccine died?
Very few in Australia under 30 have had the Pfizer vaccine yet and as that is the age more likely to get the myocarditis usually after the second dose yet so not surprising there are very few cases in Australia as yet.
Myocarditis is virtually unknown in those over 50 who would have been the very large majority of those 2 million doses..The Israelis report that the incidence could be as high as 1 in 3000 to 1 in 20000 young men. Why are most reports of myocarditis from Israel.Simple they were the first to vaccinate large numbers of people younger than 30.

In naturally occurring myocarditis the majority of cases are over 50.cause of death is usually sudden death.

 

[louie-m]

Do you understand the claims in this article that "the conditions were relatively rare, and generally not life-threatening" and "in the vast majority of cases, there is no long-term problem" to be inaccurate?

Rare heart inflammation could be linked to mRNA vaccines, research shows

Rare cases of heart inflammation could be linked to the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, according to new research, but medical experts say the risk of the conditions is still far lower than the risks of serious illness or death from contracting COVID-19.

www.abc.net.au

"Four cases of myocarditis and 15 cases of pericarditis have been reported to the TGA since the start of the vaccine rollout in Australia. That's after about 2 million doses of mRNA vaccines were administered in Australia."

So an incidence of MRNA heart issues of 0.00095% and no fatalities as yet.

You've got to stop twisting statistics. How many of those 2m doses have been administered to young, healthy males?

 

[Lynda2475]

You've got to stop twisting statistics. How many of those 2m doses have been administered to young, healthy males?

We don't have that exact breakdown (Feds have promised it soon), but a fair few given 1a and 1b workers under 50 got Pfizer.

Interesting that you object to using total doses given for Pfizer, but don't make the same call out for AZ and TtS (as I did) where people keep quoting total doses given (majority of which were to over 50s) when trying to down play risk to under 50s for AZ induced TTS.

If ABC is to be believed (and they have a fact check program if you believe the article is wrong), the conditions mainly occur in under 30s so if it's the oldies in aged care (the main over 50s that got pfizer) showing in these stat's then unlikely Pfizer was the cause.

When dose data by age, gender and vaccine type is release we will know more.

 

[jb747]

One of our doctors might correct me on this, but from my reading it seems that the risk of death from Covid in a healthy 25 year old was about twice the risk of the same outcome from having AZ. The risk of being killed in a car accident was about 3-4 times the risk of a bad AZ outcome. So, we’d save many more 25 year olds if they were all given AZ, but but banned from the roads.

 

[NM]

I think the key is that the benefits outweigh the risks. The QLD CHO made the point she doesn't want an (otherwise healthy) 18 year old dying from a blood clot when covid almost certainly wouldn't kill them .

What percentage is that "almost certainly" representing.

And what is the probability that one of the 8* or so people this otherwise-healthy 18yo might infect will have severe and long-lasting health issues as a result of yet another infection cluster. Yes indeed the otherwise-healthy 18yo might be at very low risk of experiencing severe symptoms/illness, but others in their household, workplace, or casual contacts might not be so "otherwise-healthy".

Death, while certainly severe, is not the only adverse outcome from COVID-19. Many people who are statistically included in the "recovered" category (they no longer test positive) will have long-lasting and in some cases lifetime complications.

* based on current reporting that the Delta strain appears to be very contagious and average cross-infection rates of around 8 people per case are common when an infection case is not in quarantine.

 

[dajop]

Anyways, back on the topic of international travel (as opposed to vaccinations - there is a thread for that as I am sure you all know), Singapore has now reintroduced 7 days home quarantine for anyone with travel history in previous 21 days in Australia. They’d just lifted it for Victoria and put it on for NSW but has now extended to whole of Australia so back on Victoria again Not that it really effects any significant number of people.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

And what is the probability that one of the 8* or so people this otherwise-healthy 18yo might infect will have severe and long-lasting health issues as a result of yet another infection cluster. Yes indeed the otherwise-healthy 18yo might be at very low risk of experiencing severe symptoms/illness, but others in their household, workplace, or casual contacts might not be so "otherwise-healthy".

Death, while certainly severe, is not the only adverse outcome from COVID-19. Many people who are statistically included in the "recovered" category (they no longer test positive) will have long-lasting and in some cases lifetime complications.

* based on current reporting that the Delta strain appears to be very contagious and average cross-infection rates of around 8 people per case are common when an infection case is not in quarantine.

I think this highlights that medical matters come down to personal choice, and deciding which risks people want to take and which they don't. A 25 year old may accept the risk of driving to go to work or play, they may not want to take on the vaccine. We can't hide the facts or cover them up within other statistics.

This is going to be an issue not just for younger people, but all those hesitant to take the vaccine. If borders are to open the communications are going to have to be managed.

 

[JB expat]

I think this highlights that medical matters come down to personal choice, and deciding which risks people want to take and which they don't. A 25 year old may accept the risk of driving to go to work or play, they may not want to take on the vaccine. We can't hide the facts or cover them up within other statistics.

This is going to be an issue not just for younger people, but all those hesitant to take the vaccine. If borders are to open the communications are going to have to be managed.

By now you know my view is to state a date for opening the border and have that factor into individual’s risk analysis. It is not tenable to have vaccination rates drive the border decision, vaccine availability has to drive the opening.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

By now you know my view is to state a date for opening the border and have that factor into individual’s risk analysis. It is not tenable to have vaccination rates drive the border decision, vaccine availability has to drive the opening.

That would be nice. But there is the overarching 'collective' risk... which is that despite the consequences for any individual, the flow-on effects to hospitals, medical staff, testing requirements, etc means we may have to manage this as a whole. It's a bit like the flu vaccine now... if you choose not to have it, that's fine, but someone still has to look after you when you are in hospital with pneumonia

 

[JB expat]

That would be nice. But there is the overarching 'collective' risk... which is that despite the consequences for any individual, the flow-on effects to hospitals, medical staff, testing requirements, etc means we may have to manage this as a whole. It's a bit like the flu vaccine now... if you choose not to have it, that's fine, but someone still has to look after you when you are in hospital with pneumonia

Yes, but I think with the number of vaccines we will have, that risk will be manageable. I refuse to accept that the selfish will dictate how the rest of us live. The people who can travel will be the vaccinated, covid tests can be required before returning to Aus, home quarantine and further covid testing during such quarantine period can be required. Implement a law which prohibits refusers from attending any public event with over 15 people (frankly, I'd like this rule to apply to private events as well, and if legal, it should). This should sufficiently minimize the situation that you describe.

It is simply unacceptable that refusers control the opening of the borders.

 

[jakeseven7]

I think the key is that the benefits outweigh the risks. The QLD CHO made the point she doesn't want an (otherwise healthy) 18 year old dying from a blood clot when covid almost certainly wouldn't kill them .

With respect I’m afraid you have missed the thrust of the argument again.

No one wants anyone to die from anything. Anyone who is now getting AZ under 40 is having a medical consultation to make sure they are informed.

Thank goodness the QLD CHO has zero control or influence over this part of the program and her views (on this matter) have been rejected by almost every single one of her medical peers.

 

[dajop]

Not happy with Dan and Anna this morning. Respectively calling for 75% and 50% cut in international arrivals. Shocking.

Although I tend to agree with Qld, they probably need a cut (temporarily) to get their S*(@#t together, but Victoria seems to be doing much better on HQ now, having gone through the pain of last year and the Holiday Inn outbreak this year.

 

[ayushamity]

Not happy with Dan and Anna this morning. Respectively calling for 75% and 50% cut in international arrivals. Shocking

Karen Andrews said its not gonna happen and told Qld to stick it where the sun don't shine.

Post automatically merged: Jul 1, 2021

Very few in Australia under 30 have had the Pfizer vaccine yet and as that is the age more likely to get the myocarditis usually after the second dose yet so not surprising there are very few cases in Australia as yet.

I am 29, have had my 2nd dose of Pfizer 3 weeks ago and I am fine thanks. But if I drop dead, I will let you know.