Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[MEL_Traveller]

And sadly, this is something that continues to be ignored. Yes, we’re working hard to save the lives of people in nursing homes, but for some reason decide to forget about the other lives that are being ruined, the suicides, the divorces….. this is where Australia has failed. And failed badly.

But there would have been many more deaths had we followed the example in the US, UK, Europe. Not just one suicide, but multiples of deaths. Australia is continuing its original strategy, but I’m not sure which model to change to now, with the current vaccination rates?

 

[Pushka]

But there would have been many more deaths had we followed the example in the US, UK, Europe. Not just one suicide, but multiples of deaths. Australia is continuing its original strategy, but I’m not sure which model to change to now, with the current vaccination rates?

I think we all agree that we closed down very effectively. That is a given. But we've been too "successful" in that we have created this laissez faire attitude to the vaccination, the reality that we will have to eventually open up borders, improve immigration, and accept that we can't stop this virus from having some impact, but with good vaccination rates and likely ongoing social distancing to an extent, the time has come to move to that model. But we are stuck. People think we can just shut the borders for years. We can't.

 

[Batterytraveller]

"While there has been a rise in the use of mental health services and an increase in psychological distress during 2020 there is no evidence to date that COVID-19 has been associated with a rise in suspected deaths by suicide. "

A lagging rather than a leading indicator, it must be said.

COVID-19

COVID-19 page on the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare website

www.aihw.gov.au

 

[Pushka]

"While there has been a rise in the use of mental health services and an increase in psychological distress during 2020 there is no evidence to date that COVID-19 has been associated with a rise in suspected deaths by suicide. "

A lagging rather than a leading indicator, it must be said.

COVID-19

COVID-19 page on the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare website

www.aihw.gov.au

Working in the mental health services area, pretty much all sessions focus on the complexities of Covid isolation and its repercussion. There is certainly an instant effect and there will most certainly be delayed impacts. And these are just the people who manage to get an appointment. Put it this way, there was a last minute cancellation Monday due to sickness and it was immediately filled and booked within the hour with someone on a wait list and they 'dropped everything' and arrived within the next two hours for that scarce appointment.

 

[oznflfan]

I think we all agree that we closed down very effectively. That is a given. But we've been too "successful" in that we have created this laiissez faire attitude to the vaccination, the reality that we will have to eventually open up borders, improve immigration, and accept that we can't stop this virus from having some impact, but with good vaccination rates and likely ongoing social distancing to an extent, the time has come to move to that model. But we are stuck. People think we can just shut the borders for years. We can't.

Very simple solution, and raised by a few posters. Once we are swimming in Pfizer/Moderna/Novavax, and everyone can get the shot can same day, we give notice for international borders opening (using a traffic light system - barring red countries) in say 4 months time. This gives plenty of notice for people to vaccinate that haven't.

Bad news, politicians will be scared to state this until election complete. So if election May 2022, a couple of months later in July 2022 when risks have changed this could be announced, for a November opening.

Good news, A) cross fingers for early election, and B) we can travel oversea's next year.

 

[Pushka]

Very simple solution, and raised by a few posters. Once we are swimming in Pfizer/Moderna/Novavax, and everyone can get the shot can same day, we give notice for international borders opening (using a traffic light system - barring red countries) in say 4 months time. This gives plenty of notice for people to vaccinate that haven't.

Bad news, politicians will be scared to state this until election complete. So if election May 2022, a couple of months later in July 2022 when risks have changed this could be announced, for a November opening.

Good news, A) cross fingers for early election, and B) we can travel oversea's next year.

And a November 2022 will be much too late for many.

 

[oznflfan]

And a November 2022 will be much too late for many.

I hope I am being conservative, but still see July 2022 as best case scenario.

 

[Batterytraveller]

Working in the mental health services area, pretty much all sessions focus on the complexities of Covid isolation and its repercussion. There is certainly an instant effect and there will most certainly be delayed impacts. And these are just the people who manage to get an appointment. Put it this way, there was a last minute cancellation Monday due to sickness and it was immediately filled and booked within the hour with someone on a wait list and they 'dropped everything' and arrived within the next two hours for that scarce appointment.

I definitely don't want to diminish the mental health impacts of COVID-19, I've definitely been making the most of the extra COVID 10 mental health plan. COVID has been for me, and probably much more so for many, a massive and abrupt life change.

Suicide rates have been a touchstone for the anti-public health, it's just the flu crew, and for Australia at least there has been no-evidence of a rise in suicide despite the rise in mental health issues.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Very simple solution, and raised by a few posters. Once we are swimming in Pfizer/Moderna/Novavax, and everyone can get the shot can same day, we give notice for international borders opening (using a traffic light system - barring red countries) in say 4 months time. This gives plenty of notice for people to vaccinate that haven't.

Bad news, politicians will be scared to state this until election complete. So if election May 2022, a couple of months later in July 2022 when risks have changed this could be announced, for a November opening.

Good news, A) cross fingers for early election, and B) we can travel oversea's next year.

The main flaw in that plan is that if borders open after four months, what happens to the people who did not vaccinate? They will still take up the hospital beds, still push people out of elective surgery, still potentially cause staff who are ‘primary contacts’ to have to isolate.

If we could solve that problem it might work.

 

[kamchatsky]

And a November 2022 will be much too late for many.

I think even now is too late for many, but we are powerless about it unless majority of Aussies screams for opening of borders. But that is not happening.

 

[mviy]

July last year was what I needed. Today would be better than tomorrow.

 

[oznflfan]

The main flaw in that plan is that if borders open after four months, what happens to the people who did not vaccinate? They will still take up the hospital beds, still push people out of elective surgery, still potentially cause staff who are ‘primary contacts’ to have to isolate.

If we could solve that problem it might work.

Sorry you are right, we should start installing the barbed wire deepwater fencing and Belgian gates on our beaches, close all international terminals, and close diplomatic contact with the outside world.

 

[JB expat]

The main flaw in that plan is that if borders open after four months, what happens to the people who did not vaccinate? They will still take up the hospital beds, still push people out of elective surgery, still potentially cause staff who are ‘primary contacts’ to have to isolate.

If we could solve that problem it might work.

those numbers should be in the range that the hospitals can handle. In any event, these consequences need to be spelled out. Australia simply cannot continue to cater to the "refusers" - there really does need to be a stigma attached to those who refuse or delay out of choice. It remains a selfish decision that, as you correctly point out, have consequences for society. As I've said over & over - sticks are needed. A vaccine passport equivalent to a driver's license needs to become a requirement for entry into any event holding more than 25 people (those with a medical exemption can be issued the same/similar passport as there should be NO stigma for those who simply cannot get vaccinated). Time to look at what is good for the whole (a public good) - this argument is used for climate change and many other policy driven rules.

 

[N860CR]

But there would have been many more deaths had we followed the example in the US, UK, Europe. Not just one suicide, but multiples of deaths. Australia is continuing its original strategy, but I’m not sure which model to change to now, with the current vaccination rates?

What plan would that be? Flatten the curve? Suppression? Or the “elimination model that’s definitely not elimination”.

We’ve stumbled on for 18 months and through basic luck (and draconian national border closures and lockdowns) to “eliminate” something that cannot be eliminated.

Had we accepted that strategy to begin with, we’d have a decent vaccination plan in place. Instead, because we had no set National model, we’re now in what is virtually a National lockdown as the rest of the world begins to turn a corner.

 

[burmans]

those numbers should be in the range that the hospitals can handle. In any event, these consequences need to be spelled out. Australia simply cannot continue to cater to the "refusers" - there really does need to be a stigma attached to those who refuse or delay out of choice. It remains a selfish decision that, as you correctly point out, have consequences for society. As I've said over & over - sticks are needed. A vaccine passport equivalent to a driver's license needs to become a requirement for entry into any event holding more than 25 people (those with a medical exemption can be issued the same/similar passport as there should be NO stigma for those who simply cannot get vaccinated). Time to look at what is good for the whole (a public good) - this argument is used for climate change and many other policy driven rules.

Bit of a chicken and egg situation here. It's clear that many countries wont let us in without a vaccine passport when we are allowed to travel, which would be an incentive but only when we are allowed to travel and we cant because too many aren't going to be taking up the vaccination.

 

[roogirl]

Should be renamed poogirl.
All negativity, there's many great things happening, it's not all doom n gloom.
Australia hasn't been been perfect like nobody had been in this pandemic.

I'm from Melbourne, have a few complaints, but very happy to be here & in Aus.
Things will improve in regards to OS travel, just not next month.

The main flaw in that plan is that if borders open after four months, what happens to the people who did not vaccinate? They will still take up the hospital beds, still push people out of elective surgery, still potentially cause staff who are ‘primary contacts’ to have to isolate.

If we could solve that problem it might work.

The reality is that we need more hospital & clinical capacity (and associated staff etc) to attend to the acute and chronic covid treatment pathways for many years. I find the government(s - same is happening in the U.K.) failure to plan / build for it outrageous.

but on the border opening, you get around it by making a shorter isolation period for vaccinated people (and actually what happens in practice like in the U.K. is that people stop using QR codes/giving out close contacts names / don’t isolate properly - hard to enforce properly in a non emergency situation). Switching to home quarantine still kills a big chunk of the tourist market dead so inbound numbers should be manageable. And unvaxxed aussies won’t be allowed in anywhere else anywhere so nowhere for them to go outbound.

 

[roogirl]

By the way the vaccine rollout is now taking a quite sinister political turn with Anastasia saying to ignore the Government's edict on AZ and to wait for Pfizer. It’s getting properly nasty and the people who won’t benefit are Australian citizens waiting to move on with their lives.

 

[mviy]

Though if I'm fully vaccinated in about 3 months under the current rules that'll have no impact on the success or failure of an exemption request to travel. I'm keen to get vaccinated ASAP just in case but not everyone is going to feel that way when they consider that closer to borders opening up you may be able to get fully vaccinated within a month or two.

 

[louie-m]

A vaccine passport equivalent to a driver's license needs to become a requirement for entry into any event holding more than 25 people (those with a medical exemption can be issued the same/similar passport as there should be NO stigma for those who simply cannot get vaccinated).

Much as I agree with you in principle, in practice what will happen is the anti-vaxxers will go to their pet doctors and get an exemption based on the damage to their mental health that getting vaccinated will cause.

 

[dajop]

It almost feels like Australia is inching closer and closer every day to the Sentinel Island option.