Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Ekka]

Yes agree. But where did Business Travel come into the discussion here? I think the plan sucks by the way. Young people will want to live a normal life, have parties, go dancing. That is a hook for them. Older people - there is a demand amongst new retirees to travel, many overseas. Time is running out for them. Get. Vaccinated.

But if you're over 60 it has to be the flawed and unethical AstraZeneca, or nothing.

 

[RAM]

That just means they tested negative at the one point in time they were tested, since there was no follow up testing. They are still the most likely source, given none of the cases diagnosed at that cafe have older infection than the driver. He is butt covering.

There has been no documented (reported) case where someone who tested negative in Australia was found to have transmitted CV while testing negative. Given they were tested just after being driven - if one of them was giving off sufficient CV to infect another who was wearing a mask (as confirmed by CCTV) - then they would have tested positive.

Of course, this can be the first time.

Then again in the very same area in May there was an outbreak with a never identified source.

 

[drron]

There has been no documented (reported) case where someone who tested negative in Australia was found to have transmitted CV while testing negative. Given they were tested just after being driven - if one of them was giving off sufficient CV to infect another who was wearing a mask (as confirmed by CCTV) - then they would have tested positive.

Of course, this can be the first time.

Then again in the very same area in May there was an outbreak with a never identified source.

Amazingly not only are there false positive tests and although less likely there are false negative tests.

 

[Lynda2475]

then they would have tested positive

Their viral load may have been too low to test positive on arrival testing, but then grown over night and they infected him on the way back to the airport the next day. They don't test flight crew on departure of HQ.

This is the reason they test non crew arrivals on multiple days of HQ, as your levels can go from non detectable to detectable over time.

You also make no allowance for the test not being administered correctly, mistakes happen. You can have false positives and false negatives too.

I maintain Dr Chant and NSW Health have no ruled out freight air crew as the source.

 

[mviy]

But if you're over 60 it has to be the flawed and unethical AstraZeneca, or nothing.

You are more likely to be hit by a bus or struck by lightning than die from the AZ vaccine, but if you are exposed to COVID the vaccine may be the one thing that saves your life.

Many life saving treatments carry risks. Chemo kills good cells as well as cancerous ones. Should we outlaw chemo because it may leave someone immunocompromised and vulnerable to diseases?

We have to get over vaccine hesistancy and take what we can get if we are to reopen our borders. My main issue with the AZ I took today is that I’ll have to wait about 12 weeks for my second dose. I would prefer to be fully vaccinated sooner but considering I almost certainly wouldn’t have been able to get Pfizer for at least a couple of months there’s a strong chance I’ll be vaccinated sooner with AZ.

 

[Lynda2475]

M-LM calling for a an impossible target. There is no way 100% of 60+ will get vaccinated, we cant even get 100% of Aged Care Residents to get the jab.

 

[RAM]

Amazingly not only are there false positive tests and although less likely there are false negative tests.

100% correct. However, there has not been one single transmission recorded in Australia from someone who generated a false negative test, transmitted before they took & returned the negative result.

Not once.

There have been some testing positive days later such as someone from WA who flew in from Sydney. The 1st test came back negative & could have been 100% correct at that time but five days later she tested positive.

“When the first test happened, [case 1022] would have been exposed but they weren’t yet producing viral particles so they won’t be detectable by PCR,” Professor Clements said.

So more chance of the limo driver winning lotto two weeks in a row then that he caught CV from negative test air crew.

 

[JB expat]

M-LM calling for a an impossible target. There is no way 100% of 60+ will get vaccinated, we cant even get 100% of Aged Care Residents to get the jab.

View attachment 252174

I don't object to these as aspirational goals, but I would definitely object to these as the metrics being applied for the so-called "plan".

 

[dajop]

I don't object to these as aspirational goals, but I would definitely object to these as the metrics being applied for the so-called "plan".

Yeh,I think we all know a good way of getting to say 80% vaccination rate would be to aim for 100%.

A bit like government infrastructure projects, if they want to keep spending to $7bn, best award the contract for $3.5bn.

 

[Lynda2475]

However, there has not been one single transmission recorded in Australia from someone who generated a false negative test, transmitted before they took & returned the negative result.

Because most of the positives have been in HQ with limited contacts to which to transmit.

They do not test HQ inmates daily, but we have had many cases of people testing negative on arrival, then testing positive on day 4 test. Obviously were capable of infecting in between day 1 and 4 if they had contact with someone - and sometimes that person was a family member in the same room.

Post automatically merged: Jul 5, 2021

I would definitely object to these as the metrics being applied for the so-called "plan"

That is my fear, we stay locked down because a few edge cases cant get vaxed or a few loonies refuse all vaccines.

 

[danpez]

A few edge cases? The government are dreaming of they think they'll get over 70% vaccinated. Especially when State and Federal Governments are sending conflicted messages. They are using people's lives as a political football.

The question is which party will make opening the borders an election promise with set dates with no get out clauses. Even then I won't believe it as they will weasel their way out of it one way or another.

Without some kind of civil unrest (which I never see happening as everyone bends over and takes it) we'll just have to suck up being prevented from international travel for the next few years until whoever is running the country eventually has no choice but to drop it.

 

[oznflfan]

A few edge cases? The government are dreaming of they think they'll get over 70% vaccinated. Especially when State and Federal Governments are sending conflicted messages. They are using people's lives as a political football.

The question is which party will make opening the borders an election promise with set dates with no get out clauses. Even then I won't believe it as they will weasel their way out of it one way or another.

Without some kind of civil unrest (which I never see happening as everyone bends over and takes it) we'll just have to suck up being prevented from international travel for the next few years until whoever is running the country eventually has no choice but to drop it.

Your last paragraph will stand correct. Eventually government's hand will be forced and we will open.

No political party will provide an opening date as it would be political suicide and jumped on by the other party. Best case complete election and the victor will then have time on their hands.

State premiers seem to hold all the cards lately, and to their credit WA, QLD and VIC have all stated the very correct message that we all agree on - allow everyone who wants a vaccine the chance to get one, give some time to educate them, a bit more time just for good measure, then set opening date for International Travel. Unvaccinated can the make choice to be protected. Government can't protect those who don't protect themselves.

Borders will open sometime in 2H of 2022, hopefully pointy end of that, 1/7/2022.

 

[danpez]

Yep, so people complaining about not having dates know why they will never give one until they actually have to open the borders.

 

[RAM]

Because most of the positives have been in HQ with limited contacts to which to transmit.

They do not test HQ inmates daily, but we have had many cases of people testing negative on arrival, then testing positive on day 4 test. Obviously were capable of infecting in between day 1 and 4 if they had contact with someone - and sometimes that person was a family member in the same room

My point is/was in relation to the limo driver who Dr Chant now concedes was not infected by the FedEx aircrew. Somebody else was the cause.

Nothing about negative tests in HQ.

Seems too much of a coincidence that the May unexplained outbreak was within the same area as where the limo driver lives. Joining the dots of the May outbreak visited locations in the SE (where the intial detected man lived) cover all the places the limo driver visited normally.

Just like with two of the December outbreaks and the May breach - it looks like the source of this outbreak will never be known.

 

[Lynda2475]

who Dr Chant now concedes was not infected by the FedEx aircrew

Except that she didnt concede that at all.

And BBQ and and Limo driver arent genomically linked.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

when talk of percentage needed for vaccination before borders are opened things like this needed to be strongly considered

Post automatically merged: Jul 5, 2021

also for a wider view

 

[oznflfan]

when talk of percentage needed for vaccination before borders are opened things like this needed to be strongly considered

View attachment 252188

Post automatically merged: Jul 5, 2021

also for a wider view

Would be overly complex calculation, but how about they split percentages into:

18 - 49 year olds 30%
50 - 69 year olds 50%
70+ 80%

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

If you look at the UK, vaccinations done in decreasing age brackets, and now there is only 50% populated, and this has resulted in 20,000 - 30,000 cases per day with 4 / 5 / 6 deaths a day.

 

[JB expat]

If you look at the UK, vaccinations done in decreasing age brackets, and now there is only 50% populated, and this has resulted in 20,000 - 30,000 cases per day with 4 / 5 / 6 deaths a day.

Are the deaths of vaccinated or unvaccinated? If vaccinated, are their other underlying conditions? Note, I'm not "pro death" - I am pro people taking responsibility for their own well-being, and this may be more evidence that such responsibility includes getting vaccinated. I do accept that vaccine supply and adequate time to become fully vaccinated are key to generally opening borders while I remain that there should be a process for those who are or become fully vaccinated before such time to leave and return without HQ.

 

[roogirl]

Meanwhile in victoria…

Victoria cannot afford to lose F1 grand prix, Nationals warn

I have no doubt it’ll go ahead and we will be patronisingly lectured to about how they’ve made it “covid safe”. Meanwhile
borders stay closed to Australian citizens without £££££s in the bank.