Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Pom-DownUnder]

i'm not wanting to be callous but i really think these two would fold over each other to a large degree ...

(Edit sorry, this was in reply to @dajop post)

 

[burmans]

I hear you, but the talk from politicians today is that getting to the 70/80% will not actually make that much of a difference after all. I don't see how this is going to resolve.

This depends a lot on which state you are in!

 

[ayushamity]

Soooo Gladys came out today and said that the 70/80% opening up rate is dependent on having around 30 to 40 cases a day (as per the Doherty Report).

So if cases stay in the 100's till December, bye bye any chance of opening borders even if 80% is reached.

 

[burmans]

Based on today's situation in NSW, Vic, ACT and NT I am feeling ever more gloomy about our prospects of opening international border any time soon. We certainly won't be opening any state borders in the near future. Over. It.

I think the key point here though is that you are basing this on today’s situation. Today’s situation is about 25% fully vaccinated but equally is pushing up that vaccination rate quickly. I just think it’s a mistake to think nothing will change with increasing vaccination rates to 70/80%, it has certainly changed the dynamics in every other country which has achieved this.
Perhaps not as fast as we want or as much as we want but definitely things will change.

 

[dajop]

i'm not wanting to be callous but i really think these two would fold over each other to a large degree ...

The challenge I think is to understand/model "excess deaths" in age group in the absence of controls. The analysis is easy to compare the current situation but there are all sorts of controls to prevent COVID causing too many deaths, take away those controls and where does that leave us?

At some point when vaccination rates reach 80% (I'm optimistic) the health experts and the media need to lead the discussion about ongoing Covid mortality (I single out health experts, politicians probably would not want to touch this). This in turn leads to discussions about travel bans.

TBH, if we're willing to live with 100 cases a day in the community travel restrictions as they should almost certainly reduce. I've said it before, right now in Sydney, you could put people arriving travellers into quarantine for 3 days, and those who are negative on Day 2 test get to leave HQ. (even those who are positive could, but that might be a bridge too far politically). This could allow caps to expand from 1500 to 6000 and at the same time de facto restrict it to NSW residents, as interstate travel restrictions would mean those leaving on Day 3 would still have to do 14 more days on return to their "home" state.

 

[oznflfan]

Based on today's situation in NSW, Vic, ACT and NT I am feeling ever more gloomy about our prospects of opening international border any time soon. We certainly won't be opening any state borders in the near future. Over. It.

Disagree, more cases = more + quicker vaccinations + no arguments on 'letting' COVID in (it'll be everywhere by end of 2021) = quicker dropping of International Border restrictions.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

The challenge I think is to understand/model "excess deaths" in age group in the absence of controls. The analysis is easy to compare the current situation but there are all sorts of controls to prevent COVID causing too many deaths, take away those controls and where does that leave us?

At some point when vaccination rates reach 80% (I'm optimistic) the health experts and the media need to lead the discussion about ongoing Covid mortality (I single out health experts, politicians probably would not want to touch this). This in turn leads to discussions about travel bans.

TBH, if we're willing to live with 100 cases a day in the community travel restrictions as they should almost certainly reduce. I've said it before, right now in Sydney, you could put people arriving travellers into quarantine for 3 days, and those who are negative on Day 2 test get to leave HQ. (even those who are positive could, but that might be a bridge too far politically). This could allow caps to expand from 1500 to 6000 and at the same time de facto restrict it to NSW residents, as interstate travel restrictions would mean those leaving on Day 3 would still have to do 14 more days on return to their "home" state.

once vaccine is across the population i dont want to hear the word cases ever again, its not tracked for anything else, flu for eg ... 302,000 in 2019 ... 58,000 in 2018 and 251,000 in 2017 ... massive swings but honestly did it effect your life at all!?!??!!? and how many more people who had the flu at home and just got on with it without a notification being registered
(812 deaths by the way).

 

[dajop]

Although I think we've already established in pre-vaccination or low vaccination environments, its not accurate to equate COVID with the flu. Fingers crossed post vaccination it will be not much different to the flu and lead to much more normal lives.

 

[burmans]

Perhaps not but it is reasonable to start to transition the discussion from cases to hospitilisations and death once we have some evidence locally that the rates of these are dropping (relative to case load).

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Perhaps not but it is reasonable to start to transition the discussion from cases to hospitilisations and death once we have some evidence locally that the rates of these are dropping (relative to case load).

That's going to be difficult to prove given the high case numbers in Sydney/NSW and the likely delay/lag in numbers for ICU and deaths.

 

[andye]

That's going to be difficult to prove given the high case numbers in Sydney/NSW and the likely delay/lag in numbers for ICU and deaths.

We do have a potential comparison for deaths/ICU with Victoria 2nd wave when there was no vaccination.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

We do have a potential comparison for deaths/ICU with Victoria 2nd wave when there was no vaccination.

True.....but

Delta is a game changer......

 

[Seat0B]

I think the key point here though is that you are basing this on today’s situation. Today’s situation is about 25% fully vaccinated but equally is pushing up that vaccination rate quickly. I just think it’s a mistake to think nothing will change with increasing vaccination rates to 70/80%, it has certainly changed the dynamics in every other country which has achieved this.
Perhaps not as fast as we want or as much as we want but definitely things will change.

Thanks @burmans - I need a bit of help to see the wood for the trees today. I just hope the pollies let us get on with life at the 80% mark, if we ever reach that.

 

[Seat0B]

Disagree, more cases = more + quicker vaccinations + no arguments on 'letting' COVID in (it'll be everywhere by end of 2021) = quicker dropping of International Border restrictions.

Oh I sure hope you are right @oznflfan. I am feeling very despondent again today, and I just want to get off the roller coaster of hope and despair.

 

[MelMel]

Perhaps not but it is reasonable to start to transition the discussion from cases to hospitilisations and death once we have some evidence locally that the rates of these are dropping (relative to case load).

Italy is already doing this - restrictions based on hospital/ICU numbers. At the moment their “critical” percentage is 0.3 of cases whereas Sydney is 0.9

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Italy is already doing this - restrictions based on hospital/ICU numbers. At the moment their “critical” percentage is 0.3 of cases whereas Sydney is 0.9

Interesting stat - Sydney is more than half unvaccinated, so the Italy measure might still be achievable

 

[dajop]

Perhaps not but it is reasonable to start to transition the discussion from cases to hospitilisations and death once we have some evidence locally that the rates of these are dropping (relative to case load).

Since crossing about 2/3 of total population fully vaccinated (and higher than 75% of eligible), earlier this month (now 75% of total population, probably well over 80% if those eligible), Ministry of Health in Singapore has changed their reporting. Hopefully Australian states move to this sort of approach as well. Spot the difference ...

 

[sjk]

That's going to be difficult to prove given the high case numbers in Sydney/NSW and the likely delay/lag in numbers for ICU and deaths.

It's going to be much easier to "prove" than in other parts of Australia.

 

[jakeseven7]

The Pinkenba quarantine facility in QLD will be operational sometime in the first half of next year: New 1000 bed quarantine facility confirmed

I do wonder if once these facilities are operational the state governments will want to close hotel quarantine and send everyone to these facilities rather than implement the home quarantine needed to ease international travel restrictions.

Who honestly even cares (no offence) by the time it’s completed why on earth will we need it

 

[N860CR]

I really think shame will get us across that line, the rest of the western world is getting on with it, as sad as the situation in SYD is, its 7 people yesterday. I mean ... what is this even comparable to? amount of people that fell off a ladder? accidentally took too many pills? death by motorvehicle? and we are shutting the country down for it. This will not stand long term.

The critical part; 7 people who would likely still be alive today has they chosen to get a vaccine that they were eligible for (in some cases, for as long as 6 months).