Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Flashback]

I went through all of AFF's April 2020 predictions and overall this is looking like the most accurate one. Well done.

Ummm....... nope?

 

[jb747]

I went through all of AFF's April 2020 predictions and overall this is looking like the most accurate one. Well done.

You very funny person.

 

[Virgin Bart]

Unfortunately it genuinely is one of the most accurate ones! The rest (myself included) were waaaaay too optimistic.

 

[jb747]

Unfortunately it genuinely is one of the most accurate ones! The rest (myself included) were waaaaay too optimistic.

Well, it hasn't come to fruition yet. I don't see national travel by the end of this year, much less international. I'll stick to my bet that we won't have unrestricted domestic until the second half of next year (though I expect that will still exclude WA). International, not until at least a year after the last lockdown. But, the airlines won't be back for other than a nibble, until all requirements for quarantine are gone.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

interest in numbers, i'm watching first jabs vs second jabs as I really think seeing how high a percentage of 'first jabs' gets to 80% will be the best indicator as i believe the number of people who will take first but not second jabs will be immaterial. Seen a few things where people are talking about prioritising first jabs for people to try and get 'some' coverage but they seem neck a neck from what I can see in the last few weeks.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

interest in numbers, i'm watching first jabs vs second jabs as I really think seeing how high a percentage of 'first jabs' gets to 80% will be the best indicator as i believe the number of people who will take first but not second jabs will be immaterial. Seen a few things where people are talking about prioritising first jabs for people to try and get 'some' coverage but they seem neck a neck from what I can see in the last few weeks.

View attachment 255470

Many 1st and 2nd jab appointments have been booked for a while, for weeks in some cases.......this is a function of not having enough available shots/appointments.

Maybe a good comparison is to see how 2nd shots compares to first shots 3, 4 and 6 weeks ago.

Many in Sydney would have brought forward 2nd shots, but less so in other parts of the country.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Many 1st and 2nd jab appointments have been booked for a while, for weeks in some cases.......this is a function of not having enough available shots/appointments.

Maybe a good comparison is to see how 2nd shots compares to first shots 3, 4 and 6 weeks ago.

Many in Sydney would have brought forward 2nd shots, but less so in other parts of the country.

thought there had been a number of people having their jabs cancelled as they were re-prioritised though? but yes you might well be right, i dont really have a dog in the fight just thought it was interesting and would be interesting for others mo shots mo shots!

 

[oznflfan]

Well, it hasn't come to fruition yet. I don't see national travel by the end of this year, much less international. I'll stick to my bet that we won't have unrestricted domestic until the second half of next year (though I expect that will still exclude WA). International, not until at least a year after the last lockdown. But, the airlines won't be back for other than a nibble, until all requirements for quarantine are gone.

Im pessimistic but you are too pessimistic. Unrestricted domestic by June 2022 and international by October 2022. Hopefully not though and both those days brought forward 3 to 4 months.

 

[oznflfan]

July 2022 Europe is calling, happy to book as changeable, probably Singapore Airlines as they are currently great prices AND they fully refunded failed Germany Greece flights October 2020 really fast. Think by Christmas I should have an idea as to its chances. Was 40% last week, now back to 50%. NZ 4 stage plan has brought my spirits up a bit, they'll force our PM's hand in 2Q 2022.

 

[jakeseven7]

July 2022 Europe is calling, happy to book as changeable, probably Singapore Airlines as they are currently great prices AND they fully refunded failed Germany Greece flights October 2020 really fast. Think by Christmas I should have an idea as to its chances. Was 40% last week, now back to 50%. NZ 4 stage plan has brought my spirits up a bit, they'll force our PM's hand in 2Q 2022.

Much KrisFlyer avails mid next year?

 

[oznflfan]

Much KrisFlyer avails mid next year?

No, using cash money. $1,400 Darwin Milan return pretty good to me.

 

[MARTINE]

Wot?!?

No, using cash money. $1,400 Darwin Milan return pretty good to me.

$1400 return that’s amaaazing…. I looove SQ … there is no better airport in the planet than Changi IMHO….fly star alliance exclusively … not that my gold status will be worth much after July next year…

 

[Flashback]

Wot?!?

$1400 return that’s amaaazing…. I looove SQ … there is no better airport in the planet than Changi IMHO….fly star alliance exclusively … not that my gold status will be worth much after July next year…

*A Gold status has never been worth much anyway.

 

[I love to travel]

Wot?!?

$1400 return that’s amaaazing…. I looove SQ … there is no better airport in the planet than Changi IMHO….fly star alliance exclusively … not that my gold status will be worth much after July next year…

@MARTINE We need to do some work with you. You need to be aiming for J or F class. Do you churn credit cards?

 

[MARTINE]

@MARTINE We need to do some work with you. You need to be aiming for J or F class. Do you churn credit cards?

I always fly J - And pay …!
You are right Gold Status not worth much except luggage tags but useful (when one flew) VA domestic.
I just miss SQ flights sooooo much

 

[N860CR]

So apparently transport etc contracts for Howard springs have gone out to tender for…… another 5 years.

For once, let’s hope this is just a blatant waste of public funds rather than a realistic expectation

 

[Pushka]

So apparently transport etc contracts for Howard springs have gone out to tender for…… another 5 years.

For once, let’s hope this is just a blatant waste of public funds rather than a realistic expectation

Let's look on the bright side. It's going to be needed for unvaccinated people from high risk countries.

 

[bulldog88]

My understanding is - vaccines don't prevent infection, but vaccines reduce the likelihood of more serious illness (ie. stopping Covid moving down to the respiratory tract).

So people who are vaccinated will get infected, might have a "light flu" for a week or two, and might suffer some random "Covid" side-effects.

And if there is a bad mutation, with borders open it will be really hard to prevent a big spread.

Is Australia ready to live with that in 2022 ? I doubt it

 

[burmans]

My understanding is - vaccines don't prevent infection, but vaccines reduce the likelihood of more serious illness (ie. stopping Covid moving down to the respiratory tract).

So people who are vaccinated will get infected, might have a "light flu" for a week or two, and might suffer some random "Covid" side-effects.

And if there is a bad mutation, with borders open it will be really hard to prevent a big spread.

Is Australia ready to live with that in 2022 ? I doubt it

Why not, we don’t close our borders for a bad flu season and that’s essentially what we are aiming for, to reduce the severity of the virus to be similar to or less than that of the flu.

 

[somebol]

been hearing murmurs about international borders opening up in some capacity by December.
Hope it happens.