Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[dajop]

a joke and frankly pathetic from the Morrison government. The "plan" for when 80% is achieved - if it ever happens - still doesn't lay out any details on fully vaxxed Aussies and what happens when they come home apart from them being outside of the caps and possibly "proportionate quarantine".

Ardern even said the pilot/trial will happen in October. We have zero details on the trial in Australia - apart from some paralympians will be involved.

Announcements were made, what do you expect, follow up on the announcements?

There will be another announcement soon about making more announcements.

And by then everyone will have forgotten about the trial that was supposed to happen in SA.

 

[coyote25]

People might be interested in this article that outlines projects of 70% and 80% vaccination rates for eligible individuals.

Tracking Schedule

Projected dates for 70% and 80% vaccination rates
Victoria 19/11 for 70% and 10/12/21 for 80% (4 months / 120 days from today).

NSW is expected to hit these earlier.

So at least some hope if planning on travelling in 2022.

 

[dajop]

Anyone else excited about this? Image if NZ pumping with international tourists in March next year and we are still fluffing around with state border closures.

The different coverage of this I've read and listened to suggests these new processes will be for the return of NZ'ers. So it seems that for vaccinated NZ'ers living in or visiting "Green" countries (remembering NZ'ers are allowed to leave) there will be no longer a need to do MIQ. I don't think the plan is yet to translate that to foreign visitors.

I very much doubt NZ will be "pumping" with international tourists come March. Some way to go for that yet.

 

[mviy]

People might be interested in this article that outlines projects of 70% and 80% vaccination rates for eligible individuals.

Tracking Schedule

Projected dates for 70% and 80% vaccination rates
Victoria 19/11 for 70% and 10/12/21 for 80% (4 months / 120 days from today).

NSW is expected to hit these earlier.

So at least some hope if planning on travelling in 2022.

I'm still clinging to slim hopes of travelling at the end of this year or very early next year.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

not sure what the calculators know that we dont but my maths shows:

 

[oznflfan]

not sure what the calculators know that we dont but my maths shows:

View attachment 255405

I WOULD BE ECSTATIC IF IT EVEN TOOK TWICE THIS LONG.

 

[mviy]

Early November would be fantastic for reaching 80%.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

i'm assuming they must be adding some sort of "two to three weeks for shots to become effective" time period?

 

[hb13]

The vaccination rates right now are actually quite good. The pace is the same as the UK's program at its best. It's nice that they're finally reaching this point - even though it is 6 months later.

The big question regarding borders however, is what happens when we hit 80%? And by that I mean what actually happens to Aussies coming to Oz who are fully jabbed. Is it still going to be 2 weeks of quarantine? We have been told that these people will be able to come outside the caps - but is quarantine still going to be required?

 

[Princess Fiona]

The vaccination rates right now are actually quite good. The pace is the same as the UK's program at its best. It's nice that they're finally reaching this point - even though it is 6 months later.

The big question regarding borders however, is what happens when we hit 80%? And by that I mean what actually happens to Aussies coming to Oz who are fully jabbed. Is it still going to be 2 weeks of quarantine? We have been told that these people will be able to come outside the caps - but is quarantine still going to be required?

I’m hopeful the more progressive states will have Negative pre-test before arrival and some sort of home ISO/ test to release.

 

[Must...Fly!]

I’m hopeful the more progressive states will have Negative pre-test before arrival and some sort of home ISO/ test to release.

Domestic travel with this sort of arrangement would be at least a start. With a specific end/sunset date.

 

[hb13]

I’m hopeful the more progressive states will have Negative pre-test before arrival and some sort of home ISO/ test to release.

Is it possible for some states to do this - i.e. accept International arrivals on their own with no caps/reduced caps/etc? I imagine Sydney would jump at the chance - but I thought the Federal government said they won't allow this?

I hope it is possible - but I wasn't sure if it was.

 

[Princess Fiona]

Is it possible for some states to do this - i.e. accept International arrivals on their own with no caps/reduced caps/etc? I imagine Sydney would jump at the chance - but I thought the Federal government said they won't allow this?

I hope it is possible - but I wasn't sure if it was.

As above with @Must...Fly! I imagine / am hopeful that this would start with Domestic travel (WA jumped the gun here) and then spread to International.
Anything is possible in a pandemic and I would imagine they will be looking closely at the NZ approach with risk stratification of arrivals.
It makes zero sense moving forward to categorize every international arrival as if they are spreading Ebola.

 

[Pushka]

As above with @Must...Fly! I imagine / am hopeful that this would start with Domestic travel (WA jumped the gun here) and then spread to International.
Anything is possible in a pandemic and I would imagine they will be looking closely at the NZ approach with risk stratification of arrivals.
It makes zero sense moving forward to categorize every international arrival as if they are spreading Ebola.

I must say it’s really refreshing reading about your approach as a front line worker. Gives me some hope for the future. Thankyou.

 

[Princess Fiona]

I must say it’s really refreshing reading about your approach as a front line worker. Gives me some hope for the future. Thankyou.

Thank you !!! That means a lot to me

 

[burmans]

i'm assuming they must be adding some sort of "two to three weeks for shots to become effective" time period?

No

 

[burmans]

The vaccination rates right now are actually quite good. The pace is the same as the UK's program at its best. It's nice that they're finally reaching this point - even though it is 6 months later.

The big question regarding borders however, is what happens when we hit 80%? And by that I mean what actually happens to Aussies coming to Oz who are fully jabbed. Is it still going to be 2 weeks of quarantine? We have been told that these people will be able to come outside the caps - but is quarantine still going to be required?

The vaccination rates now are great but we shouldn’t assume they will remain great for ever. Next month or two yes but they will inevitably slow down. I’m still comfortable we will get there but we do need to temper our expectations slightly. The UK aren’t at 80% yet, close and I’m confident they will get there but we are still a long way behind them.

I’m not negative about hitting 80% at all but think we need to be cautiously optimistic rather than full out. Still pretty confident on the 80% before EOY but think October or November is overly optimistic, would be great to be proved wrong though.

 

[kamchatsky]

I’m hopeful the more progressive states will have Negative pre-test before arrival and some sort of home ISO/ test to release.

My guess is that this only works for people who live within the same state as the capital city that they arrive in, and not connecting flights. e.g sin-syd-adl

 

[Virgin Bart]

Domestic travel for Christmas 2020.

'Safe' international June 2021. i.e. NZ,

Rest of the world, if we're lucky Christmas 2021.

I went through all of AFF's April 2020 predictions and overall this is looking like the most accurate one. Well done.

 

[MARTINE]

Domestic travel with this sort of arrangement would be at least a start. With a specific end/sunset date.

….yes please…