Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[antycbr]

While the Feds have quarantine powers, it is the states who will decide whether 14 (as they currently do), or 7 or whatever. As others have said, there are a lot of strings to pull together, and some will commit regardless given that they are determined to travel asap.

Or they plan to take a few months on the basis that quarantine may be fundamentally changed or abolished when they come back in 3 months or so.

 

[dajop]

Qantas, plus:
-Hawaiian
-Air Canada
-Fiji Airways
-Air New Zealand
-JAL
-Etihad
-SirLankan

As of today, seats available in mid December from either Europe or North America destinations. I gave up searching after that, there could be more.

At what price levels? On Kayak it only seemed to bring up FJ cheap (this was ex-LHR) + limited QF at about $3K (arriving in Australia by 17th in time for Xmas). The rest were much more expensive. I assume that FJ will cancel if caps remain in place, and if the caps don't remain in place, other will open up inventory. so not worth the detour via NAN. I really don't see any reason to book now rather than wait for CX, QR, SQ and EK to open inventory.

If booking now - I'd want to actually reach Australia by the 10th - in case caps /14 day quarantine remain. It's binary. Either they will remain, in which need to be back by 9th or 10th to make Xmas. Or they will be lifted in which case inventory will open up on various carriers and you can book as soon as that happens.

 

[justinbrett]

At what price levels? On Kayak it only seemed to bring up FJ cheap (this was ex-LHR) + limited QF at about $3K (arriving in Australia by 17th in time for Xmas). The rest were much more expensive. I assume that FJ will cancel if caps remain in place, and if the caps don't remain in place, other will open up inventory. so not worth the detour via NAN. I really don't see any reason to book now rather than wait for CX, QR, SQ and EK to open inventory.

If booking now - I'd want to actually reach Australia by the 10th - in case caps /14 day quarantine remain. It's binary. Either they will remain, in which need to be back by 9th or 10th to make Xmas. Or they will be lifted in which case inventory will open up on various carriers and you can book as soon as that happens.

JAL can get you LHR-HND-SYD on 06 Dec for $3500 (not overnight in HND so it's permitted transit).

Fiji can get you LAX-NAN-SYD for $859 the same day.

There are flights there, you just have to look.

 

[dajop]

JAL can get you LHR-HND-SYD on 06 Dec for $3500 (not overnight in HND so it's permitted transit).

Fiji can get you LAX-NAN-SYD for $859 the same day.

There are flights there, you just have to look.

Yes, JAL a good option for people who want certainty and are prepared to pay $3500/pax plus the quarantine fees. If home quarantine comes to reality there will be at an instance an extra 18,000 seats a week put into Sydney, and I suspect fares will be considerably lower than that.

FJ - provides certainty of a secure seat if home quarantine comes into reality. But if it doesn't, and the caps remain, FJ will almost certainly be cancelled (they've been selling these sort of fares on and off at different times, at one point during April they were selling fares in Aug/Sep for $700 SIN-MEL, that didn't go ahead). . I still don't see a compelling case for booking now vs waiting for those 18,000 seats to open up.

 

[Virgin Bart]

Qantas, plus:
-Hawaiian
-Air Canada
-Fiji Airways
-Air New Zealand
-JAL
-Etihad
-SirLankan

As of today, seats available in mid December from either Europe or North America destinations. I gave up searching after that, there could be more.

This could be a very useful thread on its own.

 

[justinbrett]

Yes, JAL a good option for people who want certainty and are prepared to pay $3500/pax plus the quarantine fees. If home quarantine comes to reality there will be at an instance an extra 18,000 seats a week put into Sydney, and I suspect fares will be considerably lower than that.

FJ - provides certainty of a secure seat if home quarantine comes into reality. But if it doesn't, and the caps remain, FJ will almost certainly be cancelled (they've been selling these sort of fares on and off at different times, at one point during April they were selling fares in Aug/Sep for $700 SIN-MEL, that didn't go ahead). . I still don't see a compelling case for booking now vs waiting for those 18,000 seats to open up.

One way fares from Europe & USA to Australia at Christmas have always been expensive.

If you're coming into NSW you have nothing to worry about. If other states, might be safer to plan to stay in NSW first before onwards travel until they provide the level of commitment to opening that NSW has (which has only been strengthened by the new Premier).

There's simply no going back now, especially now the cases are dropping exactly as predicted. The modelling looks good and they'll continue to trust it.

 

[Pushka]

In the NAB just now paying funds for house purchase. In walks woman - mask less and a young man. She explained she had just picked him up from med hotel. He had just arrived from Vietnam and was a student. How the heck did he get approval let alone a flight? And why wasn’t she wearing a mask! The student was. Interesting watching the NAB banker take a step back as maskless woman explained he’d just arrived from a med hotel too.

 

[ayushamity]

13 days away from reaching 80% DD in NSW and with Dom on the helm, hopefully instant raising of travel caps.

Yet no sign of airlines increasing capacity on existing flights pencilled in after that date.

 

[drron]

In the NAB just now paying funds for house purchase. In walks woman - mask less and a young man. She explained she had just picked him up from med hotel. He had just arrived from Vietnam and was a student. How the heck did he get approval let alone a flight? And why wasn’t she wearing a mask! The student was. Interesting watching the NAB banker take a step back as maskless woman explained he’d just arrived from a med hotel too.

Well it is Adelaide.

 

[MARTINE]

Well it is Adelaide.

Interesting…have people noticed how the NAB ads on TV have their logo but say JAB… I liked it

 

[guiguioz]

very limited options as well for inbound flights in Jan into SYD
only option really is QF (which would involve another carrier - like AF - from ports like CDG into SIN)
agree that prices will drop with a lot more options from Europe into AUS once CX/SQ/EK/QR/EY release inventory

 

[dajop]

One way fares from Europe & USA to Australia at Christmas have always been expensive.

If you're coming into NSW you have nothing to worry about. If other states, might be safer to plan to stay in NSW first before onwards travel until they provide the level of commitment to opening that NSW has (which has only been strengthened by the new Premier).
it.

$3.5K one way economy is not a normal fare, even for Xmas. It is a pandemic limited capacity fare that has been there (on and off, depending on what the current cap is) throughout the pandemic. JL will probably lower that if caps are removed.

But why not wait? There are at least 4 major carriers (EK, SQ, CX and QR) and some minor ones (TR) from Asia/Europe and 2 major carriers from US (UA/DL) flying virtually empty planes into Australia every day. And I bet AA could relaunch quickly too. When they release 18,000 seats a week into Sydney alone (without foreign travellers allowed and I suspect very few of those wanting to depart AU wanting to return at least a week before Xmas) that will provide a significant amount of capacity and should see some much more competitive airfares. I really see minimal downside to waiting.

 

[ayushamity]

SA straying from Australia’s international border plan

South Australia will not follow the Prime Minister’s opening plan for international borders because the circumstances in that state are “different”.

www.news.com.au

There goes SA...

 

[Pushka]

SA straying from Australia’s international border plan

South Australia will not follow the Prime Minister’s opening plan for international borders because the circumstances in that state are “different”.

www.news.com.au

There goes SA...

 

[Astro]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1445601419277443085

 

[justinbrett]

At least it is permitting international arrivals and home quarantine - even if it's twice as long.

QLD and WA probably won't even have that.

 

[ayushamity]

WA Premier Mark McGowan holds firm setting overseas travel date, baulks at home quarantine

The WA Premier says he won't be rushed into welcoming international travellers back into the state, and would set a date once WA reached a vaccination rate between 80 and 90 per cent.

www.abc.net.au

Well we always knew this..

 

[Pushka]

At least it is permitting international arrivals and home quarantine - even if it's just as long.

QLD and WA probably won't even have that.

True. If NSW Vic borders are open and no hotspots visited then maybe home quarantine in an AirBnB interstate...they still want to protect the lack of community spread. "Too much to lose". I see a karma bus on the horizon then he's nothing left to lose. Covid Zero Unicorn.

 

[drron]

WA Premier Mark McGowan holds firm setting overseas travel date, baulks at home quarantine

The WA Premier says he won't be rushed into welcoming international travellers back into the state, and would set a date once WA reached a vaccination rate between 80 and 90 per cent.

www.abc.net.au

Well we always knew this..

Amazing that in that article it says that WA has a vaccine Commander who is working on a vaccine mandate for schoolies.
I would suggest that he forget that and spend all of his time working out how to increase the States Miserable vaccination rate.

 

[antycbr]

WA Premier Mark McGowan holds firm setting overseas travel date, baulks at home quarantine

The WA Premier says he won't be rushed into welcoming international travellers back into the state, and would set a date once WA reached a vaccination rate between 80 and 90 per cent.

www.abc.net.au

Well we always knew this..

There’s a full on war occurring on social media in WA between people who want to be safe and people who don’t like being locked in. Every day closer to Christmas the frustration is mounting, and then you have airlines like QF announcing their withdrawal of international service. Once the NSW border is open (thanks Dom!) the pressure will go to a whole new level…