Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[MEL_Traveller]

I'd love to understand more about the capacity issue because everyone is using it as a dead end answer....

Is it public health staff and ADF/police capacity issue? Because it is definitely not a physical infrastructure capacity issue!

No hotel can be compelled to offer quarantine I would have thought. So maybe the list of hotels willing to participate is limited? Maybe the government has to buy every room? So maybe not all hotels are suitable. Then you have the other logistics you mention with health staff and security.

 

[Gremlin]

Can the government forcibly take over hotels?
I’d imagine plenty of hotels don’t want to be a part of the process so capacity could be an issue if not enough hotels are onboard.
At a guess though I’d presume staffing is more the issue

I commented on the capacity issue in the other thread.

I was told by a hotel exec that it is possible they can be compelled by the Federal Government in the event of an emergency but no one seriously thinks that’s a possibility.

Even in the worst of times, I would’ve thought that government compulsion of a business is the very last resort for any political leader. Especially a PM who is right of centre.

The short version is not enough hotels willing or able to participate on commercial terms. No real incentive from the various governments who are funding this (even those who have moved to “User Pays” are still picking up substantial costs here) to offer more generous terms.

 

[p--and--t]

I was told by a hotel exec that it is possible they can be compelled by the Federal Government in the event of an emergency

Even in the worst of times, I would’ve thought that government compulsion of a business is the very last resort for any political leader. Especially a PM who is right of centre.

I think you are on the money with both those statements.

Governments have the power to do just about anything and somewhere on AFF I posted a link to the act that covers pandemics (and it is very broad-reaching, from memory including forcing vaccinations, forcing testing, arrests for non-compliance etc etc etc)

 

[jakeseven7]

No hotel can be compelled to offer quarantine I would have thought. So maybe the list of hotels willing to participate is limited?

Apparently the tourism council polled QLD hotels and had an overwhelming response to participate (note: it was done after Victoria residents were restricted from visiting). Some regions visitation is 50% international - all gone and 20% Victoria - all gone. So what else are you to do?

So I guess its actually the QLD government ability and capacity to manage, rather than the airlines and hotels.

And I suppose after the quarantine leaks in Melbourne and Sydney, other states are nervous they might have the same issue and don't want to take the risk so just say they have a capacity issue... who knows...

 

[jase05]

The PM has just announced that as of Monday, arrivals will be reduced by 50% per week and passengers will now be required to pay for quarantine hotels

 

[dajop]

You buggers far too pessimistic. So many changes in last 4 months, imagine the changes in the next 16 months. FOR SURE International travel in 2021, without a doubt. Maybe not everywhere and not very beginning of 2021, but I would be very surprised if we can't travel to the many (less COVID than us) SE Asian countries by mid next year. Dollars always win out over everything else, even health. Mark my words.

I like to be glass half full, but with the hysteria around at the moment, and the clear aims of several states for elimination, I just can't see unfettered international travel. Maybe, just maybe in 2021, there could be an application process for non essential travel with the following conditions:
- Pre-pay for 2 weeks quarantine and COVID testing on return
- Demonstrate travel insurance, that covers COVID for duration
- Insurance to pay for treatment on return if testing positive within 2 weeks of return.

 

[Gremlin]

Apparently the tourism council polled QLD hotels and had an overwhelming response to participate (note: it was done after Victoria residents were restricted from visiting). Some regions visitation is 50% international - all gone and 20% Victoria - all gone. So what else are you to do?

So I guess its actually the QLD government ability and capacity to manage, rather than the airlines and hotels.

And I suppose after the quarantine leaks in Melbourne and Sydney, other states are nervous they might have the same issue and don't want to take the risk so just say they have a capacity issue... who knows...

It's all well and good for the tourism council to ask who would be interested in participating. I'm sure if I ran a survey asking if they'd like more customers, it's going to be a pretty overwhelming "yes". Unfortunately, it turns out that when asked directly by state governments around the country and the terms of signing up are properly spelt out, then that enthusiasm has disappeared.

Bear in mind, this is not just a Qld issue. NSW and WA have both proactively asked the Federal Govt to reduce their intake. It can hardly be the fault of the Qld Govt that NSW wants to reduce its capacity.

 

[PineappleSkip]

This all appears to be in place already for essential travel

- Pre-pay for 2 weeks quarantine and COVID testing on return
- Demonstrate travel insurance, that covers COVID for duration
- Insurance to pay for treatment on return if testing positive within 2 weeks of return.

The first two I have seen multiple accounts of there being required before departure as a condition of travel ban exemption approval. The last is Medicare - universal health insurance - or private cover.

BTW There was a news report of QT Surfers agreeing to be booked out by Qld Govt - and cancelling reservations of those who had booked. I expect agreeing or not would be a commercial decision on their part.

cheers skip

 

[TiredOldFlyer]

Shock ,Horror.
No International Flights until a Vacine ?

 

[Nathant123]

Shock ,Horror.
No International Flights until a Vacine ?

I've read reports which suggest a vaccine is a very long way off, if its even possible to create. I suspect more accurate testing with faster results is more likely though you could test negative on departure and turn out positive on arrival. It may get to a point where the economy can suffer no more and everything opens, we stop counting and life goes on for most. Parts of Europe are already open for travel without the need to isolate and they're still receiving consistently higher daily infections, same with the UAE and Qatar for example. Are we just delaying the inevitable?

 

[jakeseven7]

It's all well and good for the tourism council to ask who would be interested in participating. I'm sure if I ran a survey asking if they'd like more customers, it's going to be a pretty overwhelming "yes". Unfortunately, it turns out that when asked directly by state governments around the country and the terms of signing up are properly spelt out, then that enthusiasm has disappeared.

Bear in mind, this is not just a Qld issue. NSW and WA have both proactively asked the Federal Govt to reduce their intake. It can hardly be the fault of the Qld Govt that NSW wants to reduce its capacity.

That’s not what the QLD department of health said today, they said they had internal capacity constraints not hotel and airline constraints. Pretty obviously.

Personally I don’t care about NSW (Sorry), I think there is an opportunity to keep our dying QLD tourism industry on life support if we could work out a way to solve the internal gov capacity constraints here. Could be a real opportunity...

 

[jakeseven7]

BTW There was a news report of QT Surfers agreeing to be booked out by Qld Govt - and cancelling reservations of those who had booked. I expect agreeing or not would be a commercial decision on their part.

cheers skip

Every hotel in surfers is dying a slow painful death as the September cliff approaches, they’d be mad not to go for this. No international tourists, no Victorian tourists - bang 60% of your customers gone. Minimum.

 

[dajop]

The last is Medicare - universal health insurance - or private cover.

And I suspect this is a sticking point for allowing non-essential travel. The resources it takes from people getting sick with COVID acquired on their overseas holiday could be significant.

Singapore government, as an example, don't prevent citizens and residents from going overseas (thank goodness from my perspective) but require you to pay for all treatment for COVID should you test positive within 14 days of return, and you can't even use your personal medical savings (accumulated within super equivalent) or government medical insurance, just private insurance.

 

[Gremlin]

That’s not what the QLD department of health said today, they said they had internal capacity constraints not hotel and airline constraints. Pretty obviously.

Personally I don’t care about NSW (Sorry), I think there is an opportunity to keep our dying QLD tourism industry on life support if we could work out a way to solve the internal gov capacity constraints here. Could be a real opportunity...

Meh whatever...

My sources on this are Senior Execs at a number of the hotels and chains. People I've known for twenty-something years in my career. Individuals who have been directly approached by various state Health departments around the country, including Qld, asking for their hotels to be involved. The ones who actually made the decisions to say 'no' and who, had they said 'yes', would be the ones whose signatures would be on the government contracts you assert they are all desperate to sign up to. Some of whom have lived and breathed the hotel industry longer than many of us have been alive. All of whom are doing their level best to reinvigorate their businesses and industry, yet have still chosen to make the hard, but most likely correct, business decision to say 'no' to quarantined pax in their properties.

Your sources are a tourism council survey and a third hand Qld department of health media release.

How about we just agree to disagree? I'm done with this line of comment.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I agree it could be a bit of a tough sell for a hotel to become a quarantine station. Short term gain maybe, but long term? Not an easy market to prospective customers down the track to have been the home of confirmed virus cases (as a customer I might choose another place first).

 

[ja1]

I think you are on the money with both those statements.

Governments have the power to do just about anything and somewhere on AFF I posted a link to the act that covers pandemics (and it is very broad-reaching, from memory including forcing vaccinations, forcing testing, arrests for non-compliance etc etc etc)

It is more accurate to say that a government can do anything that legislation allows. A government could use its executive powers but the courts have the ability to stop that if it's interpreted as not following legislation. i.e even the government (on paper anyway) is not above the law. You do have to take the issue to the courts to rule on though..

For the government to 'take over a hotel' it would have to demonstrate the relevant legislation (I can't immediately think of what might be applicable) it's doing this under. Noting the powers the government has to shut things down (e.g. public safety act) are certainly not the same as 'taking it over'.

In many cases there are provisions for Governments to take things over but they are required to provide fair compensation as part of the process.

I think earlier statements are more accurate - the Government has negotiated commercial terms with some hotels (or groups). In some cases those groups may be regretting this arrangement now (it's arguable that the Stamford brand has been damaged - possibly a lot - by their commercial arrangement. Their management has been at pains to point out that any issues there have been caused by state government actions and aren't attributable to any actions by the actual hotel or their staff..)

 

[ja1]

Personally I don’t care about NSW (Sorry), I think there is an opportunity to keep our dying QLD tourism industry on life support if we could work out a way to solve the internal gov capacity constraints here. Could be a real opportunity...

Every 'opportunity' for an individual business or an industry that relies on people coming together has an equal opportunity for death and suffering. It's really as simple as that.

I can certainly understand your line of thinking Jake (I've been following it across several threads!) and I think it might even reflect the majority position. However the bare reality is that for every business or even a whole industry that might die out - they still aren't real people directly. You can 'kill' every company in Queensland and no actual people will directly die as a result.

Any 'life support' decisions would seem to be most effective if in the process of providing 'life' to the company or industry it doesn't end up taking life from actual people as a result.

Without wanting to sound too mean about it, the binary decision is either being Donald Trump or Jair Bolsonaro on one side.. or being on the other side. My opinion is that AnnaP and DanA are on the side of keeping people alive > keeping non people (businesses) alive.

 

[ja1]

I've read reports which suggest a vaccine is a very long way off, if its even possible to create. I suspect more accurate testing with faster results is more likely though you could test negative on departure and turn out positive on arrival. It may get to a point where the economy can suffer no more and everything opens, we stop counting and life goes on for most. Parts of Europe are already open for travel without the need to isolate and they're still receiving consistently higher daily infections, same with the UAE and Qatar for example. Are we just delaying the inevitable?

The current thinking is that:

- A vaccine for this virus has never been created previously
- There are very 'good' results in the Oxford trials to date
- The thinking around timeframe is the very very optimistic result would be 12-18 months (from now)
- Very few scientists (actual researchers, biology and virology) that I've directly talked to have any confidence that timeframe is 'real' because it would be years faster than anything ever achieved before - but it isn't actually impossible. Just improbable
- The effectiveness of any vaccine is still being debated - e.g. 40% effectiveness (like cold/flu now) compared to 97% effective (for MMR).

When you make a statement about the 'economy' can suffer no more - please keep in mind it isn't a real person. It doesn't actually suffer like a real person. It can't actually die either. The people aren't ever coming back (after they have died) and some of there will be very severely damaged even when they have survived.

To put it in prosaic terms, the US has already shown the way around putting their economy first. ~150K dead people so far is the price paid and it will be a lot more.

I don't suggest there are any easy answers to this (and to tie this back to the question about when international flights resume) but I am always reminded of one of the most power ads I have seen about reducing the road toll in NSW. 50 people a year dying was seen as reasonable by an average guy in NSW until the 50 people were made of his own family and friends. And at that point zero deaths was much more palatable.

I can't wait to be able to travel overseas again but I can't think of anyone I am willing to have die to let me do that. I can think of a few people that we might be better off without on this planet and may be willing to trade them for my ability to have a job and work.. but even that requires some thought..

 

[p--and--t]

It is more accurate to say that a government can do anything that legislation allows

Yep..... and if they have the numbers can change it whenever they like. AKA Johnnie deciding to redefine marriage one way, and a few years later it being redefined the other way.

 

[jakeseven7]

Meh whatever...

My sources on this are Senior Execs at a number of the hotels and chains. People I've known for twenty-something years in my career. Individuals who have been directly approached by various state Health departments around the country, including Qld, asking for their hotels to be involved. The ones who actually made the decisions to say 'no' and who, had they said 'yes', would be the ones whose signatures would be on the government contracts you assert they are all desperate to sign up to. Some of whom have lived and breathed the hotel industry longer than many of us have been alive. All of whom are doing their level best to reinvigorate their businesses and industry, yet have still chosen to make the hard, but most likely correct, business decision to say 'no' to quarantined pax in their properties.

Your sources are a tourism council survey and a third hand Qld department of health media release.

How about we just agree to disagree? I'm done with this line of comment.

Sure thing - there are clearly a lot of people out there that have have very different points of view and access to different levels of information to those you have approached and that is fine we live in a democracy and sharing and discussing ideas is healthy!