Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[kpc]

As a Sydneysider, I can't go to WA, SA, NT, and TAS; I suspect QLD will soon close the doors to us again as well, and VIC is the only place i can go but who wants to go there now...nevermind international borders and OS! If I can go OS in the 2nd 1/2 of 2021 it will be a major bonus and surprise!!

 

[dajop]

As a Sydneysider, I can't go to WA, SA, NT, and TAS; I suspect QLD will soon close the doors to us again as well, and VIC is the only place i can go but who wants to go there now...nevermind international borders and OS! If I can go OS in the 2nd 1/2 of 2021 it will be a major bonus and surprise!!

At least you can go to Tweed Heads, Eden, Tibooburra, Wentworth and everywhere in between. At the moment, in theory Melburnians can't go past their local shopping centre unless they're going to work.

 

[VPS]

Just a tad optimistic ???

The OP does have a habit of predicting that we'll all be flying very soon - personally I think they are dreaming if they think we'll be going anyway for at least 9 months maybe longer

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I started off being reasonably optimistic, but not on the way silly side. But in terms of longhaul international travel I am now becoming more and more pessimistic.

Pre-CV 19 2021 originally was going to be the year of our big South American adventure with many months to be spent there. But now I very much doubt that I will be taking a longhaul flight to anywhere in the world , let alone South America in 2021.

Even IF a suitable vaccine is developed, or possibly rather a suite of vaccines to gain both short and longterm protection, sometime in 2021 it will still take a long time to get a reasonable number of people vaccinated.

Also remember that a vaccine is most unlikely to be 100% effective, and so to be reasonably protected you need both the jab yourself, and most of the population to have been jabbed just in case it does not work directly for you. And not just here but in the country that you want to travel to. This is worse for me as my travel taste is often to more remote and poorer locations.


Maybe Qantas should start regular sightseeing flights to Antarctica just so those of us hankerking for a flight to another continent can kind of get one They may just find a good market niche in it.

 

[Ric]

I believe this one a lot more ...

Merck CEO says raising COVID-19 vaccine hopes 'a grave disservice' -report | Health

COVID-19 vaccines under development are not guaranteed to work and people who say to expect a vaccine before year-end are doing a "grave disservice to the public," Merck & Co Inc's chief said, according to a Harvard Business Review report. The potential vaccines may not have the qualities...

www.devdiscourse.com

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Just on visiting countries that achieve a good vaccination rate should one become available.

I was just watching CNN last night (admittedly biased to the left) and they were discussing about how many people in the USA would not be willing to actually get vaccinated and this may be as high as 1 in 3 people based on a past survey. It was also speculated that this may not stay as high if infection rates continue to climb. However there is a strong anti-mask sentiment by many in the USA as well.

So I wonder which countries where it may not just be availability of the vaccine for the general populace, but also the willingness of the general population to get vaccinated that may limit the suitability of that country to be travelled to.

 

[oznflfan]

I started off being reasonably optimistic, but not on the way silly side. But in terms of longhaul international travel I am now becoming more and more pessimistic.

Pre-CV 19 2021 originally was going to be the year of our big South American adventure with many months to be spent there. But now I very much doubt that I will be taking a longhaul flight to anywhere in the world , let alone South America in 2021.

Even IF a suitable vaccine is developed, or possibly rather a suite of vaccines to gain both short and longterm protection, sometime in 2021 it will still take a long time to get a reasonable number of people vaccinated.

Also remember that a vaccine is most unlikely to be 100% effective, and so to be reasonably protected you need both the jab yourself, and most of the population to have been jabbed just in case it does not work directly for you. And not just here but in the country that you want to travel to. This is worse for me as my travel taste is often to more remote and poorer locations.


Maybe Qantas should start regular sightseeing flights to Antarctica just so those of us hankerking for a flight to another continent can kind of get one They may just find a good market niche in it.

Agree, only a month ago I suggested SE Asia March next year and Europe 2nd half 2021. Getting more pessimistic now however day by day. Even if we sort ourselves out and this second spike reduces back to minimal, the rest of the world ain't helping. Stupid yanks will soon be 100,000 cases per day in their ignorant wisdom of not listening to anybody and beating to their own drum. South America just as bad, and South Africa now starting the COVID train for Africa.

Can't see Scomo allowing us to leave the country until the world is down to minimal COVID numbers, and the only way that will happen is if the virus mutates into less and less deadly, or it manages to kill itself off. I think either or both of those two things are more likely that a vaccine ever being realistic. Even if done and 100% effective, would still be a couple of years away, and then a couple of years again for little ol' Oz to get their fill (considering our strong effort to stop it locally). Only option may to pay mega dollars to jump the queue, and there will be a queue.

Bubbles won't work outside NZ and some Pacific Islands. We can't expect even SE Asian countries to hold and abide long term to preclude anyone outside agreed bubble countries, we are just too connected globally.

Hoping for July 2022 Europe, giving that a 50/50 I reckon.

 

[Pushka]

Maybe it will soon be a case of other countries not accepting Australia?

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Maybe it will soon be a case of other countries not accepting Australia?

At the moments Australia’s positives per capita are still favourable compared with Europe I guess

Not so certain how we compare say in the last 4 weeks.

 

[Brettmcg]

Not sure if this has already been posted...?

COVID-19 pandemic and border closures: Why Australians are banned from international travel

Most countries are allowing their citizens to depart at will. So why can't we?

www.traveller.com.au

The Australian government does not want its citizens contracting COVID-19 while they're overseas. But does that justify the restriction on the freedom of Australian citizens to travel?

Not according to Dr Kate Ogg, senior lecturer at the ANU College of Law, Australian National University

"It is arguable that the Australian government's restrictions on travelling overseas are in violation of Australia's human rights obligations. Australia has ratified the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR), article 12(3) of which provides that 'everyone shall be free to leave any country, including his [or her] own'. Pursuant to this right, a person can leave their own country for any reason whatsoever. The right to leave one's own country is not an absolute right. The government can place restrictions on Australian citizens' and permanent residents' right to leave for a number of reasons including the protection of public health."

That would seem to give the Australian government an out. However, as Dr Ogg continues, "The measures put in place must be the least intrusive possible to protect public health. The Australian government's role is certainly to advise Australian citizens about the risks of international travel and urge Australians to avoid all inessential international travel. The Australian government's ban on international travel, which is only subject to a few very specific exceptions, may be a violation of the right to leave because it is not the least intrusive possible method to protect public health. It could both prevent the spread of COVID-19 by, for example, testing all travellers before departure and quarantining all returning travellers (a policy already in place)."

The Department of Home Affairs says in a release titled 'Leaving Australia', "Australia has strict border measures in place to protect the health of the Australian community." That includes the protection of Australians travelling overseas. But that's hardly a consistent approach. Nor does it want them riding scooters without a helmet or taking prohibited substances, yet it does not prevent them from leaving Australia to avoid the possibility they might infringe foreign drug laws or injure themselves.

Dr Ogg prefers the example of New Zealand, which has set the benchmark for successfully dealing with the pandemic, yet does not prevent its citizens from travelling overseas although it advises them against it. "The New Zealand government is correct in urging New Zealanders to avoid international travel and making them aware of the health risks to themselves and others," says Dr Ogg. "However, banning international travel, when there are methods that would allow for overseas travel and address the spread of COVID-19, is most likely a violation of the right to leave in the ICCPR."

 

[dajop]

Maybe it will soon be a case of other countries not accepting Australia?

Or maybe not accepting Victorians.

Almost certainly not relevant to anyone else on AFF, but Singapore have now modified their policies. For the last month or so Singapore citizens, permanent residents and employment pass holders returning from Australia from could to serve their two weeks isolation (Stay At Home Notice) in their own homes. But for anyone arriving from 23:59 Sunday night who has been in Victoria in the last 14 days (they also added Japan and Hong Kong as well) now have to serve it at dedicated facilities (hotels). Those from other states can still do it at home.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

At least you can go to Tweed Heads, Eden, Tibooburra, Wentworth and everywhere in between. At the moment, in theory Melburnians can't go past their local shopping centre unless they're going to work.

Tibooburra.

Now there is a blast from my past.

Longest drive in time, and km, that I have ever done in a single day was in my early twenties when I drove back from Tibooburra to Endeavour Hills in Melbourne.

Twelve hundred odd km.

 

[jakeseven7]

At the moments Australia’s positives per capita are still favourable compared with Europe I guess

Not so certain how we compare say in the last 4 weeks.

Speaking to all my European colleagues they are reporting that everyone is absolutely terrified what is going to happen in their autumn / winter when temperatures start cooling.

At least here in AU, every day that passes we are getting closer to our blistering summers that are very virus unfriendly...

 

[Virgin Bart]

Speaking to all my European colleagues they are reporting that everyone is absolutely terrified what is going to happen in their autumn / winter when temperatures start cooling.

At least here in AU, every day that passes we are getting closer to our blistering summers that are very virus unfriendly...

... And idiots clambering to get to the beach.

Sorry, glass half empty here.

 

[Rembrandt]

Speaking to all my European colleagues they are reporting that everyone is absolutely terrified what is going to happen in their autumn / winter when temperatures start cooling.

At least here in AU, every day that passes we are getting closer to our blistering summers that are very virus unfriendly...

Considering the Covid-19 is spreading like wildfire in southern US and is having a resurgence in Europe, Japan and many other places in the northern hemisphere (summer over there now). One would think that this virus doesn't die off in the warmer months like the common flu viruses would. Covid-19 is a stronger virus in general.

What the world needs to be concerned is the festive season in December. If we don't get this under control by then, it's going to accelerate around xmas.

 

[jakeseven7]

Considering the Covid-19 is spreading like wildfire in southern US and is having a resurgence in Europe, Japan and many other places in the northern hemisphere (summer over there now). One would think that this virus doesn't die off in the warmer months like the common flue viruses would. Covid-19 is a stronger virus in general.

What the world needs to be concerend is the festive season in December. If we don't get this under control by then, it's going to accelerate around xmas.

I’m not sure who said the virus might die off in summer We wish!

But Australia is no where near as densely populated as all the other countries mentioned. I certainly think it will give us a head start.

Perhaps all the imports (working tourists etc) in Bondi and a few beaches in Sydney might be an issue again, I agree... But maybe a lot of them have returned home now.

 

[drron]

Cold weather itself does not cause viral infections.This was shown in England during WW2 when "volunteers"were sent out on to the moors for 2-4 weeks by themselves.none developed a common cold.But when they returned to the barracks virtually all did.It is the interaction with infected individuals which raises your chance of infection.We see virtually all viral illnesses here during the summer months particularly flu but at a lesser incidence as social distancing is easier in good weather.

In the USA this summer there is one cause of the increased cases you won't see in the press too often.That is this summer driving vacations have skyrocketed allowing infected individuals to interact with communities where there is little immunity.One of our friends in Colorado says there are thousands of Texans there whilst another in Miami says way more NYC and New England licence plates seen this year.

The other point overlooked if the case load keeps increasing in the US as it has it is quite possible they may reach herd immunity and therefore in a year or two's time might be one of the safest places to visit from the point of view of Covid.

 

[p--and--t]

therefore in a year or two's time might be one of the safest places to visit from the point of view of Covid.

so then we will only have to worried about random shooters & M15s [oh and if there isn't a change at the top, the military on the streets]

 

[drron]

so then we will only have to worried about random shooters & M15s [oh and if there isn't a change at the top, the military on the streets]

I agree with the violence but I am not sure a change at the top is going to lessen that.Defunding the police is already having adverse effects in those cities such as NYC.

In Wake Of Continued Gun Violence, Prominent Members Of Black Community Call On NYPD To Bring Back Anti-Crime Unit

It was a dramatic moment -- Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams holding up a pair of baby shoes after a 1-year-old became the latest victim of gun violence.

newyork.cbslocal.com

 

[p--and--t]

I agree with the violence but I am not sure a change at the top is going to lessen that.Defunding the police is already having adverse effects in those cities such as NYC.

In Wake Of Continued Gun Violence, Prominent Members Of Black Community Call On NYPD To Bring Back Anti-Crime Unit

It was a dramatic moment -- Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams holding up a pair of baby shoes after a 1-year-old became the latest victim of gun violence.

newyork.cbslocal.com

Off topic, but I don't recall under any other POTUS where the military have been deployed against US citizens legally sitting in a park so he could take a photo.