Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[lovetravellingoz]

The other point overlooked if the case load keeps increasing in the US as it has it is quite possible they may reach herd immunity

Yes they may, as long as immunity from having had CV19 is long lasting, and that it makes one immune. If not, then herd immunity will never be reached.

But assuming it is, then we are talking about many dead in the USA to reach it.

Figures , stats and predictions (including what % of infected to reach heard immunity would actually be) are all very rubbery and so pick a number between 1 and 4 million dead.



On the immunity from catching CV19. The pandemic has been going for a longtime now and reports of people catching CV19 seems to have been rare. So that would seem to imply that immunity is either achieved for many, or at least that it makes them less symptomatic the second time around. So that is hopeful.

 

[Danger]

Optimistic comments from Dr Robert Redfield, director of the CDC, in an interview on a podcast from The Economist.

"I’m still going to be an optimist that we’re going to get there. I think there’s a real possibility that we’ll have a safe and efficacious coronavirus vaccine before the end of the year. When a vaccine is ready to go into phase three trials – the efficacy studies – which are starting as we speak, at that moment in time, the United States is buying 100 million doses of that vaccine to be produced now so that in the event that in October or November that our FDA concludes that the vaccine is safe and it works, we don’t have to wait now for the company to setup manufacturing; we’ll have a hundred million doses. I’m sure there’ll be at least five and maybe seven vaccines where we’ve decided to basically buy them whether they work or not to make sure there’s no delay in being able to provide them. I’ve never seen vaccine development move quicker. There’s a highly effective partnership between the private sector and government to make this happen and I would assume that we’re going to have somewhere hopefully between one and three vaccines approved for human use prior to the end of January. That said, science has its own timeline, we can’t predict but I’m much more optimistic than I was 12 weeks ago.”​

Economist Radio - The Economist Asks: Robert Redfield

 

[Pushka]

Optimistic comments from Dr Robert Redfield, director of the CDC, in an interview on a podcast from The Economist.

"I’m still going to be an optimist that we’re going to get there. I think there’s a real possibility that we’ll have a safe and efficacious coronavirus vaccine before the end of the year. When a vaccine is ready to go into phase three trials – the efficacy studies – which are starting as we speak, at that moment in time, the United States is buying 100 million doses of that vaccine to be produced now so that in the event that in October or November that our FDA concludes that the vaccine is safe and it works, we don’t have to wait now for the company to setup manufacturing; we’ll have a hundred million doses. I’m sure there’ll be at least five and maybe seven vaccines where we’ve decided to basically buy them whether they work or not to make sure there’s no delay in being able to provide them. I’ve never seen vaccine development move quicker. There’s a highly effective partnership between the private sector and government to make this happen and I would assume that we’re going to have somewhere hopefully between one and three vaccines approved for human use prior to the end of January. That said, science has its own timeline, we can’t predict but I’m much more optimistic than I was 12 weeks ago.”​

Economist Radio - The Economist Asks: Robert Redfield

I heard similar today from a University Infectious Disease expert because there are currently around 100 potentials being trialled with a few in advance stages. Normally the talk is negative but with caution, he was rather optimistic about the next several months.

 

[CityRail]

Optimistic comments from Dr Robert Redfield, director of the CDC, in an interview on a podcast from The Economist.

"I’m still going to be an optimist that we’re going to get there. I think there’s a real possibility that we’ll have a safe and efficacious coronavirus vaccine before the end of the year. When a vaccine is ready to go into phase three trials – the efficacy studies – which are starting as we speak, at that moment in time, the United States is buying 100 million doses of that vaccine to be produced now so that in the event that in October or November that our FDA concludes that the vaccine is safe and it works, we don’t have to wait now for the company to setup manufacturing; we’ll have a hundred million doses. I’m sure there’ll be at least five and maybe seven vaccines where we’ve decided to basically buy them whether they work or not to make sure there’s no delay in being able to provide them. I’ve never seen vaccine development move quicker. There’s a highly effective partnership between the private sector and government to make this happen and I would assume that we’re going to have somewhere hopefully between one and three vaccines approved for human use prior to the end of January. That said, science has its own timeline, we can’t predict but I’m much more optimistic than I was 12 weeks ago.”​

Economist Radio - The Economist Asks: Robert Redfield

Despite being optimistic, I think my understanding is that Australia has placed a bet on our local vaccine from UQ and COVAX-19 rather than signing deals with AZD1222 or mRNA-1273 vaccines to be available in Australia.

Here's an article where we should all get concerned about, and if we missed out on the foreign vaccines because we are relying on our own, at the end it will jeopardise our effort to contain COVID-19 and safely reopen our borders.

Securing COVID-19 vaccine supply just as hard as the science

Local industry experts warn that Australia will need to cast its net as widely as possible to nab an adequate supply of a coronavirus vaccine

www.smh.com.au

I think in light of the recent outbreak in Melbourne, we should secure at least 10 millions of AZD1222 and mRNA-1273 vaccines even we don't know whether they are effective, so if they proven are, we can be one of the first nations to open the borders to international travellers.

 

[CityRail]

Victorians can still transit through NSW. and if arriving by air in Queensland to get an onwards flight. And also passing through SA.

That is a bit of a risk to other states, they should not be allowed to Transit at all, I am concerned that Community Transmission will creep through transiting passengers.

 

[Duffa]

Haven't been on for quite a while (other than for Dan's deals) as a natural result of my favourite pastime being curtailed by Covid, so I apologise if this has already been asked.
I have booked redemption flights for late November on Cathay MEL-LHR and FCO-MEL on the way back, in mid December. Initially, I rated myself a 7 on a scale of 1 - 10 likelihood of it coming off without a hitch (No delays, no downgrade and no quarantine either end, etc.) but now I am not so sure. Maybe a 5?
I'd love other members to share their opinions with a simple, number reply.

I also recall that some time ago, a clever AFF'er was able to construct a survey thread on this website. We all typed in an numerical answer for some question or other and the website calculated the mean. That would be good fun if someone had the tech skill.
Conversely, if I get a string of zeros in reply, then I might just have a rethink.

 

[I love to travel]

Haven't been on for quite a while (other than for Dan's deals) as a natural result of my favourite pastime being curtailed by Covid, so I apologise if this has already been asked.
I have booked redemption flights for late November on Cathay MEL-LHR and FCO-MEL on the way back, in mid December. Initially, I rated myself a 7 on a scale of 1 - 10 likelihood of it coming off without a hitch (No delays, no downgrade and no quarantine either end, etc.) but now I am not so sure. Maybe a 5?
I'd love other members to share their opinions with a simple, number reply.

I also recall that some time ago, a clever AFF'er was able to construct a survey thread on this website. We all typed in an numerical answer for some question or other and the website calculated the mean. That would be good fun if someone had the tech skill.
Conversely, if I get a string of zeros in reply, then I might just have a rethink HAHAHHA

0. No way Australian government is relaxing outbound travel restrictions any time soon.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

0. No way Australian government is relaxing outbound travel restrictions any time soon.

They might have to. While I support state border closures, preventing citizens from leaving their own country may not be lawful. Anyone should be allowed to leave.

 

[Duffa]

They might have to. While I support state border closures, preventing citizens from leaving their own country may not be lawful. Anyone should be allowed to leave.

Go, MEL_T.... What about a score for my plans?

 

[DC3]

Looking ahead at flights in 2021, for some reason the QF website is still showing A380 flights SYD/MEL to/from the USA (although with no First Class availability). I haven’t looked at other routes (e.g., SYD-SIN-LHR). I had thought that QF had made it quite clear that the A380 will not be part of their plans for at least the next 3 years.

I have no idea why these flights aren’t showing as B787. It can’t be that difficult to update. Even if schedules change or there are flight cancellations.

Edited

 

[DC3]

They might have to. While I support state border closures, preventing citizens from leaving their own country may not be lawful. Anyone should be allowed to leave.

You have a High Court challenge coming up?

 

[oznflfan]

Haven't been on for quite a while (other than for Dan's deals) as a natural result of my favourite pastime being curtailed by Covid, so I apologise if this has already been asked.
I have booked redemption flights for late November on Cathay MEL-LHR and FCO-MEL on the way back, in mid December. Initially, I rated myself a 7 on a scale of 1 - 10 likelihood of it coming off without a hitch (No delays, no downgrade and no quarantine either end, etc.) but now I am not so sure. Maybe a 5?
I'd love other members to share their opinions with a simple, number reply.

I also recall that some time ago, a clever AFF'er was able to construct a survey thread on this website. We all typed in an numerical answer for some question or other and the website calculated the mean. That would be good fun if someone had the tech skill.
Conversely, if I get a string of zeros in reply, then I might just have a rethink.

AGREE, 1 BEING OPTIMISTIC.

 

[Hvr]

preventing citizens from leaving their own country may not be lawful. Anyone should be allowed to leave.

Actually lots of people aren't allowed to leave the country. People awaiting criminal trial, on parole, bankrupt people, paedophiles, people who are planning on committing a crime overseas including terrorism.

I'm sure there are lots of other groups of people who aren't allowed to leave.

Of the cohorts listed above, which of them do you think should be allowed to leave the country?

 

[CityRail]

0. No way Australian government is relaxing outbound travel restrictions any time soon.

I would recommend against any international travel bookings until we have a vaccine approved, as I don't think governments will open their borders until such is approved at least.

I understand there are lot of people here will argue it needs to be available, however that is a country power issue, being a powerful country like Australia and our relationship with the US and the UK, we could be able to get some share of their vaccine if it is approved, which it will give us some insights of when and how the borders will reopen by then.

My understand is that the CSL vaccine is aiming to achieve emergency approval by the end of the year and formal approval by sometime next year, if everything goes well. So I suppose what we should do is watch this space, once we are close to a vaccine approval, then the government will give us clearer indication of how the vaccination program as well as dates the borders are being reopen.

Australian COVID researchers warn vaccines will have to be made overseas

If certain vaccine projects are successful, Australian researchers say they may have to look offshore to produce them.

www.smh.com.au

This article is rather interesting, because even we might have the smartest scientists in the country, we might not be able to convert their findings to mass production, which is a great concern. Whilst the Federal Government is dealing with outbreaks in Melbourne, they should have a clear look at this and ensure we are the first to get a COVID-19 vaccine, so that we can return our lives to normal at least.

 

[Pushka]

As if there is no betwen the average law abiding Joe citizen and those who are being accused of, or found guilty of, being a hard core criminal?

 

[p--and--t]

Haven't been on for quite a while (other than for Dan's deals) as a natural result of my favourite pastime being curtailed by Covid, so I apologise if this has already been asked.
I have booked redemption flights for late November on Cathay MEL-LHR and FCO-MEL on the way back, in mid December. Initially, I rated myself a 7 on a scale of 1 - 10 likelihood of it coming off without a hitch (No delays, no downgrade and no quarantine either end, etc.) but now I am not so sure. Maybe a 5?
I'd love other members to share their opinions with a simple, number reply.

I also recall that some time ago, a clever AFF'er was able to construct a survey thread on this website. We all typed in an numerical answer for some question or other and the website calculated the mean. That would be good fun if someone had the tech skill.
Conversely, if I get a string of zeros in reply, then I might just have a rethink.

Assuming from your post the proposed journey is for pleasure and not business? This is all best guesses obviously as the Australian Standard for crystal balls has not yet been released.

Business 2-3
Private 0-0.5

 

[dajop]

preventing citizens from leaving their own country may not be lawful. Anyone should be allowed to leave.

Forget citizens from leaving their own country, what about preventing citizens of other countries from leaving? The government has been doing this as well for citizens of other country who are residents of Australia.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Forget citizens from leaving their own country, what about preventing citizens of other countries from leaving? The government has been doing this as well for citizens of other country who are residents of Australia.

Exactly! Although I suppose those with PR could renounce their PR and they'd have to leave as they'd have no visa status.

 

[p--and--t]

Exactly! Although I suppose those with PR could renounce their PR and they'd have to leave as they'd have no visa status.

That is an interesting proposition, I wonder if that is the sticking point or even possible/practicable?

Maybe that's the problem, the "citizens of other countries" want their cake and eat it. travel back to their home country when Aussie passport holders can't but also claim /not lose Australian residency and all the benefits that come with it.

 

[dajop]

Maybe that's the problem, the "citizens of other countries" want their cake and eat it. travel back to their home country when Aussie passport holders can't but also claim /not lose Australian residency and all the benefits that come with it.

It's a temporary state of affairs. I've been fortunate that I've had the opposite case, as a Singapore Permanent Resident of Australian nationality, have been allowed (with financial penalties associated with quarantine and testing upon return to Singapore) to travel to Australia, and I did so to be close to my elderly mother during the pandemic, in case additional care was required. I read about a Singaporean resident of Australia, who had organised to work remotely for 6 months, so she could return home to support her elderly mother, and she was not permitted to do so, and had application denied. I don't think it's about having their cake and eating it, more about family ties and support. Longer term though, as this thing doesn't look like going away anytime soon, whilst I won't renounce my PR status, I may well choose to move back to Australia permanently in the coming 6 months or so and not renew my PR status when it comes up in 2022.