Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[kpc]

Interesting article which I mostly agree with: Even with a vaccine, the era of risk-free travel is gone forever

Another article arguing why we we should be able to leave Australia: Others can, so why can't Australians travel overseas?

 

[p--and--t]

Eventually I think the best solution to remove the political pressure and academic conjecture over rights etc would be for the gov to come up with an all encompassing price that covered minimum 14 days transport, accommodation, logistics, security, management, cleaning, laundry, food etc for each location.

Then mandate health insurance, a minimum two lots of testing (on entry and x days before release), mandate an extension of an additional 14 days if testing positive the second time and then open up travel to those who can afford it.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Eventually I think the best solution to remove the political pressure and academic conjecture over rights etc would be for the gov to come up with an all encompassing price that covered minimum 14 days transport, accommodation, logistics, security, management, cleaning, laundry, food etc for each location.

Then mandate health insurance, a minimum two lots of testing (on entry and x days before release), mandate an extension of an additional 14 days if testing positive the second time and then open up travel to those who can afford it.

Yes I have long thought that this will be the first step out private non-essential travel for both business and private travel.
It is also required to allow say international students to return, as well as migrants and opportunities such as particular people relocating to Australia for periods to work (ie Move makers, athletes and other sporting people and even teams. ie Hosting wold Cup Cricket and Soccer Matches etc)

The cost and time involved will rule out international trips for many. Those with only 4 weeks of annual leave would lose half just for the quarantine make it unlikely for many.
ie Budget trips to Bali will not exist.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Eventually I think the best solution to remove the political pressure and academic conjecture over rights etc would be for the gov to come up with an all encompassing price that covered minimum 14 days transport, accommodation, logistics, security, management, cleaning, laundry, food etc for each location.

Then mandate health insurance, a minimum two lots of testing (on entry and x days before release), mandate an extension of an additional 14 days if testing positive the second time and then open up travel to those who can afford it.

Health insurance for overseas visitors? Agree. For citizens it shouldn't be a requirement.

 

[Pushka]

Health insurance for overseas visitors? Agree. For citizens it shouldn't be a requirement.

Travel to a country with reciprocal medicare agreements?
The first opening has to be for those people who can show they have no intention of returning in the short term and evidence to support (eg work contract and lease agreements etc etc, working visas and so on).

 

[drron]

Interesting article which I mostly agree with: Even with a vaccine, the era of risk-free travel is gone forever

Another article arguing why we we should be able to leave Australia: Others can, so why can't Australians travel overseas?

But has travel ever been risk free?
Certainly when I have travelled to the USA in spring, March/April ,I am aware that we are very much at risk from influenza as our vaccinations were 10,11 months previously and almost certainly no longer effective.As well there probably has been a new strain and so we are certainly at risk.
And we travelled around Asia at the height of the SARs pandemic in 2003.

The number of Australians who die overseas each year is well over 1000.In 2016.17 the number was 1653.

New figures show 49 Australians murdered overseas in 2016/17

Australians are avid travellers — nearly 9 million take overseas trips each year — but the latest figures from the Department of Foreign Affairs show an increasing number never make it home.

www.abc.net.au

A third of those who died OS was in just 4 countries in SE Asia-Thailand,Phillipines,Indonesia and Vietnam.

The overseas spot where Aussies keep dying

EVERYONE knows that certain travel destinations can be riskier than others, but there is one particular overseas spot where Australians are dying at an alarming rate.

www.news.com.au

For a more extensive breakdown.

Consular State of Play 2016–17

www.dfat.gov.au

So the difference is that people were basically unaware of the risks they take travelling.Sadly there will still be many unaware of the risks.
Possibly in 4-5 years travel I am sure will be back to pre covid levels as with the effort and number under consideration a vaccine is more likely than not and effective treatment at least by monoclonal abs is quite likely.
Add to that the world has had 2 previous novel corona virus pandemics both of which naturally died out.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Travel to a country with reciprocal medicare agreements?
The first opening has to be for those people who can show they have no intention of returning in the short term and evidence to support (eg work contract and lease agreements etc etc, working visas and so on).

If you're an Aussie travelling overseas, it should be up to the receiving country to determine what level of health cover you need (for example Thailand required $100,000 cover at one stage for covid). If you are an Aussie travelling overseas and intend on returning, as long as you cover the quarantine on return, there shouldn't be any other requirements of private health insurance.

If a front line nurse in ICU, or ambulance worker wants to take a few weeks off work and spend a couple weeks in Bali and return home to quarantine, they should be allowed to. I don't see there should be any restrictions placed on who wants to go. The only cap I could see would be a 'numbers' cap... to make sure there were sufficient rooms available on return.

There could be a whole new business opportunity here... 2 weeks in Bali followed by two weeks at a resort in QLD for your quarantine. Similar to what the Maldives are offering.

 

[Gremlin]

Eventually I think the best solution to remove the political pressure and academic conjecture over rights etc would be for the gov to come up with an all encompassing price that covered minimum 14 days transport, accommodation, logistics, security, management, cleaning, laundry, food etc for each location.

Then mandate health insurance, a minimum two lots of testing (on entry and x days before release), mandate an extension of an additional 14 days if testing positive the second time and then open up travel to those who can afford it.

Theoretically that sounds reasonable, but in practice that's still an awfully long way away.

First, there has to be the capacity to support it. Australia is currently REDUCING its capacity to support quarantine of inbound arrivals, not increasing it. NSW announced a further reduction in what they are willing to accept in the past couple of days, down to 350 arrivals a day from 450 arrivals a day.

Second, it has to be absolutely as close to risk free to the wider community as possible before it's launched. The outbreak in Vic has shown that quarantine hotels are the new border friction points. No government, state or federal, is now going to launch a program that allows this until quality controls around quarantine are completely understood and managed appropriately. To that end, a little birdie told me that some (not all) of the states that have asked to have their quarantine capacity reduced have done so because, in light of what's happened in Vic, they've had a quiet look under the bonnet at their own quarantine operations and have seen some issues that, euphemistically, "need to be addressed". There but for the grace of God goes...

Third, there needs to be an appropriate level of prioritisation of consular support overseas. The demand for consular support is many, many multiples that of this time last year, even with virtually no outbound Australian travel. It's going to continue to be more than can be provided for a long time yet. This isn't a resource that can be easily scaled. In fact, last week the Fed Govt announced it was reducing the capability to support this through staffing cuts to DFAT.

 

[Gremlin]

There could be a whole new business opportunity here... 2 weeks in Bali followed by two weeks at a resort in QLD for your quarantine. Similar to what the Maldives are offering.

Given the issues that have emerged from quarantine hotels in Melbourne, I don't think anything like the Maldives offering will even be remotely contemplated here in Australia.

 

[tgh]

The flaw in this concept is that almost everyone reading these pages would/will want overseas health/accident care at least as good as au private.

 

[Pushka]

If you are an Aussie travelling overseas and intend on returning, as long as you cover the quarantine on return, there shouldn't be any other requirements of private health insurance.

That just cant be supported yet. Because of

First, there has to be the capacity to support it. Australia is currently REDUCING its capacity to support quarantine of inbound arrivals, not increasing it. NSW announced a further reduction in what they are willing to accept in the past couple of days, down to 350 arrivals a day from 450 arrivals a day.

 

[jakeseven7]

First, there has to be the capacity to support it. Australia is currently REDUCING its capacity to support quarantine of inbound arrivals, not increasing it. NSW announced a further reduction in what they are willing to accept in the past couple of days, down to 350 arrivals a day from 450 arrivals a day.

I also suspect we are only a matter of time away from NSW requesting a pause in arrivals as the virus spreads in Sydney (a la MEL having a break from arrivals)... I honestly think it is just a matter of time now.

 

[jb747]

As I see it, the overall market will remain a tiny fraction of the size it once was. $5000 worth of quarantine at the end of a trip simply means that it won’t happen. So, airlines, airports, and all of the rest of the services that this travel relies upon, will lose their economy of scale. They will either go out of business (most airlines that aren’t government entities), or massively scale back their operations. Prices will rise. A lot. International travel will end up at about the scale, and price, that it was in the 707 era. Within Oz, border closures, and the “screw you, I’m right” attitude that is so evident, will also curtail any domestic recovery.

 

[dajop]

If you're an Aussie travelling overseas, it should be up to the receiving country to determine what level of health cover you need (for example Thailand required $100,000 cover at one stage for covid). If you are an Aussie travelling overseas and intend on returning, as long as you cover the quarantine on return, there shouldn't be any other requirements of private health insurance.

Ok, if you’re leaving you tick the box and that indicates I have no travel health insurance and hereby waive the right to consular assistance in dealing with any COVID related medical emergency overseas.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Ok, if you’re leaving you tick the box and that indicates I have no travel health insurance and hereby waive the right to consular assistance in dealing with any COVID related medical emergency overseas.

Not only a covid medical emergency, but any covid related matter. For example if you’re in Italy and they go into another lockdown, consular services are not there to provide repatriation flights for you. You have to stick it out.

Pre covid travel insurance wasn’t mandatory as a requirement to leave Australia. During covid is no different. If the country you wish to travel to wants to impose travel insurance restrictions, that’s up to them, and as an arriving passenger you would need to comply.

Some destinations like Bali may offer free medical care if they want to attract tourists. Who knows.

Post automatically merged: Jul 21, 2020

That just cant be supported yet. Because of

Talking about travel insurance. Not capacity controls. Implement some ballot system if there are capacity controls.

 

[Gremlin]

Not only a covid medical emergency, but any covid related matter. For example if you’re in Italy and they go into another lockdown, consular services are not there to provide repatriation flights for you. You have to stick it out.

Pre covid travel insurance wasn’t mandatory as a requirement to leave Australia. During covid is no different.

I'm not sure you're going to get your wish on this. There are plenty of people who have, through no fault of their own, found themselves in breach of travel visas as flights have disappeared, or quarantine restrictions have been imposed. Whether you decide you're prepared to "stick it out" or not is irrelevant. Consular services will be involved regardless of whether you'd choose them to be or not. Your visiting country will engage with the Australian Embassy to make you Australia's problem, not their problem.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I'm not sure you're going to get your wish on this. There are plenty of people who have, through no fault of their own, found themselves in breach of travel visas as flights have disappeared, or quarantine restrictions have been imposed. Whether you decide you're prepared to "stick it out" or not is irrelevant. Consular services will be involved regardless of whether you'd choose them to be or not. Your visiting country will engage with the Australian Embassy to make you Australia's problem, not their problem.

Many countries have extended the validity of visas for this very reason. And those Aussies stranded in parts of south america and unable to get a flight are presumably still there. So even though ‘australia’s problem’, there may not be a solution, or at least a solution that requires a flight home at aussie taxpayer expense.

There will always be extreme examples... but travel to major tourist destinations shouldn’t present insurmountable problems. As I’ve mentioned before, daily flights on Qatar from europe to Australia, none cancelled. So not coming home is a choice at this stage. No reason for consular services to become involved (if you overstay it is a matter between the traveller and local authorities).

 

[p--and--t]

First, there has to be the capacity to support it. Australia is currently REDUCING its capacity to support quarantine of inbound arrivals, not increasing it. NSW announced a further reduction in what they are willing to accept in the past couple of days, down to 350 arrivals a day from 450 arrivals a day.

My observation of private enterprise is that if there is a buck in it, then capacity will quickly rise to demand. The gov could create a whole new industry managed the same way they manage outsourced prisons etc. Particularly if they are thinking 3+ years of need, even specially repurposed facilities could be up and running with renos within 3-6 months.

Definitely not advocating it (actually quite opposed), just an observation.

 

[Gremlin]

There will always be extreme examples... but travel to major tourist destinations shouldn’t present insurmountable problems. As I’ve mentioned before, daily flights on Qatar from europe to Australia, none cancelled. So not coming home is a choice at this stage. No reason for consular services to become involved (if you overstay it is a matter between the traveller and local authorities).

Major travel destinations such as Bali, for example?!?

Check out the facebook page of the Australian Embassy in Indonesia.

https://www.facebook.com/australianembassyjakarta/

First post shows the flights to Australia this week from Bali. Oh wait. There are none.

What about coughet or Bangkok? Then read the Australian Ambassador's post from yesterday.

https://www.facebook.com/australiainthailand/

Or maybe you'd like to laze on a beach in Langkawi or Kota Kinabalu? Well check out the information being provided to those trying to get home from Malaysia.

Australia in Malaysia

Australia in Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. 84,137 likes · 423 talking about this · 2,293 were here. Australia in Malaysia

www.facebook.com

Now go back and read some of the comments of the travellers that are stuck that are being posted in response. These are not necessarily "extreme examples". As an example, some of the people who have been stuck in Malaysia have been caught because of domestic restrictions that have been implemented at short notice (think the equivalent of state border closures with Victoria), meaning they can't get to KL, yet only flights from KL are departing to Australia.

 

[Gremlin]

My observation of private enterprise is that if there is a buck in it, then capacity will quickly rise to demand. The gov could create a whole new industry managed the same way they manage outsourced prisons etc. Particularly if they are thinking 3+ years of need, even specially repurposed facilities could be up and running with renos within 3-6 months.

Definitely not advocating it (actually quite opposed), just an observation.

They could. And I think if it's going to be a long term prospect, they probably will.

One thing that's already become apparent is that the bones of what might make an appropriate quarantine facility might look similar to the bones of a tourist/business hotel, but it's the little details that need to be well thought through. As does how it becomes re-purposed back once that need is no longer there.