Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

As the revelations in the last month about Sydney's hotel program illustrate - both Melbourne & Sydney have serious deficiencies.

That the NSW bureaucracy was only 'thinking about setting up a quality control committee' last week does not engender much confidence about its internal control structure to date. It appears (from the available information) that the respective bureaucracies are happy to take any compliments but resort to 'it is not my responsibility' when something goes wrong.

You mentioned 'Ruby Princess' - well I suppose Gladys did set the precedent for NSW in pointing the finger elsewhere back on March 18th.

So you think the VIC system was better even though it failed badly, interesting...
You seem to be incorrectly paraphrasing.

I said the NSW Hotel quarantine system is not one I would hold out to be the gold standard.
Nowhere did I say Vic was the scheme to follow.

I was in Sydney quarantine end of June, there were no problems, everything went smoothly and professional guards .
Good to hear. That seems to have been the case with around 92% of all hotel stays in Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, Melbourne & Sydney.

Initially Sydney had the most complaints per room night - predominantly about the state (or lack) of the food coming from the catering companies that are used to supply Sydney public hospitals. Each Local health area's contractor supplied the hotels in their area.

When the Travelodge chain began being used in Sydney (owned by a major donor to the Liberal Party just by coincidence) then the focus of the majority of complaints changed. Complaints about those hotels were greater in number in the much shorter time period they've been part of the NSW scheme than for all other Sydney hotels combined from the start.
I wonder if a heavy police/military presence, a credible reporting chain, and the use of reputable security companies might have led to more discipline amongst guards?
No, actually the figures demonstrate the opposite.

The same security company initially blamed for the Melbourne outbreak & subsequently found to have sub-contracted etc etc & has the most named security guard issues in Sydney - was given the contracts for Sydney's most used quarantine hotels BTW. NSW Govt is using the same non-reputable security company and did not do any checking on them in early June to see if they were up to the same issues as in Melbourne.

There have been more complaints made by hotel staff, Dept of Health staff & hotel guests in Sydney than in Melbourne leading to nearly double the number of security guards being fired. Oddly enough the majority belonging to the aforementioned security company (which is based in Sydney btw).

No evidence of more discipline actually less discipline seemingly - just not so widely reported, even to Gladys as she said recently that she'd not heard of any of the security guards in Sydney getting fired.

As I said - Good luck has favoured NSW.

Remember 90% of Melb cases genetically trace back to the one room covered with human waste. Not actually to the non-reputable security company guards but to the hotel night manager & the Dept of Health personnel who instructed a security guard to escort the family around the hotel for some hours while the room was cleaned.

It’s like saying a normal prison is ineffective because guards are investiagted for wrong doing in larger numbers than a prison guarded by bikies, which was much better because there were few complaints, until everyone escaped... It’s Sir Humphrey logic.

Nothing of the sort.

Sounds like you are talking about Sydney International Airport with the bikies involved in both Q security & Q baggage handling. Despite spome grandstanding after the 28th group caught since 2000 (in 2019) still nothing has seemingly actually been done...

Hundreds of airport workers on drug crim target list | The ...
www.couriermail.com.au › police-courts › news-story

Jul 12, 2020 - Baggage handlers, airport security guards, pilots, port workers, cargo ... have been identified on criminal intelligence target lists focusing on drug smuggling. ... significant amounts of cocaine through Sydney airport using his security access ... The Comanchero bikie gang has at least 17 associates or family ..

One, a Qantas baggage handler, likely facilitated significant amounts of cocaine through Sydney airport using his security access in what is known as the “rip on, rip off” method.

The loophole is contained in national crime intelligence reports.

Of the 250,000 people issued with ID cards, nearly 3000 security card holders have criminal charges from the past four years. A total of 170 are represented in 216 crime intelligence reports from 2019 alone.

vs the big announcement made in late 2019 - they're still on the job....

Bikies and drug-smugglers will be banned from working at Australia's airports and docks, under new federal laws introduced into Parliament today.

The Home Affairs Minister has revealed almost 300 people with airport passes have links to organised crime.

www.7NEWS.com.au

Peter Dutton: Bill a bid to keep bikies and crims from airport ...
www.heraldsun.com.au › news › law-order › news-story

Oct 23, 2019 - Bikies and drug-smugglers will be banned from working at Australia's ... as part of an alleged drug-trafficking ring operating at Sydney airport.

NSW had two breeches from tens of thousands of passengers, the Wynyard escapee women actually assaulted a guard to escape and go smoke, and was quickly caught. VIC had guards sleeping with guests, going shopping, letting them visit other rooms, smoking together etc etc. if the virus is so highly transmissible and dangerous I think you need a lot more than luck.
NSW has had more than 20 breeches from hotels that I know of btw.

You may not call it luck that none of those 20 were CV+ - was it good planning by the NSW Govt to only allow CV- people to escape then?

In just a couple of days in early July there were two woman escapees from the one hotel.

One who talked her way out & the other who did not 'assault' a security guard but pushed his hand off her shoulder & ran.

One woman who 'absconded' from the Marriott was 63 years old, did not assault anyone and was only found hours later after her friend contacted the police about her not answering her phone - revealing she had lied about being an air hostess.

She was found trying to board a plane to Qld at Sydney domestic airport. Imagine how many people she could have infected along the way if she'd been CV+.

A 63-year-old Queensland woman has been issued with a $1000 fine and been returned to hotel quarantine after she allegedly attempted to abscond from Sydney's Marriott Hotel on Wednesday.

"About 7am yesterday, police received a report of a woman who had absconded from a hotel at Circular Quay while undertaking her mandatory 14-day quarantine period," NSW Police said in a statement released to the Herald.

The Australian citizen, who returned from an international trip on a flight to Sydney but lives in Queensland, is believed to have told hotel staff and security her job as a flight attendant meant she needed to leave the hotel and catch a plane, someone familiar with the alleged escape said.

Another woman who absconded from the same hotel was a 39yr old. Not charged with assault as she did not assault anyone.


Police have fined a woman for breaking her mandatory hotel quarantine after she ran away from her Pitt Street accommodation.

Why did ViC shut down everything if only one case valid, why not start again? Ruby Princess is a better target for parochial rivalry.

All it takes is one case.

That is how CV is believed to have started in Wuhan is it not?

Ruby Princess - no parochial rivalry, NSW bureaucracy found by Commissioner to have acted negligently. Nothing wrong with the procedures other than they were not followed. Worth downloading & reading the report.


edit: I must have had the superior police, because they were definitely talking about rules, how they would be enforced, behaviour of guests etc etc. or maybe I imagined the army and police coming to my door with the health staff to make sure CV19 tests and exit procedures etc were done properly.
The NSW Police Commissioner, when responding to questions last week about thinking of setting up a 'quality control committee' now, stated that the NSW Police had no direct role in enforcing quarantine procedures nor ensuring proper health measures are followed. He stated the Police were there to respond to any request for assistance by security guards, hotel staff or Health Dept officials - they do not have a pro-active role, they're not there to patrol the floors or any part of the premises.

As is detailed in the case with the 63yr old woman talking her way past the security guards & hotel staff. She was allowed out by the police stationed at the hotel.

Perhaps at your hotel that security company used their initiative & requested 'assistance' as a standard procedure.
 
So basically just a small-minded "If I don't agree with what they say then stuff 'em, because I know better and any positive for someone else is a negative for me". I think Pierre-Joseph Proudhon probably had something else in mind.
Perhaps you should (re)read 'Animal farm' by George Orwell.

Very relevant to the current situation.

"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
 
Perhaps you should (re)read 'Animal farm' by George Orwell.

Very relevant to the current situation.

"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."

Posts like this make it difficult. I don't know whether to mark it with a "Like", "Agree", "Sad" or "Haha". 🤣 I 'll settle with agree.
 
Time to update my prediction.

Back when this all started, I said domestic at the end of this year, and international at the end of 21. I think I was far too optimistic.

Domestic end 21. International end 23. But, there will be no airlines (at least in Oz). Oh, that's when I think it will start, not reach normality.
I just feel overwhelming sadness. All those jobs lost directly and indirectly. All those family visits not possible. All those holidays not possible. Life is impoverished.
 
Or daughter, SIL and 2 grandkids are currently stuck Panama City. The lockdown restrictions there make Melbourne look like a holiday camp.
Whilst they have no busting reason to rush home they have run the exercise to see what is possible at the moment.
Rounded down a little it would currently cost $A100,000 to get them home IF they could actually get flights.
They are safe and comfortable and have no current issues, but the thought of that sort of cost is a bit daunting.
Yes similar for my son in Dubai and his British GF. Both currently still employed, so no visa issues and no reason to come home, but they have looked at it in case of family emergency or loss of job = loss of visa.

She's fine to go home to UK. Flights available, reasonable cost, no quarantine required.

He cannot even get an airline to take a booking to any port in Australia for any date into the future for the rest of 2020. This is the case for Emirates, and similar on Royal Brunei. Cost of business class (now the minimum required), if "maybe available after the end of October" was quoted at around $15k one way, one person. Of course as they are not married, the GF cannot come to Australia.

I am finding this distressing.
 
I think we are starting to see the start of planning for international borders opening (in some capacity) through all the language shifts this week..... Will be interesting to see how they manage it.

I certainly hope you are right @jakeseven7 - but I seem to have missed that. Could you give an example for me?
 
I certainly hope you are right @jakeseven7 - but I seem to have missed that. Could you give an example for me?

Abc reported yesterday the international arrival cap is agenda item for national cabinet and source quoted was a minister who announced it - google you should find it, I posted another article somewhere on here which had a reference to it :)
 
Abc reported yesterday the international arrival cap is agenda item for national cabinet and source quoted was a minister who announced it - google you should find it, I posted another article somewhere on here which had a reference to it :)
thanks, giving me some hope...
 
Yes similar for my son in Dubai and his British GF. Both currently still employed, so no visa issues and no reason to come home, but they have looked at it in case of family emergency or loss of job = loss of visa.

She's fine to go home to UK. Flights available, reasonable cost, no quarantine required.

He cannot even get an airline to take a booking to any port in Australia for any date into the future for the rest of 2020. This is the case for Emirates, and similar on Royal Brunei. Cost of business class (now the minimum required), if "maybe available after the end of October" was quoted at around $15k one way, one person. Of course as they are not married, the GF cannot come to Australia.

I am finding this distressing.
Hang in there. I have hopes for mid next year to visit our son and his partner. I refuse to accept otherwise.
 
On the positive side of the ledger....

Have you noticed how the mortality rate in countries that had appalling figures for their first two to three months have now fallen by up to 1/6th (largest I calculated)?

Yes, I allowed for the time delay with their various 2nd waves.

This positive development does not seem to be getting anywhere near the coverage nor money thrown at it to study exactly what changes in the various country's protocols seem to have led to this improvement.

EG: Something I have mentioned a few times (broken record :)) is that dating back to January it was very evident that CV loves peoples' eyes. Several decent studies done which 'strongly suggest' that wearing some type of eye covering (lab glasses, normal glasses or sunglasses) can reduce infection risk by 87%+ (results for medical staff in non-CV facing areas wearing masks but not eye protection).

This was even discussed at early National Cabinet meetings but ruled not to be disclosed as the National stockpile (budget surplus savings measure delaying spending) was way understocked on eye protection & unable to source).

Sourcing is nowhere near an issue now but it seems fear of being shown up for deliberately 'misleading' is all that is stopping this being recommended.

It is certainly less harmful than any Stage 3 or Stage 4 lockdown, and much more palatable compared with wearing a mask. Yet not mentioned.

Commonsense explanation of how/why it works: CV requires moisture to survive & a pathway (vector) into the body. The damp surface of your eyes ticks both boxes. A pair of glasses (NOT skinny 'fashionable' ones) both provides a physical barrier to direct impact and also creates a slight airflow disruption to boot. Secondary benefit (as those who normally wear glasses know well) it also significantly reduces touching the area around your eyes (risk of cross-contamination from your fingers) massively due to the side arms of the glasses.

350 words later....

So, as we all want to get flying yesterday - if AFFers start passing on this suggestion to all we meet (people already know we're different...) then you can make a real difference. You'd be surprised how many shop assistants actually have teared up when I make the suggestion!

Go on, give it a go......
 
Commonsense explanation of how/why it works: CV requires moisture to survive & a pathway (vector) into the body. The damp surface of your eyes ticks both boxes. A pair of glasses (NOT skinny 'fashionable' ones) both provides a physical barrier to direct impact and also creates a slight airflow disruption to boot. Secondary benefit (as those who normally wear glasses know well) it also significantly reduces touching the area around your eyes (risk of cross-contamination from your fingers) massively due to the side arms of the glasses.
As a glasses wearer myself, I agree that it stops you touching your face. And given how filthy my lenses always are, it certainly makes sense that the lenses are blocking a LOT of stuff from entering my eyes!
 
  • Agree
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Sad story in SA media today.
SA couple’s desperate bid to get home from South Africa for surgery for sick daughter
An SA couple stuck in South Africa, desperately trying to return home so their baby daughter can have surgery are among the stranded Aussie’s calling for long-awaited help from home.

The couple has had multiple flights cancelled in the past few weeks – including when they forked out $23,000 for business-lass tickets for their family of five.

The couple was even told they were on a repatriation flight, only to arrive at the Qatar embassy in Pretoria and be turned away at the last minute.
 
This image provides a great summary on the vaccine front - reinforces the 'picture worth a thousand words' saying.

2020 09 03 Vaccine timelines.png

Any decisions made in 2020 or Q1 2021 on any of the vaccines will be before any of their phase III trials have been completed.

Will come down to 'financial' or 'political' priorities over-riding the generally accepted (for good reason given some spectacularly bad vaccines pressed into service early) scientific process has been completed.

The FDC declaration of 'deliveries beginning possibly by November 1st' just joins the 'other priorities' wins (Russia & China using vaccines).

If something does go wrong then the future of vaccines globally will have been dealt a fatal blow. Anti-vaxxers would use it as justification to reject any & all vaccines. The US did enough harm in Pakistan & Afghanistan with the CIA covert campaign to vaccinate people for polio.

How the bin Laden Raid Put Vaccinators Under the Gun in ...
www.nationalgeographic.com › news › 2015/02 › 150...


Feb 25, 2015 - Almost four years later, polio remains a significant threat in Pakistan, which ... Navy SEALs killed Osama bin Laden in May 2011, residents of the Pakistani town of ... The CIA's vaccination ploy didn't work exactly as planned.


Opening Australia's international borders may not end up being the problem - the closing of them a second time could be.
 
Any decisions made in 2020 or Q1 2021 on any of the vaccines will be before any of their phase III trials have been completed

I think it has been widely publicised that production of likely candidates is already well underway. Also, the community working on the vaccinations would be having a general understanding of success or otherwise of their trials, well before the scientific processes and reviews are completed.
 
AUSTRALIAN ARRIVAL CAPS SO RESTRICTIVE THEY AREN’T BEING FILLED, UNWORKABLE - SAY AIRLINES


International airlines have argued Australia’s arrival caps have made flying so unprofitable that they are now halting trips altogether – meaning even fewer stranded Aussies are coming home than the restrictions allow.

The Board of Airline Representatives of Australia (BARA) suggested on Wednesday the solution is to both increase capacity in hotels and allow flexibility on quarantine for those who arrive from areas with less COVID-19 cases.

The industry body’s new intervention comes days after it announced it would take its members six months to return all citizens stranded abroad if the current cap system wasn’t relaxed.

The restrictions limiting the number of Australians who could fly home at any one time were first introduced in July to regulate the flow of people arriving into government quarantine facilities and were extended again last Friday.

 

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