Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[RAM]

I think the powers at be need to wake up, or else Australia will not have a tourism or aviation industry full stop. The fact that the government has agreed to purchase enough vaccines for the whole population is not a solution. To sit there and wait for a vaccine before resuming international travel and opening state borders is a nothing strategy that will kill the aviation industry. This is ridiculous. A vaccine, if we are being optimistic isn't going to be available for 6 - 9 months - at best.

We need to devise strategies to live with this virus. IMO, money and R&D should be put into developing accurate rapid-fire tests and antibody testing, making enough quantity for the population multiple times over. Try and get the whole population tested, allowing people to return to normal life based on a negative test result, or even a weekly/fortnightly test. This is far more realistic in the near future. People coming from overseas can then only quarantine for 5/6 days and get two tests (Day 1 and 5, assuming results returned in less than a couple of hours).

In the meantime, we allow the scientists the time to create a safe, effective vaccine with no pressure, which can force mistakes.

I know this isn't foolproof, but nothing is. There is risk in literally everything we do - it's about managing the risk. Covid-19 isn't going anywhere for the next few years. A vaccine, even if one is being optimistic won't be available before Q2/Q3 2021. Then, you need to convince people it is safe. Then you need everyone to get it, which will take weeks/months. We need to forget the vaccine - just for now - and devise strategies to manage the virus and go about things as safe as possible.

There is definitely something driving the focus of media articles. For example many, many stories about the Victorian Govt's modelling in the last week or two - yet virtually no coverage on what has to rank as potentially a $200+ billion & 400,000 job cost from an input error with the model (still) relied upon by the Federal Government. Or perhaps that is exactly the reason - the fear of major legal actions for negligence?

Trouble is that some of the scientists don't check their work...

I cannot believe the revelation that the 'model' relied upon (still) by the CHO, Federal Govt etc - on border closures, JobKeeper, schools etc etc was not even checked to ensure the correct numbers were entered into the excel spreadsheet.

Despite many researchers querying the accuracy of the model, the Federal Govt refused to supply it to those outside of the loop (aka external consultant gravy train) as it was 'Cabinet in confidence'. Sound familar? Just like all 'National Cabinet' discussions are & likely reason it was renamed as previously the meetings were on public record - minutes, reports, everything.

So the Queensland based scientist works backwards to create what she believes is the model & finds that the figures for ICU beds required must have been set at a rate between 3 & 8 times what it should have been based on the evidence available AT THAT TIME from Italy, China, Germany & France.

She confronts the 'model champions' with her evidence and they cave - admitting that they'd put the 'total hospitalisations' figure in the 'ICU beds required' cell. Reality - out by a factor of 4 (based on the 'official' model's formulae).

The Federal Govt was notified of this error by the 'official scientific consultants' in early June. No change has been made to the model's public numbers YET.

Does not really provide the community with much hope does it?

The high profile example of Tom Hanks & his wife flying back to Australia from LA recently does not match what is on record (& spoken about frequently) that only Australian citizens & permanent residents are allowed into Australia. Nothing about foreign nationals coming in for work.

Since all the registered Australians (with DFAT) who were wanting to come home as at July 31st - would have arrived by Sept 2nd given the daily/weekly caps - why haven't they then?

'Close relatives' of Aust citizens & permanent residents are also allowed into Australia, yet the evidence from quarantine workers is that on many flights they make 60+% of passengers vs the 'official' statistics that they are a fraction of that figure.

The 'official' figures also list ZERO foreign nationals arriving for work. Zero.

One issue that has not been discussed at the current proceedings looking into the Melbourne Hotels breaches - that a number of those at the hotels in quarantine speak no or virtually no English. The lowly paid security guards definitely are not required to be fluent in multiple languages either.

 

[RAM]

Is there a reason the vials have to be single use? Obviously the syringes need to be but why can't the container come in larger sizes?

Yes.

The flu vaccine in Australia (made & assembled by CSL) comes as an all in one glass vial/single use syringe AFAIK. I have not ever seen a multi-use large capacity vial/bottle - (does that exist?).

Normally anyone can purchase the flu vaccine from a chemist etc. A chemist, if they have a suitably qualifed person on staff (nurse, medical student past a certain stage etc) & a private room - can administer it then & there.

Same with GPs. However, normally there may not be multiple people wanting the flu shot at the same time, let alone on the same day. So high chance that the vaccine would not get used within the maximum permissible period once opened. A cynic may say that CSL makes more margin by supply it as a combined vial/single use syringe vs only supplying the vials. The truth is somewhere between the two - could supply both larger capacity vials & single use vial/syringe. Who knows.

BTW - Public hospitals in NSW do NOT stock the hooping cough vaccine for the general public, not even in their specialist clinics. You need to go and see a GP to get that. I asked about it a couple of years back when being checked out for a persistent cough that stumped the local GP. After the various tests came back negative (at the specialist clinic for NSW) they suggested I should have another shot of the hooping cough immunisation as like most - they last less than ten years at best (just like tetanus etc), they don't stock it , only available from local GP.

 

[RAM]

Everybody seems to be focusing purely on the International travelers requiring Quarantine, what about the Domestic side of the equation? Anybody seen any data on those?

If you look at my post a few days back I put the link in for 'International Arrivals & Departures'.

The same Fed Govt site has domestic data for all transport modes as well.

Domestic aviation activity

Summary Time series

www.bitre.gov.au

Remember the articles a few weeks back on Canberra Airport thinking of shutting down?

Not sure on the 'focusing' bit - if you mean the media - I'd say there are around the same number (or more) stories on domestic flying as international. On AFF - there are many separate threads on international & domestic respectively.

 

[Pushka]

There is definitely something driving the focus of media articles. For example many, many stories about the Victorian Govt's modelling in the last week or two - yet virtually no coverage on what has to rank as potentially a $200+ billion & 400,000 job cost from an input error with the model (still) relied upon by the Federal Government. Or perhaps that is exactly the reason - the fear of major legal actions for negligence?

Trouble is that some of the scientists don't check their work...

I cannot believe the revelation that the 'model' relied upon (still) by the CHO, Federal Govt etc - on border closures, JobKeeper, schools etc etc was not even checked to ensure the correct numbers were entered into the excel spreadsheet.

Despite many researchers querying the accuracy of the model, the Federal Govt refused to supply it to those outside of the loop (aka external consultant gravy train) as it was 'Cabinet in confidence'. Sound familar? Just like all 'National Cabinet' discussions are & likely reason it was renamed as previously the meetings were on public record - minutes, reports, everything.

So the Queensland based scientist works backwards to create what she believes is the model & finds that the figures for ICU beds required must have been set at a rate between 3 & 8 times what it should have been based on the evidence available AT THAT TIME from Italy, China, Germany & France.

She confronts the 'model champions' with her evidence and they cave - admitting that they'd put the 'total hospitalisations' figure in the 'ICU beds required' cell. Reality - out by a factor of 4 (based on the 'official' model's formulae).

The Federal Govt was notified of this error by the 'official scientific consultants' in early June. No change has been made to the model's public numbers YET.

Does not really provide the community with much hope does it?

The high profile example of Tom Hanks & his wife flying back to Australia from LA recently does not match what is on record (& spoken about frequently) that only Australian citizens & permanent residents are allowed into Australia. Nothing about foreign nationals coming in for work.

Since all the registered Australians (with DFAT) who were wanting to come home as at July 31st - would have arrived by Sept 2nd given the daily/weekly caps - why haven't they then?

'Close relatives' of Aust citizens & permanent residents are also allowed into Australia, yet the evidence from quarantine workers is that on many flights they make 60+% of passengers vs the 'official' statistics that they are a fraction of that figure.

The 'official' figures also list ZERO foreign nationals arriving for work. Zero.

One issue that has not been discussed at the current proceedings looking into the Melbourne Hotels breaches - that a number of those at the hotels in quarantine speak no or virtually no English. The lowly paid security guards definitely are not required to be fluent in multiple languages either.

It is a moot point. It was a model developed to guide public health planning for a pandemic allowed to run its course and was based on no policies being implemented to prevent spread.

As soon as Australia implemented any public health change, like washing hands, social distancing, closure of risk venues etc etc, the modelling became less and less relevant. Did we buy too many respirators? Yes. But thats a small price to pay.

And in context, at the time much of the influential talk discussed what was happening in Italy - we could never trust what China was stating about the death rate - and Australia did not want to become the next Italy. So Italy became the beacon for what could happen here if the modelling was correct and we did nothing.

 

[Danger]

I think most (if not all) would agree the US hasn't handled the pandemic as well as it could have but this news is interesting nonetheless.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced Wednesday that international travelers will no longer be required to undergo enhanced COVID-19 testing upon their arrival to the U.S.

The CDC said in their announcement that international arrivals will not be screened for COVID-19 because “symptom-based screening has limited effectiveness” and asymptomatic passengers could continue to transmit the virus while passing the screening. Instead, the CDC will pivot its COVID-19 efforts “to more effective mitigation efforts that focus on the individual passenger."​

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[beefarmer]

It is becoming increasingly clear to me that full opening of international borders will only happen when a vaccine is available and one is vaccinated. If there is no vaccine, it could be a very loooong time (even years) before the international borders are fully open again, especially for leisure travel!

Yep, i would have to agree with you but look at the European Union. They are all free to go anywhere I believe each to their own risk assessment. I would not be going to Spain if it were a hot spot but the Greek Isles may be safe haven. Who knows? A nd what about travel insurance just in case you got sick. That will be a minefield. I do think though that plenty of things will settle down before next July, the earliest as is mentioned here. It could be that people are saving their monies for a bigger and obviously later holiday.

The difficulty in International tourism is that countries know it is needed but without a vaccine, would the NZ prime minister allow some punters from a hot spot to arrive? No way. No vaccine no travel. Tourism has to get back to some level of normality.

 

[Pushka]

Yep, i would have to agree with you but look at the European Union. They are all free to go anywhere I believe each to their own risk assessment. I would not be going to Spain if it were a hot spot but the Greek Isles may be safe haven. Who knows? A nd what about travel insurance just in case you got sick. That will be a minefield. I do think though that plenty of things will settle down before next July, the earliest as is mentioned here. It could be that people are saving their monies for a bigger and obviously later holiday.

The difficulty in International tourism is that countries know it is needed but without a vaccine, would the NZ prime minister allow some punters from a hot spot to arrive? No way. No vaccine no travel. Tourism has to get back to some level of normality.

I can see policies being issued that simply exclude Covid but offer every other condition eg accident etc.

 

[Flashback]

In the EU travelling from the UK we have the EHCI we can rely on, on top of any insurance policy. Of course that's only good till 31/12 this year until we Brexit. But until then I will continue to wander....

 

[hb13]

As RAM nicely put it in another thread... 'heads I win, tails you lose'.

QF has had years of massive profits. Yet at the first sign of trouble none of those profits seem to go back into the business or the welfare of staff and customers. They essentially close down.

Many small businesses are digging in to their own pockets to support staff... to keep people employed. Digging in to their bank balances or drawing on lines of credit.

I think there is difference between businesses who can see somewhat of a "light at the end of the tunnel so to speak". The overly harsh lock-downs, a lot of which have not been supported by medical staff make it impossible for any tourism/travel company to know when this will all be over.

Look at Queensland - shutting the border between them and ACT. Look at the goal for Victoria - saying lockdowns to be eased only when cases are less than 5 per day. These are nice ideas but completely and utterly unrealistic.

Again to my point previously, we need to ramp up testing to have every single person in Australia and people visiting Australia - bar none - be able to get tested multiple times, or as frequently as possible. That is the only way for a quick (relatively) return to some form of normality in life - and a way for the travel sector to begin to rebuild, and hopefully re-employ all those who have been made redundant.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

We have probably less than 5 million of the A grade tests

 

[Pushka]

In the EU travelling from the UK we have the EHCI we can rely on, on top of any insurance policy. Of course that's only good till 31/12 this year until we Brexit. But until then I will continue to wander....

I know son has a Europe trip firmly in his sight once he gets to the UK and after his iso but not somewhere that requires another iso on return. Greece sounds nice.

 

[Flashback]

I know son has a Europe trip firmly in his sight once he gets to the UK and after his iso but not somewhere that requires another iso on return. Greece sounds nice.

A lot of Greece is on the naughty list though.. the list changes on a weekly basis so best to book fairly last minute. Cheap flights in most cases anyway.

 

[serfty]

In the EU travelling from the UK we have the EHCI we can rely on, on top of any insurance policy. Of course that's only good till 31/12 this year until we Brexit. But until then I will continue to wander....

What is EHCI? EU261/2004 or something different?
Haven't the UK legislated that such regulation remains the same as it was while in the EU with some UK based difference until such time as the regulation is specifically changed in Parliament?

 

[p--and--t]

A lot of Greece is on the naughty list though.. the list changes on a weekly basis so best to book fairly last minute. Cheap flights in most cases anyway.

Saw the travels of a Londoner in the last week or so on social media where he and his girlfriend flew to Mykonos and spent a week there. Looked like pre-covid normal. No masks, quite few on the beach in restaurants etc.

 

[Flashback]

What is EHCI? EU261/2004 or something different?
Haven't the UK legislated that such regulation remains the same as it was while in the EU with some UK based difference until such time as the regulation is specifically changed in Parliament?

Applying for healthcare cover abroad (GHIC and EHIC)

Find out if you're eligible to apply for a new UK EHIC or UK Global Health Insurance Card (GHIC).

www.nhs.uk

An EHIC gives you the right to access state-provided healthcare during a temporary stay in another EU country, Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein or Switzerland.

We're currently in a transition period till 31/12, so normal EU regs etc. apply. Come 1/1, all gone. For EU261/2004 which is related to airline compensation, similar legislation has been written into UK law which is good. Not much progress on other areas though.....

Saw the travels of a Londoner in the last week or so on social media where he and his girlfriend flew to Mykonos and spent a week there. Looked like pre-covid normal. No masks, quite few on the beach in restaurants etc.

Measures in place and restrictions varies per country. We were in Italy a few weeks back and everyone was wearing masks when required. Spain this week for us, France next so can report back on compliance there.

 

[DC3]

Rather than to wonder when, I wonder how international travel will resume after Coronavirus crisis, as Moderna has going to the final stage of testing for their vaccine, followed by Oxford University and Johnson's and Johnson's.

That said if successful, we will have some vaccines by September and Coronavirus will get defeated within months from that point ..

Looking back over some posts from June, it’s interesting how optimistic some were.

 

[serfty]

An EHIC gives you the right to access state-provided healthcare during a temporary stay in another EU country, Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein or Switzerland.

Thanks ... never have come across the acronym before.

 

[dajop]

Looks like SQ are betting on inbound caps on arrivals remaining in December and January.

On Expertflyer, availability is set to 0 for all but one flight a day to SYD (& MEL), and on the single flight only the highest business and economy fares (Z, Y booking classes) are available, and with them, they are often less than the maximum number of seats shown (9), for example from 2-8 December it is by day Z9 Y7, Z8 Y9, Z7 Y0, Z9 Y8, Z9 Y6, Z9 Y9, Z9 Y9). The after Xmas bookings (ie. from 11th December onwards) seems to have more consistent 9s available.

First dates I can see availability at other fare levels is 1 Feb.

 

[antycbr]

Looks like Gladys is getting annoyed about NSW taking more than their population percentages of international arrivals.

My recommendation to Gladys: only allow pax who have endpoint NSW or maybe ACT to enter into Sydney. All other states can sort their own arrangements out. I don’t see why the NSW Government should take on the risks and costs on behalf of states such as Queensland. They can sort out their own arrangements via their own premiers.

NSW is talking more than the rest of the country combined.

 

[jakeseven7]

Looks like Gladys is getting annoyed about NSW taking more than their population percentages of international arrivals.

My recommendation to Gladys: only allow pax who have endpoint NSW or maybe ACT to enter into Sydney. All other states can sort their own arrangements out. I don’t see why the NSW Government should take on the risks and costs on behalf of states such as Queensland. They can sort out their own arrangements via their own premiers.

I think in principal that is a fair question.

VIC can’t be too far away now from coming back online to help as well. Thank goodness despite political party differences Dan and Gladys actually seem to have a practical and working relationship to sort these and other related things out.