Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[dajop]

I fully expect all my mates in the uk to be back at work and out in bars while our border is firmly locked, it just doesnt feel like a priority or a concern to them.

And bars are closed in Australia still? And most Australian's are not "back at work"?

 

[jase05]

I fully expect all my mates in the uk to be back at work and out in bars while our border is firmly locked,

Most of us here are already doing that safely.
Many of my relatives live in the UK and they all wish they were here

 

[hb13]

And bars are closed in Australia still? And most Australian's are not "back at work"?

I think Pom-DownUnder was referring to Australian borders closed only. For some people in Australia, and more importantly many Australians stranded with visas and money running out, opening of Australian borders, or at least easing restrictions to allow more people to go to Australia is critical.

I don't see any restrictions on Aussie borders easing till mid-2022. Then, I think add at least another year before there is almost normal open travel - if this ever happens again.

The Aussie government just doesn't care about that.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

I think Pom-DownUnder was referring to Australian borders closed only. For some people in Australia, and more importantly many Australians stranded with visas and money running out, opening of Australian borders, or at least easing restrictions to allow more people to go to Australia is critical.

I don't see any restrictions on Aussie borders easing till mid-2022. Then, I think add at least another year before there is almost normal open travel - if this ever happens again.

The Aussie government just doesn't care about that.

Indeed, let me clarify, I fully expect my mates to be in bars and able to leave their country as and when they desire to while we are still running around slamming borders shut to something we are vaccinated against.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Indeed, let me clarify, I fully expect my mates to be in bars and able to leave their country as and when they desire to while we are still running around slamming borders shut to something we are vaccinated against.

The PM was on ACA tonight answering some pretty direct questions like 'if we are vaccinated, why would we still have the borders closed'. The PM said they know the vaccine will reduce symptoms, but they're also hoping for a reduction in transmission. If it does reduce transmission, borders could be open sooner rather than later (assuming we all get vaccinated by October). But even without a reduction in transmission, there was no concrete '2022'. It was a case of 'let's see what happens in the next few months'.

I got the impression he understood people want to be let out, and want to travel!

 

[hb13]

The PM was on ACA tonight answering some pretty direct questions like 'if we are vaccinated, why would we still have the borders closed'. The PM said they know the vaccine will reduce symptoms, but they're also hoping for a reduction in transmission. If it does reduce transmission, borders could be open sooner rather than later (assuming we all get vaccinated by October). But even without a reduction in transmission, there was no concrete '2022'. It was a case of 'let's see what happens in the next few months'.

I got the impression he understood people want to be let out, and want to travel!

I saw the interview as well. To me it is clear the PM or any of his cabinet do not really care how long international borders are closed for. To me, the 'concrete 2022' comment basically meant Australia's borders may well be closed beyond 2022.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I saw the interview as well. To me it is clear the PM or any of his cabinet do not really care how long international borders are closed for. To me, the 'concrete 2022' comment basically meant Australia's borders may well be closed beyond 2022.

Goes to show how each of our mindsets interpreted the same interview differently!

I was actually saying there was no concrete statement that borders would remain closed until - or during - 2022 as some media are making out. He didn't rule out border openings in 2021, let alone mention anything about 2022.

And the limiting factor on politicians is two fold.. the ballot box and the Biosecurity Act. The latter has to have good reasons to extend any restrictions or face a challenge.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

From that interview "

What triggers will allow for international travel?​

"I think one of the key things will be a vaccine that prevents transmissibility."

"The vaccines that we have that is still to be confirmed ... at this point the medical advice is that we can't assert that at this point, but that may well change."

i really just dont get this, once the populace is vaccinated you are looking at even with a modest 70% coverage for people just not getting the disease to the rest having a much milder time of it, even if they had no benefit from the vaccine you are talking 30% getting a disease with a 99% survival rate, which basically means i could fit a years worth of deaths into my ute. (and bear in mind 1200 die on the roads every year so ...)

 

[wenglock.mok]

I guess part of the problem is that even if the disease is mild to the vaccinated people who do catch it, they could then pass it on to someone else, who for medical reasons may not be able to be vaccinated, and lead to severe disease in them. That’s why the emphasis on being able to prove a reduction in transmissibility to reduce the chance of that happening as much as possible.

My uneducated guess says if the vaccines have been proven to cause a reduction in severity of the disease, it would seem to follow that there is a corresponding reduction in the shedding of viral particles = reduced transmissibility, but that’s purely my non-scientific reading of it.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

I guess part of the problem is that even if the disease is mild to the vaccinated people who do catch it, they could then pass it on to someone else, who for medical reasons may not be able to be vaccinated, and lead to severe disease in them. That’s why the emphasis on being able to prove a reduction in transmissibility to reduce the chance of that happening as much as possible.

My uneducated guess says if the vaccines have been proven to cause a reduction in severity of the disease, it would seem to follow that there is a corresponding reduction in the shedding of viral particles = reduced transmissibility, but that’s purely my non-scientific reading of it.

Agreed, someone that is sick for months must shed more than someone that is sick for a week, ultimately the vaccines are going to be what the vaccines are, based on that you either open up, or you dont, time isnt going to change it. (once all are vaccinated who want it).

 

[Must...Fly!]

I guess part of the problem is that even if the disease is mild to the vaccinated people who do catch it, they could then pass it on to someone else, who for medical reasons may not be able to be vaccinated, and lead to severe disease in them. That’s why the emphasis on being able to prove a reduction in transmissibility to reduce the chance of that happening as much as possible.

My uneducated guess says if the vaccines have been proven to cause a reduction in severity of the disease, it would seem to follow that there is a corresponding reduction in the shedding of viral particles = reduced transmissibility, but that’s purely my non-scientific reading of it.

Someone like that might well have been severely compromised by a seasonal flu.

 

[N860CR]

Someone like that might well have been severely compromised by a seasonal flu.

And sadly, many many people die of the flu every year. When this COVID is behind us, that will go back to happening again. And I suspect ABC won’t pull the election counter out of storage to track it.

 

[hb13]

Someone like that might well have been severely compromised by a seasonal flu.

Exactly. At this rate, why ever open the border up again?

 

[PineappleSkip]

Googled comparative death rates and found this recent article comparing flu and COVID
COVID Far More Lethal Than Flu, Data Shows

Despite the attention-grabbing headline, the article indicates that the disparity in death rates isn't quite as much as some of the fear and loathing would suggest. If you factored in a reduction of say 80% in severe disease and death, the mortality rates would appear to converge*.

*Disclaimer: I'm a punter, not an epidemiologist!

Cheers skip

 

[dajop]

i really just dont get this, once the populace is vaccinated you are looking at even with a modest 70% coverage for people just not getting the disease to the rest having a much milder time of it, even if they had no benefit from the vaccine you are talking 30% getting a disease with a 99% survival rate, which basically means i could fit a years worth of deaths into my ute. (and bear in mind 1200 die on the roads every year so ...)

Let's see 30% of 25,000,000 = 7,500,000. 99% survival rate = 7,425,000, = 75,000 deaths. But only 10% are exposed, say, so that 7,500 deaths. You must have one helluva ute

Maths aside, the epidiemology is much more complicated than this, and ones hopes there will be a path to opening travel with a vaccine, and that it does indeed reduce transmissiblity in many individuals.

 

[desafinado74]

My gut feel is that populist Scomo will re open the international borders just before the 2022 election, just so that "grateful " folks will vote for him.

The longer the borders stay closed, the more pressure will be added onto Scomo etc by the industries anyway.

And i suspect the various vaccines will reduce the transmission rate. At the very least, there will be less hosts for the virus to replicate , and thus, hopefully it means less cases globally and we can get really on top of it finally.

 

[dajop]

And i suspect the various vaccines will reduce the transmission rate. At the very least, there will be less hosts for the virus to replicate , and thus, hopefully it means less cases globally and we can get really on top of it finally.

 

[Rembrandt]

I really think it'll be a case of most of europe / usa vaccinated and returning to normal while we are clown-car-ing around shutting down states over 2 or 3 cases. I fully expect all my mates in the uk to be back at work and out in bars while our border is firmly locked, it just doesnt feel like a priority or a concern to them.

We will easily catch up to Europe and North America in vaccinations. Australia is making a majority of the vaccinations here locally and will have a better roll-out plan in place.

Australia will be cautious to open up too soon and rightly so. A vaccination may only be good for roughly 6 months before you require another full dose. We just don't know how effective the vaccination will be against the virus in the general public. It's certainly not going to make this virus disappear and we may need to wait for a proper coivd treatment before we're confident that it wont overburden health systems. It's sad to say but this is going to kill off a lot older people for awhile.

I wouldn't look at Europe or the US in admiration regarding getting back to normal either. If anyone is close to normal it's roughly a dozen countries like Australia, NZ, Taiwan, Vietnam, Singapore etc. The way the Europeans and North Americans have handled this virus has been disgraceful and the western powers in many eyes have really fallen from grace.

 

[drron]

My gut feel is that populist Scomo will re open the international borders just before the 2022 election, just so that "grateful " folks will vote for him.

The longer the borders stay closed, the more pressure will be added onto Scomo etc by the industries anyway.

And i suspect the various vaccines will reduce the transmission rate. At the very least, there will be less hosts for the virus to replicate , and thus, hopefully it means less cases globally and we can get really on top of it finally.

I think if he waits until 2022 he will lose the election.The poll numbers are changing slowly with more people gradually switching to the no border closures camp.
A poll currently running at news.com.au has robust contact tracing and living with the virus at 47% and hard border closures at 53%.
So my guess is announcing some form of reopened border in August/September with an election in September/October.

The politics will trump the virus.

 

[Flashback]

Those results from Israel are promising. I would say in the next 4-5 weeks we should have more information and data from Israel as they have given first doses to about 53% of the population now. Similarly, I would expect in the UK we should also get some good data at the end of February as 9 million people in the UK have been vaccinated as of 30th of January.

Indeed, nearly 600k on Saturday. The figures are going in the right direction.