Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[JB expat]

I would hope this to be somehow true, but there doesn't seem to nearly enough cunning in the leaders attend these national meetings for such a strategy, I'm afraid.

Agree...now I really want a lottery - that will do it. $50 million - with 50 possible winners of $1 million each. Everyone fully vaccinated by X date is eligible with X being 2 months post full supply. Automatically entered via medicare unless you opt out. Will get us there a whole lot faster and a bet at much less cost than the current plan with incentives that I fear won't appeal to enough people.

 

[hb13]

So these targets - basically 80% of eligible people need to be vaccinated for caps abolished for returning Australians - is this correct? And are eligible people over 16s or over 12s? Because last week over 12s were approved for the vaccine in Australia right?

Does that mean returning Australians will need to quarantine at home? And for how long - will it be 7 days or 14 days?

 

[roogirl]

This is another no-plan. Australia will NEVER get to 80% vaccination. And really nor does it need to if you accept that covid will become endemic and some level of infection will occur. So now the new timetable goes something like

- Christmas - nowhere near 70% of people are vaxxed. Pleas to the population to do so.

- start of election campaign - say March 2022 - still lagging horribly. Any sensible question about what happens next if the 70/80% target is reached is displaced by jingoism and partisan pre election politics and sound bites.

- post election - whichever party is in power releases another “4 horizons style” plan conditional on lots of other things happening.

- then..???

I don’t see international travel coming back / home quarantine coming in before 2023 with these hurdles.

 

[MooTime]

This is another no-plan. Australia will NEVER get to 80% vaccination. And really nor does it need to if you accept that covid will become endemic and some level of infection will occur. So now the new timetable goes something like

- Christmas - nowhere near 70% of people are vaxxed. Pleas to the population to do so.

- start of election campaign - say March 2022 - still lagging horribly. Any sensible question about what happens next if the 70/80% target is reached is displaced by jingoism and partisan pre election politics and sound bites.

- post election - whichever party is in power releases another “4 horizons style” plan conditional on lots of other things happening.

- then..???

I don’t see international travel coming back / home quarantine coming in before 2023 with these hurdles.

With that kind of attitude your an anti vaxer for sure.

Very optimistic outlook, lucky your not in gov.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

80%? it might aswell be 300% we are stuck here forever, absolutely gutless.

 

[Flashback]

When you look at the world vaccination rates no country has achieved 70% fully vaccinated.Yet we are going to get to 80%.
View attachment 254304

The UK broke through 70% yesterday fully vaccinated, but that's based on who is eligible so does not include children under 18.

 

[roogirl]

With that kind of attitude your an anti vaxer for sure.

Very optimistic outlook, lucky your not in gov.

Eh? I’m double vaxxed, with the evil Astra Zeneca no less.

It’s not government’s job to be optimistic, as the current debacle in Sydney / the approach to the vaccine stroll out very clearly shows. It’s their job to come up with a plan that deals with the circumstances they face.

Anyway, interested in how YOU think this is going to play out. What’s your prediction? Everyone is vaxxed by Christmas, borders open January and everything is tickety boo?

 

[NoName]

Agree...now I really want a lottery - that will do it. $50 million - with 50 possible winners of $1 million each. Everyone fully vaccinated by X date is eligible with X being 2 months post full supply. Automatically entered via medicare unless you opt out. Will get us there a whole lot faster and a bet at much less cost than the current plan with incentives that I fear won't appeal to enough people.

They could (should??) have 1 lottery each month for a year and give 1,000 winners $1m each and it would still be a drop in the ocean compared to what has already been spent.

 

[Pushka]

They could (should??) have 1 lottery each month for a year and give 1,000 winners $1m each and it would still be a drop in the ocean compared to what has already been spent.

Somehow I think everyone in the decision making process is getting hung up on the 'ethics' of financial incentives and in the process is screwing up what could be a golden opportunity to maximise vaccination.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

quick maths
note sure how realistic 60k doses on weekend days is i have food ordered so dont have time to look it up lol

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

quick maths
note sure how realistic 60k doses on weekend days is i have food ordered so dont have time to look it up lol

View attachment 254315

honestly i couldnt make this s**t up ... that calc comes out to 8/12/21 and my booking is ....

 

[MooTime]

quick maths
note sure how realistic 60k doses on weekend days is i have food ordered so dont have time to look it up lol

View attachment 254315

We're a chance of 2021. Great calc.

I think with tga approving Pfizer for 12-15yo's that 80% pop figure may need to be increased.
This has to be confirmed ASAP, like next week by PM. Vital, but not sure when that age group will get their chance at the jab & also comes down to the parents giving the ok.
What other countries doing with 12-15yo?

 

[louie-m]

quick maths
note sure how realistic 60k doses on weekend days is i have food ordered so dont have time to look it up lol

View attachment 254315

Problem with that calculation is assuming that 200k per (week)day will continue once (a) Sydney gets its outbreak under control (at which point people will stop thinking they are at risk, as has been seen in Melbourne since their last big outbreak eased) and (b) those keen to get jabbed have been jabbed. I think, sadly, that your estimate is wildly optimistic.

Post automatically merged: Jul 30, 2021

honestly i couldnt make this s**t up ... that calc comes out to 8/12/21 and my booking is ....

View attachment 254317

BA16? That's even more optimistic!

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Problem with that calculation is assuming that 200k per (week)day will continue once (a) Sydney gets its outbreak under control (at which point people will stop thinking they are at risk, as has been seen in Melbourne since their last big outbreak eased) and (b) those keen to get jabbed have been jabbed. I think, sadly, that your estimate is wildly optimistic.

Post automatically merged: Jul 30, 2021

BA16? That's even more optimistic!

I really think once it gets to about 60-65% the enthusiasm will drop off a cliff, thats the real problem.

 

[mviy]

It’s boiled down to a classic chicken and egg problem. We need incentives such as reopened international borders to motivate the stragglers to get vaccinated, but they won’t give that incentive until the vaccine target is reached.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Maybe they're setting the target at 80% in the hope it spurs people to at least get to 70%? And when we get to 70% they'll say the medical/economic advice says it's ok to have home Q.

I can't see another Christmas of Aussies not being allowed to return.

 

[bernardblack]

Somehow I think everyone in the decision making process is getting hung up on the 'ethics' of financial incentives and in the process is screwing up what could be a golden opportunity to maximise vaccination.

(Please understand that I say this while agreeing with you.)

What's not ethical is locking millions of people in their homes, cutting into my kids' education and piling more and more debt for decades on my children so that apparatchiks can not-work from home rather than the office.

Post automatically merged: Jul 31, 2021

Maybe they're setting the target at 80% in the hope it spurs people to at least get to 70%? And when we get to 70% they'll say the medical/economic advice says it's ok to have home Q.

I can't see another Christmas of Aussies not being allowed to return.

I don't see how after eighteen months of this anyone could conclude, Actually they're being sensible but won't tell us about it.

 

[bernardblack]

It’s boiled down to a classic chicken and egg problem. We need incentives such as reopened international borders to motivate the stragglers to get vaccinated, but they won’t give that incentive until the vaccine target is reached.

Isn't it even more than that, that a large chunk of the people who don't want to get vaccinated legitimately don't care if they never go overseas?

The correct policy is: Screw them. I am entitled to leave. They can be vaccinated or not.

 

[arrow]

Isn't it even more than that, that a large chunk of the people who don't want to get vaccinated legitimately don't care if they never go overseas?

The correct policy is: Screw them. I am entitled to leave. They can be vaccinated or not.

Spot on, plus I think there is a benefit from having a date for the borders open as a threat to the unvaccinated; with the prospect of a surge in cases from inbound travellers, they’ll head out and get vaccinated

 

[MooTime]

Spot on, plus I think there is a benefit from having a date for the borders open as a threat to the unvaccinated; with the prospect of a surge in cases from inbound travellers, they’ll head out and get vaccinated

How is a date of opening a threat to the unvaccinated?

I struggle to see that as any type of threat.

Well have no date, it's a %%.