Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[OATEK]

Maybe not as soon as we'd like, but once that fully vaccinated percentage gets to say 40-50% the balance of public opinion between staying closed and opening up hopefully will shift considerably.

Hopefully in say October this pressure will lead to the plan as to when to allow international travel will change for the better.

I hope so but honestly I just don’t see it happening.

The Federal election will be the deciding factor IMHO. If there is a change in public opinion before next March then it might lead to an earlier election, but that is about the only hope of changing the % targets.

 

[jakeseven7]

The Federal election will be the deciding factor IMHO. If there is a change in public opinion before next March then it might lead to an earlier election, but that is about the only hope of changing the % targets.

Agree, as the double vaccinated number increases every day, people will demand exceptions to restrictions and rules etc - it’s starting to happen already.

The governments have to go very fast at this tipping point because they know the public patience is starting to wear thin, compliance to their rules is already falling and we are only just straggling towards 20%, what’s going to happen at 50%….

 

[jb747]

Lotteries are a silly idea as incentive. It has zero benefit for the vast majority, so why would they care. Perhaps an extra $5000 per year on the cost of your health cover, be it private or medicare, might be something that would be noticed.

 

[Pushka]

Lotteries are a silly idea as incentive. It has zero benefit for the vast majority, so why would they care. Perhaps an extra $5000 per year on the cost of your health cover, be it private or medicare, might be something that would be noticed.

People line up every week to buy them.

 

[drron]

Life in Tasmania is basically normal apart from travellers from other States periodically banned which seems not unlike the UK apart from OS travel.
I do try and look at all polls that are related to OS travel.I have noticed a slow increase in opposition to our closed border and even a couple with a thin majority in favour of opening.Obviously does depend on how the question is asked and who is asked.However if major polls do find a majority wanting to let us travel OS if vaccinated I don't think the Government will ignore that.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Lotteries are a silly idea as incentive. It has zero benefit for the vast majority, so why would they care. Perhaps an extra $5000 per year on the cost of your health cover, be it private or medicare, might be something that would be noticed.

The odds of this lottery would be pretty good! 1 million people a week eligible? Those are pretty good odds!

I suspect there are too many people who pay no medicare levy to be able to impose any sort of surcharge. If you're on a pension who would pay the $5000?

 

[I love to travel]

The odds of this lottery would be pretty good! 1 million people a week eligible? Those are pretty good odds!

I suspect there are too many people who pay no medicare levy to be able to impose any sort of surcharge. If you're on a pension who would pay the $5000?

If govt got creative vaccine passport required to buy cigarettes alcohol and take away food. We all know the health dangers of the list so it is a reasonable proxy and targets those more likelyt to interact with the health system. . I suspect that would fix it

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Lotteries are a silly idea as incentive. It has zero benefit for the vast majority, so why would they care. Perhaps an extra $5000 per year on the cost of your health cover, be it private or medicare, might be something that would be noticed.

Your idea is more expensive than the lottery idea.

 

[jb747]

People line up every week to buy them.

Yes, but it's not attempting to change their minds.

 

[ethernet]

Lotteries are a silly idea as incentive. It has zero benefit for the vast majority, so why would they care. Perhaps an extra $5000 per year on the cost of your health cover, be it private or medicare, might be something that would be noticed.

Why assume silly?. There are professional advisors who are experts in influencing people. In the US , and they determined it had a benefit, and was effective. But you are correct about the FOMO effect, or fear of loosing money, like a Medicare surcharge on the unvaccinated, or death duties on the unvaccinated, or a freeze on social security benefits, where the unvaccinated will get less. Or nobody unvaccinated, will get to fly /and/or pay a $400 risk surcharge and pay for boarding tests as well. But we have a cowardly PM who won't raise any 'stick' re vaccinations.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Why assume silly?. There are professional advisors who are experts in influencing people. In the US , and they determined it had a benefit, and was effective. But you are correct about the FOMO effect, or fear of loosing money, like a Medicare surcharge on the unvaccinated, or death duties on the unvaccinated, or a freeze on social security benefits, where the unvaccinated will get less. Or nobody unvaccinated, will get to fly /and/or pay a $400 risk surcharge and pay for boarding tests as well. But we have a cowardly PM who won't raise any 'stick' re vaccinations.

yeah - there are one or two countries that have 'receipt lotteries'. To combat undeclared income (tax evasion) through cash-in-hand payments, every receipt is entered into a lottery. Pretty quickly everyone was asking for receipts instead of paying cash!

 

[arrow]

Why assume silly?. There are professional advisors who are experts in influencing people. In the US , and they determined it had a benefit, and was effective. But you are correct about the FOMO effect, or fear of loosing money, like a Medicare surcharge on the unvaccinated, or death duties on the unvaccinated, or a freeze on social security benefits, where the unvaccinated will get less. Or nobody unvaccinated, will get to fly /and/or pay a $400 risk surcharge and pay for boarding tests as well. But we have a cowardly PM who won't raise any 'stick' re vaccinations.

I don't think the two are mutually exclusive. We can have a lottery but also have a levy (like the Medicare Levy Surcharge for those without PHC) of 5% if you're unvaccinated and it can apply across all income levels and even cut into Centrelink payments. That's a nice stick to get vaccinated!

 

[ethernet]

TRAVEL PREDICTIONS JUST GOT A WHOLE LOT WORSE
I read somewhere(Gladys?), that when we hit 80% vaccinations, lock-downs will be less likely. There are also nondeterministic qualifiers like states have agreed 'in principle' sprinkled in. I think AFF people can guess what WA and Vic might do. UK opened up at 70%, and that is costly with some breakthrough hospitalization expenses for NHS. But not so many deaths. 80% is a very, very high target. If you set it that high, you should set a penalty for those who opt out, and put others at risk.

Very few countries reached 70% vaccinated. I don't see .au hitting 80% without some gentle prods being applied. And NOTHING about post 80% quarantine or no-quarantine. All up in the air.
The PM should announce, those not vaccinated will not be allowed to fly overseas. Furthermore you have to wait some months after your final shot.

I think PM will not say this , because it makes bringing in overseas workers/ low skilled laborers/students problematical .

 

[jakeseven7]

TRAVEL PREDICTIONS JUST GOT A WHOLE LOT WORSE
I read somewhere(Gladys?), that when we hit 80% vaccinations, lock-downs will be less likely. There are also nondeterministic qualifiers like states have agreed 'in principle' sprinkled in. I think AFF people can guess what WA and Vic might do. UK opened up at 70%, and that is costly with some breakthrough hospitalization expenses for NHS. But not so many deaths. 80% is a very, very high target. If you set it that high, you should set a penalty for those who opt out, and put others at risk.

Very few countries reached 70% vaccinated. I don't see .au hitting 80% without some gentle prods being applied. And NOTHING about post 80% quarantine or no-quarantine. All up in the air.
The PM should announce, those not vaccinated will not be allowed to fly overseas. Furthermore you have to wait some months after your final shot.

I think PM will not say this , because it makes bringing in overseas workers/ low skilled laborers/students problematical .

WA has already come out and said they will ‘run their own race’… which is sad because they are already coming last

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I don't think the two are mutually exclusive. We can have a lottery but also have a levy (like the Medicare Levy Surcharge for those without PHC) of 5% if you're unvaccinated and it can apply across all income levels and even cut into Centrelink payments. That's a nice stick to get vaccinated!

So if you have a low income and no Centrelink, then you have no disincentive?

 

[arrow]

So if you have a low income and no Centrelink, then you have no disincentive?

That's why I suggested the 5% surcharge would apply across all income levels

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

That's why I suggested the 5% surcharge would apply across all income levels

OK, but I don't think that's how Medicare or Medicare surcharge works - in terms of low income earner like the famous late Kerry Packer

 

[Flashback]

Not if you’re double vaccinated. And if people choose not the be double vaccinated after being given fair warning once availablity is there, that’s on them. Not my job to keep making personal sacrifices for people who choose not to protect themselves.

Just to clarify - you are still vulnerable to the delta strains (and all other variants) if fully vaccinated, but the idea is that any impact should be less severe. I've got several friends who have had COVID here in the UK since being vaccinated, but they were very mild symptoms and no hospitalisations.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Just to clarify - you are still vulnerable to the delta strains (and all other variants) if fully vaccinated, but the idea is that any impact should be less severe. I've got several friends who have had COVID here in the UK since being vaccinated, but they were very mild symptoms and no hospitalisations.

be tempted to change vulnerable to susceptible

 

[Jacques Vert]

The PM should announce, those not vaccinated will not be allowed to fly overseas

Forget the PM; he will become irrelevant.

It's the insurance companies that will have the bigger impact IMHO. No vaccine, no travel insurance! I think this will have a bigger impact than anything the PM says.