Project Sunrise: A350 or 777X?

[jb747]

A350 order delayed due to coronavirus
'Survival of the fittest': Qantas cuts more flights, warns airlines will collapse

Mr Joyce said the present crisis was not the worst of his career, citing the near-disaster in 2010 when an engine explosion aboard QF32 caused an emergency landing of a Sydney-bound A380.

"That was probably the biggest thing I’ve ever gone through because people's lives were at stake," he said. "Everything always pales into significance compared to that."

I find a comment like this to be amusing at best. He did nothing during QF32. That was totally in the hands of a group of people that he values so little that he's currently threatening to replace them with cheaper Chinese off-casts.

The sort of decisions that he's making with regard to fleet use at the moment make sense. I actually agree with him for a change. But when lives are at stake, he is nothing but an outside observer.

 

[The man with no name]

Mr Joyce said the present crisis was not the worst of his career, citing the near-disaster in 2010 when an engine explosion aboard QF32 caused an emergency landing of a Sydney-bound A380.

These comments were made not even 3 weeks ago. Since that time the viability of the global airline industry has been called into question. Certainly most airlines will need a bailout to survive.

Needless to say Project Sunrise has gone the way of the dodo.

 

[PineappleSkip]

Needless to say Project Sunrise has gone the way of the dodo.

First I've heard of that. Whatever happens to QF their planes aren't getting any younger.

 

[codash1099]

Pilots seem to now be on board.

Qantas pilots back Project Sunrise pay deal, but virus delays aircraft order

Qantas' international pilot group has voted in favour of a new pay deal which the airline said was the final obstacle to it launching new non-stop flights to London and New York.

www.watoday.com.au

 

[jb747]

Pilots seem to now be on board.

The threats, and the current world situation, worked.

 

[Doctore1003]

I guess the answer to the OP is neither

Qantas non-stop London, New York flights on track for 2026

The Red Roo’s first ultra-long-range A350 flights are expected to lift off in the back half of 2026.

www.executivetraveller.com

 

[Flying Fox]

No surprises there.

Would actually be surprised if they went ahead with the aircraft purchase at this time.

Also read that QF had locked in facilities to raise another $500M in cash in addition to the $1.05B raised previously to assist with cash flows.

 

[hossein_au]

I would have thought there is now a strong(er) business case to bring the project forward. I am almost certain the "travel bubble" could be expanded at some time in the future to include other countries (possibly the UK). It would make sense to have non-stop flights between Australia and which ever countries are included in the 'bubble'.

 

[dajop]

I would have thought there is now a strong(er) business case to bring the project forward. I am almost certain the "travel bubble" could be expanded at some time in the future to include other countries (possibly the UK). It would make sense to have non-stop flights between Australia and which ever countries are included in the 'bubble'.

Is there a country in the world, Qantas can't operate to non-stop with a (near full) passenger load with its current fleet? The ones I see as "pushing the envelope" (exceeding PER-LHR distance) and therefore probably fall into the category as being unreachable on the 787 from both PER and SYD are Ireland, Portugal, Morocco, Mauritania, Senegal, Venezuela, Suriname and Guyana.

Yes there are probably going to be advantages to operating non-stop flights between Australia and the US &UK, but QF already have that capability.

All the huge capital expenditure means is that from SYD and MEL you don't need to stop in PER or LAX to get to LHR or JFK respectively.

 

[DavidFlynn]

I would have thought there is now a strong(er) business case to bring the project forward. I am almost certain the "travel bubble" could be expanded at some time in the future to include other countries (possibly the UK). It would make sense to have non-stop flights between Australia and which ever countries are included in the 'bubble'.

It's interesting, and part of the great unknown about the post-coronavirus travel market – how much appeal is in the 'bubble' and a non-stop flight?

It's said that in a modern airplane is a pretty safe environment in terms of air filtration, so as long as surfaces are thoroughly cleaned / disinfected and your fellow passengers are not giving COVID-19 a free ride, then you can see why some people would welcome a non-stop flight as a way of reducing exposure.

The other X-factor of course is that we are talking about middle of 2023, and who knows what the state of COVID-19 will be by then – how many countries it'll still be active in, what travel restrictions may still be in place, how travel insurance and company travel policies will shape the appetite for travel.

Air New Zealand notably cancelled its non-stop AKL-JFK plans, due to take wing in October this year, until the end of 2021 "at the earliest", simply because it has no confidence in knowing what that market will look like in 18 months' time – and Sunrise is almost twice that far away.

 

[hossein_au]

It's interesting, and part of the great unknown about the post-coronavirus travel market – how much appeal is in the 'bubble' and a non-stop flight?

It's said that in a modern airplane is a pretty safe environment in terms of air filtration, so as long as surfaces are thoroughly cleaned / disinfected and your fellow passengers are not giving COVID-19 a free ride, then you can see why some people would welcome a non-stop flight as a way of reducing exposure.

The other X-factor of course is that we are talking about middle of 2023, and who knows what the state of COVID-19 will be by then – how many countries it'll still be active in, what travel restrictions may still be in place, how travel insurance and company travel policies will shape the appetite for travel.

Air New Zealand notably cancelled its non-stop AKL-JFK plans, due to take wing in October this year, until the end of 2021 "at the earliest", simply because it has no confidence in knowing what that market will look like in 18 months' time – and Sunrise is almost twice that far away.

Yes, I don't think we'll have re-opening of the borders in any meaningful way before end of this year, and therefore Air New Zealand to delay their AKL-JFK makes sense to me. But I think (musings actually) by early to mid next year we will have enough passengers to warrant direct flights to places like the UK. That is why I thought bringing Sunrise forward to, say, mid next year would make sense. As you wrote, 2023 is too far away to put any tangible plan in action.

But hey, that is probably why AJ earns in a day what I do in a year!

 

[DavidFlynn]

Yes, I don't think we'll have re-opening of the borders in any meaningful way before end of this year, and therefore Air New Zealand to delay their AKL-JFK makes sense to me. But I think (musings actually) by early to mid next year we will have enough passengers to warrant direct flights to places like the UK. That is why I thought bringing Sunrise forward to, say, mid next year would make sense. As you wrote, 2023 is too far away to put any tangible plan in action.

Also worth noting is how quickly this whole COVID-19 has settled in for an extended stay and changed pretty much everything. On March 19 (I think it was) when Qantas first announced it was suspending all international flights, I got a heads-up call from QF PR advising that of course the BNE-ORD inaugural media trip of April 15 was cancelled but expressing a hope it'd be back on around September. Today, of course, there's less than the square root of bugger-all chance that BNE-ORD will be back before 2021, yet this is barely six weeks on from that first announcement.

So, Lord knows how much can change in the next six weeks or even six months. Let's cross fingers that whatever changes lay ahead for we who are suddenly infrequent flyers, that they are positive ones.

 

[esseeeayeenn]

It's interesting, and part of the great unknown about the post-coronavirus travel market – how much appeal is in the 'bubble' and a non-stop flight?

It's said that in a modern airplane is a pretty safe environment in terms of air filtration, so as long as surfaces are thoroughly cleaned / disinfected and your fellow passengers are not giving COVID-19 a free ride, then you can see why some people would welcome a non-stop flight as a way of reducing exposure.

The other X-factor of course is that we are talking about middle of 2023, and who knows what the state of COVID-19 will be by then – how many countries it'll still be active in, what travel restrictions may still be in place, how travel insurance and company travel policies will shape the appetite for travel.

Air New Zealand notably cancelled its non-stop AKL-JFK plans, due to take wing in October this year, until the end of 2021 "at the earliest", simply because it has no confidence in knowing what that market will look like in 18 months' time – and Sunrise is almost twice that far away.

I doubt that the UK will be one of the first countries we can fly to again, given that it is on track to be the worst hit country in Europe, with policies likely to lead to a longer (health rather than economic) recovery. For similar reasons the USA should be one of the last.
In the short term NZ is a possibility and perhaps the South Pacific - if we can persuade them we are not a health risk!
If PAX numbers are initially low that might favour a return to the hub and spoke model of air travel, rather than point to point flights.
This may well delay or even kill Project Sunrise.

 

[hossein_au]

I doubt that the UK will be one of the first countries we can fly to again, given that it is on track to be the worst hit country in Europe, with policies likely to lead to a longer (health rather than economic) recovery. For similar reasons the USA should be one of the last.

I concur. With a name like mine I did not want to get into the politics of it

In the short term NZ is a possibility and perhaps the South Pacific - if we can persuade them we are not a health risk!
If PAX numbers are initially low that might favour a return to the hub and spoke model of air travel, rather than point to point flights.
This may well delay or even kill Project Sunrise.

Yes, I think hubs and spoke will be the way to go for the foreseeable future.

 

[hossein_au]

Also worth noting is how quickly this whole COVID-19 has settled in for an extended stay and changed pretty much everything. On March 19 (I think it was) when Qantas first announced it was suspending all international flights, I got a heads-up call from QF PR advising that of course the BNE-ORD inaugural media trip of April 15 was cancelled but expressing a hope it'd be back on around September. Today, of course, there's less than the square root of bugger-all chance that BNE-ORD will be back before 2021, yet this is barely six weeks on from that first announcement.

So, Lord knows how much can change in the next six weeks or even six months. Let's cross fingers that whatever changes lay ahead for we who are suddenly infrequent flyers, that they are positive ones.

I'm just longing to get on a plane and go somewhere, anywhere... (I guess I'm not the only one feeling that way).

In the meantime I'm happy I'm saving tens of thousands of dollars (per year) I'd be spending on travel!

 

[dajop]

by early to mid next year we will have enough passengers to warrant direct flights to places like the UK.

Yes, QF will be ready to re-start non-stop flights from Australia to the UK, when there's demand and when it's acceptable from a health risk viewpoint, from "bubble" to "bubble" (if UK could even possibly become a "bubble"). However an east coast originating passenger will have to settle for an intra-bubble flight first.

 

[esseeeayeenn]

Yes, QF will be ready to re-start non-stop flights from Australia to the UK, when there's demand and when it's acceptable from a health risk viewpoint, from "bubble" to "bubble" (if UK could even possibly become a "bubble"). However an east coast originating passenger will have to settle for an intra-bubble flight first.

I don't think there is much hope of the UK becoming a bubble.
It is the second-worst affected country on the planet, only Trump's America is worse.

 

[kelvedon]

I don't think there is much hope of the UK becoming a bubble.
It is the second-worst affected country on the planet, only Trump's America is worse.

Sadly, and surprisingly Both Ireland, Belgium and Spain have more Coronavirus 19 infections per capita than the USA.

Infographic: Where COVID Tallies Are Highest Relative to Population

This chart shows the countries with the highest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases per one million population.

www.statista.com

 

[p--and--t]

Sadly, and surprisingly Both Ireland, Belgium and Spain have more known Coronavirus 19 infections per capita than the USA.

Infographic: Where COVID Tallies Are Highest Relative to Population

This chart shows the countries with the highest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases per one million population.

www.statista.com

fixed that

 

[kelvedon]

fixed that

Valid point