Qantas A380 reliability issues creeping up again?

[Cheatah]

Entire 747 fleet? It was 5 aircraft remaining in March 2020 and their retirement was accelerated a whole 6 months. Point is that fleet has evolved - that was always the plan.

You're somewhat missing the point - that market level capacity is down a lot and Qantas (airline and group) have returned capacity quicker than the market as a whole. Group international ASK 2H 2024 45,467 is higher than 2H 2019 48,839. Difference is that US capacity is down and been shifted to Asia, hence lower ASK. Figures originally quoted are seat counts.

BITRE don't publish ASKs, so seat counts is only measure that can compare QF and market capacity.

So, Qantas group international capacity is not up compared to 2019 as per your original post.

 

[evanb]

I’m just going via what’s been written in this thread and a few other reports. If it’s always been like this then I guess it’s less remarkable.

Sure an adaptable fleet. Problem is they are ‘adapting’ trans con A330s for transcon B737s.

I know we are a special subset of flyers here on AFF but it is kind of annoying when you book a flight with the particular air frame and it gets subbed out or delayed or cancelled. That said, I need to come clean in that being a keen QR flyer, their subbing out of QSuite birds is notorious and the diversity in their fleet means you never really know what might be coming. I nearly always fly out of Adelaide and that seems to be immune to the substitution thing.

So just anecdotes framed by recency bias? I'm not trying to argue that things are rosy, but I'm not sure that anecdotes are useful other than confirming one's priors.

Most of the A330 coming into international aren't coming off transcon, but off the triangle and Tasman. The corollary is whether those frames were efficiently utilised to begin with. A strong argument is that they weren't with the Tasman A330s primarily driven by ACCC dictats and triangle by cargo needs that are now better served by A321 freighters. Should they have remained there because of nostalgia?

Subs are certainly irritating but as you say this is not a unique issue to Qantas. They're best dealt with by product consistency across the fleet.

However, a counterfactual: recently Qantas were down a B787-9 for a month due to the damage during landing at Perth. They did a lot of swaps to cover for this with A333s covering a bunch of SYD-HNL flights and increasing utilisation of A380 on LAX-MEL to free up some B787-9 time. Should they have rather cancelled or delayed more flights to maintain consistency? Of course not! They also can't just have a spare B787 just lying around just in case. Would customers be willing to pay for that?

Point being is that things happen! The view that they prioritise something else over customers lacks context, or they wouldn't be going to great lengths like they did to cover the B787-9 outage. They can't have an infinite amount of underutilised resources and have to adapt.

Post automatically merged: Yesterday at 5:04 PM

So, Qantas group international capacity is not up compared to 2019 as per your original post.

No, you're being obtuse. I indicated it was seat capacity and indicated the reason why I used seat capacity rather than ASKs. Unlike ASKs it gives us market level data to compare to.

 

[Melburnian1]

Point being is that things happen! The view that they prioritise something else over customers lacks context, or they wouldn't be going to great lengths like they did to cover the B787-9 outage. They can't have an infinite amount of underutilised resources and have to adapt.

May I suggest you spend a few minutes reading the Qantas Cancellations/Delays thread so you can be more fully acquainted with the problems not just with its A388s, but B789s and A333s/A332s are having keeping to schedule and avoiding cancellations?

 

[RSD]

Well in some good shock news - QF11 departed right on time today

 

[evanb]

May I suggest you spend a few minutes reading the Qantas Cancellations/Delays thread so you can be more fully acquainted with the problems not just with its A388s, but B789s and A333s/A332s are having keeping to schedule and avoiding cancellations?

I'm not ignoring that. I'm questioning what's systematic/non-systematic, and what's causing them. From my vantage point working in the industry (not with Qantas) we're seeing a very different world compared to a few years ago generating a myriad of evolving operational challenges and constraints.

Everyone on here seems to speak to it as some grand conspiracy against them. Nobody is sitting in Mascot thinking about how they're going to screw you.

At the same time, there's a scent of recency bias suggesting that things are worse now than they were pre-COVID. I'm not saying it's not but is there anything other than vibes to support that?

It's very easy to be an armchair quarterback and critique it. In the last month Qantas have had a number of pretty crazy exogenous events. ZNC got done for a month in PER; they've had two B787 IROPS diversions to outstations due to medical & weather; those have known-on effects across the network. They're a 50 aircraft widebody fleet. It's not like they can have unlimited redundancy.

 

[jase05]

They're a 50 aircraft widebody fleet. It's not like they can have unlimited redundancy.

That’s true but I think that many see their fleet as stretched and perhaps they have bitten off more than they can chew Obviously those A380’s sitting around idle for ever isn’t helping

 

[sudoer]

Nobody is sitting in Mascot thinking about how they're going to screw you.

Maximising shareholder profit usually comes at the customer's expense - it is the job of many at HQ to extract more money from customers while cutting their own costs.

Qantas has made several consecutive years of significant decisions and changes which have been detrimental to customers, often while pretending they are in the customer's best interest e.g. "simpler and fairer" and the long list of other "enhancements"

 

[downgraded]

The pandemic created a cargo boom

Did it really? Wasn't it simply that cargo didn't drop off a cliff in the same way human cargo did? Short sighted move to convert human carrying aircraft to cargo only had created its own problem.

 

[DC3]

So just vibes? Is there any evidence of systematic changes in reliability?

Maybe not. But we AFFers love a bit of conjecture

 

[RooFlyer]

Everyone on here seems to speak to it as some grand conspiracy against them. Nobody is sitting in Mascot thinking about how they're going to screw you.

I follow what you comment on here and respect it, recognising that it’s from experience in the industry. But that’s a bit OTT.

For the most part , we are frequent flyers and we’ve seen a degradation of the service by Qantas since the pandemic - both hard and soft product. This thread is on the reliability of the A380 service - there may be some exaggeration but those affected will really have their trip screwed up. - they will see it from a personal experience, not a systemic point of view

In as much it was more or less the policy of Alan Joyce to absolutely maximise shareholder returns at the expense of customers then The current situation might be regarded as the result of some sort of conspiracy. ( Don’t take that too seriously

 

[evanb]

That’s true but I think that many see their fleet as stretched and perhaps they have bitten off more than they can chew Obviously those A380’s sitting around idle for ever isn’t helping

Agreed. The A380s have become a huge drag and the impact on capacity is relatively magnified. But there's an incongruency in the argument that people are making that capacity is down yet the fleet is over utilised.

I was interested in the fleet availability and did an analysis on it a few weeks back: Qantas's long haul fleet capacity: how much of an impact did the pandemic have?

Been working on a follow-up to measure fleet availability against capacity, and also fleet availability weighted for size. It still needs some refinement but I can't see a smoking gun that suggests they're pushing it too hard.

 

[moa999]

e.g. "simpler and fairer

And that was 10yrs ago

Qantas Introduces a Simpler (Needlessly More Complex), Fairer (Fewer Miles on Cheaper Fares) Frequent Flyer Earning Program - View from the Wing

Qantas is completely revamping its mileage-earning structure effective July 1. In general it is meant to award more points on higher fares, and fewer points on lower fares. But they haven’t gone with a revenue-based model the way that Delta has. They aren’t rewarding points based on ticket cost...

viewfromthewing.com

 

[evanb]

Did it really? Wasn't it simply that cargo didn't drop off a cliff in the same way human cargo did? Short sighted move to convert human carrying aircraft to cargo only had created its own problem.

Net cargo revenue by FY ($ million):
2018: 895
2019: 971
2020: 1045
2021: 1316
2022: 1963
2023: 1380
2024: 1211

 

[evanb]

I follow what you comment on here and respect it, recognising that it’s from experience in the industry. But that’s a bit OTT.

For the most part , we are frequent flyers and we’ve seen a degradation of the service by Qantas since the pandemic - both hard and soft product. This thread is on the reliability of the A380 service - there may be some exaggeration but those affected will really have their trip screwed up. - they will see it from a personal experience, not a systemic point of view

In as much it was more or less the policy of Alan Joyce to absolutely maximise shareholder returns at the expense of customers then The current situation might be regarded as the result of some sort of conspiracy. ( Don’t take that too seriously

I get it, but also think that people get blinkered by recency bias. It was funny when people celebrated Joyce's demise. I argued at the time that it's all good and well, but that people shouldn't expect any change. Companies are more than one person and that Hudson wasn't likely to be different to Joyce since she's faced by the same constraints.

People can build their own version of what's possible, but airlines spend a fortune on aircraft and fitting them out. You're effectively competing for scarce capital so making a profit isn't enough. You need to make enough to justify the investment in the aircraft and then generate sufficient return on capital to attract that capital, so not to end up like undercapitalised Bonza or Rex. So yes, everyone wants to fly new aircraft with the fanciest amenities and somehow pay without generating a good return.

 

[moa999]

And management is also making guesses for 5-10yrs ahead..

Had Qantas not scrapped the 2 A380s.. they'd probably still be sitting in VCV or AUH waiting for engineering capacity to enable return to service.

And we are getting closer and closer to the 350 deliveries, which will arguably displace some 380 capacity.

 

[Sprucegoose]

Agreed. The A380s have become a huge drag and the impact on capacity is relatively magnified. But there's an incongruency in the argument that people are making that capacity is down yet the fleet is over utilised.

I was interested in the fleet availability and did an analysis on it a few weeks back: Qantas's long haul fleet capacity: how much of an impact did the pandemic have?

Been working on a follow-up to measure fleet availability against capacity, and also fleet availability weighted for size. It still needs some refinement but I can't see a smoking gun that suggests they're pushing it too hard.

Yes, I read your article and agree that the pandemic caused significant disruptions for Qantas. It drastically reduced its long-haul fleet, and its various challenges in returning aircraft to service have impacted its capacity. On top of that, the need for heavy maintenance and refurbishments (a 380 D check takes 100 days) has further complicated this process, impacting the airline's capacity to meet surging demand. However, as these cycles are completed, fleet availability is expected to stabilise, highlighting the importance of strategic planning and flexibility in fleet management.

This position is expected to improve as more aircraft are returned to service and new deliveries are added to operations.

What is the textbook's response to a Black Swan event, and how do you predict demand/growth?

 

[evanb]

And management is also making guesses for 5-10yrs ahead..

Had Qantas not scrapped the 2 A380s.. they'd probably still be sitting in VCV or AUH waiting for engineering capacity to enable return to service.

And we are getting closer and closer to the 350 deliveries, which will arguably displace some 380 capacity.

100% they'd still be sitting awaiting their D-check. Even LH and EK are running well behind on A380 D-checks. No idea how people expect QF to somehow jump the queue.

 

[Sprucegoose]

And we are getting closer and closer to the 350 deliveries, which will arguably displace some 380 capacity

There are 12 350-1000's due between 2026 and 2028, where Qantas understandably has pressed Airbus for supply certainty.

The 380s won't be displaced, given that they will be a fixture for the next ten years or so

Introducing the Airbus A350-1000s will indeed boost Qantas’s overall fleet capacity. The A380s will represent a smaller percentage of the total capacity as these new aircraft are integrated. The A350s, with their design for ultra-long-haul flights, will offer Qantas greater flexibility and efficiency, helping to meet demand on key international routes.

The fleet mix will subtly evolve as new and higher-capacity aircraft are added to the fleet.

 

[p--and--t]

I get it, but also think that people get blinkered by recency bias. It was funny when people celebrated Joyce's demise. I argued at the time that it's all good and well, but that people shouldn't expect any change. Companies are more than one person and that Hudson wasn't likely to be different to Joyce since she's faced by the same constraints.

People can build their own version of what's possible, but airlines spend a fortune on aircraft and fitting them out. You're effectively competing for scarce capital so making a profit isn't enough. You need to make enough to justify the investment in the aircraft and then generate sufficient return on capital to attract that capital, so not to end up like undercapitalised Bonza or Rex. So yes, everyone wants to fly new aircraft with the fanciest amenities and somehow pay without generating a good return.

I hear you and agree with you. Others will not and persist with alternate views regardless of the reality.

 

[elanshin]

Agreed. The A380s have become a huge drag and the impact on capacity is relatively magnified. But there's an incongruency in the argument that people are making that capacity is down yet the fleet is over utilised.

I was interested in the fleet availability and did an analysis on it a few weeks back: Qantas's long haul fleet capacity: how much of an impact did the pandemic have?

Been working on a follow-up to measure fleet availability against capacity, and also fleet availability weighted for size. It still needs some refinement but I can't see a smoking gun that suggests they're pushing it too hard.

I think one thing you didn't take into account when purely looking at the a330-200 was how many of these were not meant to be in international service and have now been pushed into Int'l service. (The so called domestic planes).

That's how they've managed to reasonably keep the capacity in line from losing the capacity. They've pulled a lot more a330 off transcon to service the Int'l routes. The a330s are also regularly having problems and we watch them pull a plane that was going to PER over to cover.

Also whilst the fleet in a380 has only officially declined by 2, in practice we've never had more than 8 frames active post covid. At its worst it was 6 for quite a long period of time.

This may have been why there's a discrepancy between your analytics and what people's anecdotes feel like.