Qantas Delays/Cancellations

[jb747]

And many jobs (for example changing a generator, or even an engine) take well known amounts of time.

 

[Melburnian1]

And many jobs (for example changing a generator, or even an engine) take well known amounts of time.

Fair point. In today's case, departure ended up being at 1154, so the employees beat the prediction by six minutes, allowing predicted arrival to be sped up by 10 minutes to 0840, 125 minutes late by the time it arrives at the LAX terminal.

 

[Melburnian1]

On Friday 12 August, the QF11 tag flight left LAX at 0835, 15 minutes late, creditably arriving JFK at 1636, four minutes early. Along with a few other delayed AA flights, the returning QF12 was tardy, departing JFK at 1924, 74 minutes behind schedule and arriving LAX at 2138, 33 minutes late. The different aircraft-operated QF12 then pushed back in LAX at 2347, 77 late with Sunday 14 August arrival predicted to be 70 minutes late at 0740.

Meanwhile QF94 departed 56 minutes late at 2311 with MEL Sunday morning arrival likely at 0755, 55 minutes behind time and again delaying the 0915 hours QF93 back to LAX. The third flight, QF16 to BNE, was worst affected, departing 135 minutes late at 0135 on Saturday 13 August with its Sunday arrival delayed by 110 minutes to 0800. The latter should not (all things going well) delay QF15 back to LAX much if at all, as the predicted arrival time gives the aircraft two hours to be unloaded, provisioned, fuelled and loaded - a task that probably can done in an hour 45 minutes most days.

Unless one of our esteemed contributors has a more informed opinion, AFF member Quickstatus' hypothesis about the extremely busy international airport that LAX is for departures late at night as a key reason why these westbound QF flights keep being delayed may be a reasonable explanation. One weather site is discussing a 'heatwave' in New York but I am unsure if this added to the delays for QF.

Travellers returning back from LAX to Oz on QF should hope for the best, but expect delays.

 

[jb747]

One of our esteemed contributors mentioned runway works at LAX but notably on some nights the AA flight ex LAX seems to take less time on a gate-to-gate basis across the Pacific than the QF 'colleagues.'

Where are you getting 'gate to gate' times from?

 

[Melburnian1]

Where are you getting 'gate to gate' times from?

From the QF website in some cases. Depending on when I look at them, they may be estimates (and hence subject to revision), or records of actual terminal-to-terminal achieved times.

 

[Melburnian1]

On Sunday 14 August, QF575, the 0815 hours SYD - PER diverted to ADL. It landed at 0959, and is suggested as departing for the trip across the Bight at 1035 ADL time. This will mean arrival in PER at least an hour late at 1220 this afternoon. Was this a medical diversion?

A388 VH-OQJ on the 0915 MEL to LAX departed at 1045 with same day arrival predicted to be 70 minutes behind schedule at 0745 hours. The shorter BNE - LAX QF15 is also late, courtesy of its arrival as QF16 this morning, departing the 'Sunshine State' 63 minutes tardy at 1103 but forecast to only be 35 minutes late at LAX - 0635 hours. Not sure if its transcontinental flight as QF11 would see it held for connectees from QF93, given that if QF11 is delayed from LAX to JFK, this in turn hampers QF12 back across the USA, which can as we have repeatedly observed in previous posts delay the LAX late night departures to the Australian east coast.

The long, tiring flight between SYD and JNB, QF63, has been delayed by an expected hour to 1150. Arrival is suggested 50 minutes late at 1800 hours.

 

[Melburnian1]

The delayed Sunday 14 August QF15 arrived in LAX (ex BNE) at 0655, 55 minutes tardy. The more heavily delayed QF93 pulled in at 0755, 80 late. QF11 then departed from LAX at 0949, 89 minutes late, arriving in JFK at 1820 hours, 80 minutes late.

From JFK, QF12 is showing as an estimated 2015 hours departure, 125 minutes late with LAX arrival estimated at 2240 on Sunday evening, 95 minutes late. Heavy thunderstorms for Sunday evening are predicted in New York with some domestic AA flights also predicted to depart late, so that may not assist with reducing the turnaround to an hour 45 minutes even if a slot was available.

In turn, QF16 ex LAX on Sunday night and probably QF12 will be delayed. Quite often QF94 is allowed to depart on time with MEL-bound passengers transferred to QF12 to SYD and then a domestic flight down to MEL, hardly a great way to treat residents and visitors to Australia's second largest city, but the fairly tight turnaround for QF93 drives this decision.

There is a very good chance that the Tuesday 16 August 2016 QF15 (1000 BNE to LAX) will again be late, unless QF ferries up a B744 ex SYD to work the flight, which is relatively unusual. As a kind AFF member previously calculated - from memory, Quickstatus - utilisation of the B744 fleet is tighter later in a working week than on a day like Tuesday, so that is a positive if QF was considering swapping aircraft to try to minimise delays to QF15.

Presumably some AFF members who use QF to regularly fly between Oz and the USA are noting the poor punctuality of the QF LAX flights. It is occurring multiple times a month, though not every day.

 

[whughes3]

Just to further add to my discomfort after the QF19 divert to CRK on 5/8, my return QF20 last night was delayed by almost an hour due to ATC congestion at MNL. And when luggage delivery at SYD took almost 40 mins, I came alarmingly close to missing my connecting flight to MEL (and even then my bag did not make the connection). Not A good week!

 

[Melburnian1]

The delayed Sunday 14 August QF12 (see two posts above) did not push back at 2015 as estimated by QF, but at 2150.

There are media reports about how JFK was being evacuated at about 2130 due to alleged gunshots heard at terminal 1 and 8 but fortunately this B744-operated QF12 appears to have departed just before this took effect - perhaps everyone was boarded by 2130. The new arrival time at LAX is 0045, 225 minutes late.

In the circumstances, the passengers are probably 'lucky' that QF12 did not end up being cancelled - had it been still there half an hoyr later, passengers might have been asked to alight and be evacuated to the landside of the JFK terminal (if a decision was made to evacuate every terminal.)

In consequence, the A388-operated QF12 from LAX to SYD is estimated to depart at 0145 hours on Monday 15 - 195 minutes tardy - with arrival on Tuesday 16 at a suggested 0945, the same amount late.

As can occur on such occasions, QF16 from LAX to BNE is potentially worse affected with forecast pushback at 0300 hours on Monday 15 August - an extraordinary 220 minutes late - and arrival on Tuesday 16 at a suggested 0930, three hours and 20 minutes (or 200 minutes) tardy. QF15 on Tuesday morning is not yet showing as delayed so perhaps a spare B744 is being worked up from SYD.

UPDATE: For the record, New York police are suggesting that no gunshots were fired at JFK.

 

[Melburnian1]

Just to further add to my discomfort after the QF19 divert to CRK on 5/8, my return QF20 last night was delayed by almost an hour due to ATC congestion at MNL. And when luggage delivery at SYD took almost 40 mins, I came alarmingly close to missing my connecting flight to MEL (and even then my bag did not make the connection). Not A good week!

Unusually QF20 managed on Sunday 14 August to depart from MNL 12 minutes early at 1953 but then arrived today in SYD at 0658, 48 minutes late so as whughes3 points out, this equals a greater elapsed time of an hour than the schedule.

MNL handles more passengers than MEL, but the traffic mix at the former is more skewed towards international flights. Perhaps MNL's air traffic congestion is what MEL (to some extent) can expect in future years if as one esteemed contributor implied the third runway will be ineffective because it is not being built in the most desirable direction.

 

[DAC1]

Currently on QF95 MEL-LAX which has diverted to HNL due to a medical emergency on board. Current posted times have it arriving into LAX just over 2 hours late but probably subject to change.

 

[Melburnian1]

Currently on QF95 MEL-LAX which has diverted to HNL due to a medical emergency on board. Current posted times have it arriving into LAX just over 2 hours late but probably subject to change.

rabbits5, thank you: nothing beats an on-the-spot reporter. QF5 stopped in HNL from 0149 to 0255 hours with arrival in LAX suggested as 1047 instead of 0900. Other passengers are mostly accepting and understanding (since it could be you or me) but nonetheless some travellers are time sensitive and reliant on making another connection by air or surface modes.

While they might be small when compared with the number of flights operated, these medical diversions in theory may become more frequent as the median age of (in this case) Australians (who might a lot of the time comprise half or more of those on board a QFi flight) increases.

One wonders if it will get to the stage where airlines (subject to competitive pressures) may eventually require some sort of medical clearance for passengers above a certain age. The additional cost of the created attendant bureaucracy might not be worth it if airlines did a full analysis though.That said, any of us irrespective of age can have a stroke or coronary. Does the likelihood of either increase rapidly above a certain age?

 

[bosox76]

The short answer is yes it does. The the actual answer is much more complex than simply age. There are many variables that go into estimating coronary and stroke risk. In short, anyone with a family history, uncontrolled high blood pressure, cholesterol, diabetes, smoker, male, sleep apnoea and of course previous history are at an increased risk. As you could guess this is probably a fair number of people on any given flight. But getting way off topic now.

 

[Melburnian1]

Continuing the theme of QF delays across the Pacific, QF15 from BNE to LAX, the B744, is showing as pushing back at an estimated 1200 on Tuesday 16 August 2016 (two hours late) with arrival at 0745 rather than 0600.

Some many kilometres south, QF93 departed 53 minutes behind schedule at 1008 with likely arrival at the 'Hollywood gate' suggested as 0715 rather thn 0635. QF11 from SYD is punctual.

QF11 from LAX to JFK is displaying as 'on time' with a projected 0820 hours departure, but this is impossible if the aircraft from QF15 is forming it.

Tuesday night USA west coast time may therefore again see delays to QF12 and QF16.

 

[cove]

There was a fairly thick fog this morning around LAX.

 

[Himeno]

QF11 from LAX to JFK is displaying as 'on time' with a projected 0820 hours departure, but this is impossible if the aircraft from QF15 is forming it.

Tuesday night USA west coast time may therefore again see delays to QF12 and QF16.

Depends if QF15 is used for transcon. There are 2 747s at LAX on Mon, Tue and Wed. QF95 from MEL on Mon and Wed and QF11 on Tue.

 

[Melburnian1]

Thank you Himeno. Also on Tuesday 16 August, QF81, the 1020 hours SYD - SIN departed at 1127 with suggested arrival to be 40 minutes late at 1725 hours.

 

[Melburnian1]

Depends if QF15 is used for transcon. There are 2 747s at LAX on Mon, Tue and Wed. QF95 from MEL on Mon and Wed and QF11 on Tue.

The Tuesday 16 August across USA B744 from LAX to JFK (QF11) is now depicted as departing at a projected 0900 instead of 0820 hours, with forecast 'Big Apple' arrival at 1655 in lieu of 1640. The departure is still several hours away as I write.

Himeno, one of our contributing pilots made the point several months if not longer ago that whether a particular aircraft flies on (in this case) QF11 between LAX and JFK would depend upon how many cycles it had endured since its last major (or minor) check so apparently it is not always (as the railways or bus companies might do) of simply substituting one locomotive or road coach/ bus with another, fuelling it if required and departing. However it is good to know that effectively there is a 'spare' at LAX on three days of the week: potentially very handy for QF.

 

[cove]

QF11 is an A380 SYD to LAX and then the ongoing QF11 to JFK is a 747.

 

[Himeno]

QF11 is an A380 SYD to LAX and then the ongoing QF11 to JFK is a 747.

Except on Tuesdays when the A380 is used for DFW instead.