Qantas Delays/Cancellations

[milehighclub]

QF63 returned to the gate. It has pushed back again at 1431.

 

[Melburnian1]

Looks like it pushed back around 1.5 hrs ago but it still yet to depart Sydney.

Flyerqf, QF63 departed at 1431 (176 minutes tardy) and should arrive JNB at 1905 (150 late), meaning that the scheduled 1850 hours JNB - SYD (QF64) will be unable to depart prior to 2030 hours. The latter may pick up time on the schedule on the way to SYD but it won't be on time arriving tomorrow afternoon. If the B744 forms QF73 tomorrow arvo (the 1755 hours SYD - SFO) that will also be delayed.

QF is having many problems with its B744s, a trend that started within the last three weeks.

 

[Melburnian1]

B744 VH-OEB operated the Wednesday 3 January QF12 from JFK across to LAX, arriving 43 minutes late at 2133. It has since departed on QF18 to SYD, the 2335 hours 'holiday extra' that took off at 0031 on Thursday 4/

Howver B744 VH-OJT (that had earlier run the 'holiday extra' QF17 ex SYD) was meant to operate QF16, the scheduled 2320 hours Wednesday 4 ex LAX to BNE. This now looks to be departing 21 hours and 40 minutes late - i.e. an overnight stay in LAX - at 2100 hours on Thursday 4 for an expected Sunshine State arrival at 0445 hours on Saturday 5 January instead of 0715 tomorrow morning (Friday 5).

Advice from milehighclub, Flyerqf or another AFF member as to what the problem is would be appreciated.

The Friday 5 QF15 (1120 hours AEST late morning BNE - LAX) is showing as operating so QF must be ferrying a B744 up from SYD tomorrow morning.

Also on Friday 5, QF73 (another B744) is expected to depart SYD 110 minutes late at 1945 hours for SFO due to being formed by QF64, which as noted above will inevitably be late ex JNB due to the almost three hour late departure of QF63 this afternoon.

Again, more troubles for the QF B744 fleet. Perhaps another 'Courier Mail' (Brisbane) article awaits.

The Wednesday 3 B789, QF96, departed LAX 55 minutes late at 0030 on Thursday 4 for MEL but should only be five minutes late into MEL at 1015 on Friday 5.

 

[Flyerqf]

Interesting regarding QF16 delayed overnight. Same aircraft that was on the ground when QF25 was delayed overnight earlier this week before operating as QF17 to LAX the following day.

 

[Flyerqf]

The Friday 5 QF15 (1120 hours AEST late morning BNE - LAX) is showing as operating so QF must be ferrying a B744 up from SYD tomorrow morning.

QF6004 is due into BNE at 1035.

This will definitely leave 1 B744 service ex SYD on Fri 5 without an aircraft. Expect QF25 to be delayed overnight. All B744 ex SYD are showing as on time at this stage even though we know one will be impacted,

 

[Flyerqf]

Keep your eye on QF11 to JFK which is currently enroute.

Snow storm has closed JFK and lots of diversions and cancellations.

It’s already being held for an hour and the return QF12 is already late.

 

[Melburnian1]

QF6004 is due into BNE at 1035...

If true - no reason to doubt your information, as always Flyerqf - it's strange that QF is showing QF15 on Friday 5 January as only delayed until 1135, 15 minutes late ex BNE. I have never travelled on or observed a B744 turning around in an hour: an hour 38 is the best observed.

QF73, the 1755 hours SYD - SFO is predicted to depart at 2000 tonight as QF64 from JNB to SYD departed at 2127 (157 late) on Thursday 4, meaning arrival this early evening at 1810 rather than this afternoon at 1530. Again, an hour 50 is close to minimum turnaround time so no time for any necessary repairs.

QF63 is predicted as delayed by 20 minutes to 1155 in its journey to JNB.

We don't want to exaggerate but the B744 fleet must be an increasing headache for management with what at least on Thursdays to Mondays inclusive can be tight turnarounds and full utilisation. Any problems with QF15 and QF16 can see journey times for MEL, SYD and BNE to or from JFK blowing out, so it's not just BNE to LAX that's a concern.

The HND route ex SYD is an important one. If Flyerqf is correct, tonight will be the second time in a week that QF25 is delayed overnight. Terrible! In comparison, JL and NH, though not based in Oz, are incredibly reliable.

Many transport operators - air or surface - recognise that extremely intensive utilisation runs the risk of schedules eventually being adversely affected. What QF is doing with its 'little or no room for error' operation may be good for shareholders in the short term but repeatedly having flights delayed overnight - and hence delivering passengers to their destinations 12 to 24 hours late, not helped by other constraints such as the SYD curfew - is hardly good for a transport company's reputation.

UPDATE: As Flyerqf predicted, QF25, the 2135 hours Friday 5 January SYD - HND will now depart at 1435 hours on Saturday 6 for an estimated 2205 hours arrival in HND, meaning departure of tomorrow night's QF26 will be delayed to about midnight.

 

[Flyerqf]

QF11 has been directed to Detroit. QF took a gamble in leaving LAX whilst JFK was closed hoping it would be reopen. It’s not open due to severe snow storm.

It will be a long night of delays for QF12 and QF16 pax out of LAX one would assume.

 

[ayebee]

Thurs Jan 4 QF11 LAX-JFK was making reasonable time before doing several orbits at cruise altitude not far from usual top of descent near Scranton.
No flights currently landing at JFK. Maybe the "weather bomb" storm?
QF11 headed west and descending in the vicinity of Detroit.

Doesn't bode well for passengers on Thurs QF12 making connections tonight.

Oops - just noticed flyerqf's post well before mine.

 

[docjames]

Wow would love an insight into the decision making on that flight.

Whilst I "get" it's a decent distance trans-con and conditions can change, the flow on effect of capacity would be problematic, although traded off by the fact AA prob had no capacity to accommodate QF pax who would have been displaced by a trans-con cancellation.

Going to be problematic getting new crew into Detroit to get the aircraft back to LAX.

 

[milehighclub]

QF11 is returning to LAX.
QF16/12/94 will therefore all be on schedule tonight.

 

[Melburnian1]

Continuing with Friday 5 January 2018, QF93 (1115 hours MEL - LAX) was delayed until at least 1210 hours; arrival same day is estimated as 40 late at 0715 hours.

 

[docjames]

QF11 is returning to LAX.
QF16/12/94 will therefore all be on schedule tonight.

Great news.

Surprised the flight deck crew had sufficient hours for that (unless flight was "over-crewed" to increase operating hours?)? As isn't LAX-JFK typically a single leg for the day (ie. crew dont fly both directions on same day)?

 

[milehighclub]

It's not unusual this time of year for an additional pilot to be on the flights to JFK to extend their hours for this exact reason. But yes, the crew operate a single sector and overnight (both pilots and cabin crew)

 

[docjames]

It's not unusual this time of year for an additional pilot to be on the flights to JFK to extend their hours for this exact reason. But yes, the crew operate a single sector and overnight (both pilots and cabin crew)

Explains how they had the hours to do LAX-DTW-LAX.

Thanks @milehighclub

 

[Melburnian1]

QF11 is returning to LAX.
QF16/12/94 will therefore all be on schedule tonight.

Thank you milehighclub.

B744 VH-OJU on the diverted QF11 from LAX to DTW arrived at 1811, with the aircraft returning as QF12
in taking off from DTW at 2050 hours on Thursday 4 January. QF is showing LAX arrival at 0100 on Friday 5 January, which may be incorrect as with the time difference my guess was for an arrival in LAX at any time after 2315 hours.

 

[jb747]

QF11 has been directed to Detroit. QF took a gamble in leaving LAX whilst JFK was closed hoping it would be reopen. It’s not open due to severe snow storm.

It's not at all abnormal to depart if the destination is currently closed. The deciding factor is the forecast for the arrival. Looking at that, the weather isn't all that bad (at least in aviation terms, I'd hate to try walking down the street). They (ops control) certainly would have looked at the options, and the risks, before leaving LA. I'd expect they'd have been fuelled right up to near max landing weight, so options would have been pretty wide.

Going to be problematic getting new crew into Detroit to get the aircraft back to LAX.

Scheduling/ops are generally right on top of 'extra' crew. Poor forecasts are a trigger to add extra, to maximise the options if a diversion becomes necessary.

Surprised the flight deck crew had sufficient hours for that (unless flight was "over-crewed" to increase operating hours?)? As isn't LAX-JFK typically a single leg for the day (ie. crew dont fly both directions on same day)?

LAX-JFK is only flown one way, irrespective of whether it's a 'heavy' crew or not.

 

[milehighclub]

Thank you milehighclub.

B744 VH-OJU on the diverted QF11 from LAX to DTW arrived at 1811, with the aircraft returning as QF12.

The aircraft does not become the QF12. It remains as the QF11 and shows it did LAX-DTW-LAX.

 

[docjames]

LAX-JFK is only flown one way, irrespective of whether it's a 'heavy' crew or not.

Could you clarify as it isn't clear to me then how LAX-DTW-LAX (same day / return trip) is achievable?

Unless the "heavy" crew allows return from a diversion point (in this case DTW), but if they had arrived in JFK of course that's the end of their day.

 

[Flyerqf]

Could you clarify as it isn't clear to me then how LAX-DTW-LAX (same day / return trip) is achievable?

Unless the "heavy" crew allows return from a diversion point (in this case DTW), but if they had arrived in JFK of course that's the end of their day.

There is sufficient hours to operate LAX JFK and return but they choose not to. If they need to return back to LAX there is sufficient hours to do that too.