Sorry, I think this is being totally over stated. It's just not possible to earn that many points that it'll be a problem. My family spends about $13000 on groceries, about $1500 on fuel and who knows on grog at woolies, since I home brew, have a wine club and wineries nearby - maybe $2000.
So a absolute maximum of 16500 points per year. That's going to get my family 1 ADL-MEL. Well, spend on the right card an maybe 2 of us get to MEL. That's barely worth the effort.
Overstated? Maybe. Maybe not.
First, I think your analysis is very light on for grocery/booze/cigarettes/fuel expenditure for many families. I am half of just a two person family and we spend more than that. Even if I am not typical
I'd hazard a guess that there are many families spending more than you.
Second, you make the assumption that they'll take a trip a year. Maybe their "big trip" will be every three years with more points accumulated.
Finally, you assume it is discrete expenditure. I think it is much more likely to be added to points already earned on the family credit cards, maybe a trip or two a year on QF already and a use of some of the other non-flying ways you can already earn QFF points. I'd also suggest that a scheme like the Woolies one will increase "points awareness" so more credit cards, rather than cash, are used. The publicity it gets in it's lead in will be deafening.
My guess is that earning 80-100K non-flying points over three years, many of the from a new Woolies deal, will not be too hard. (IF any of them are devoted Amex forum users here, well the sky is the limit!:mrgreen
Another assumption. Lets say 10% of the population do it. Given the share of the market Woolies has I reckon that would be the minimum they would be aiming for. And assume they do a trip each third year.
That means that each year one third of that number, or roughly 700,000, will be coming into the pool seeking the same flights that other QFF'ers want.
I'm obviously making assumptions but even if I'm 50% wrong I stand by my earlier assertion that this is the most significant movement of the QFF scheme to a QFB scheme to date and is not good for those who are actually loyal to QF and earn most of their points by flying.
But I guess most of us knew that anyway. It certainly will increase my desire to get QF point usage bedded in and also to look at alternative non-QF flying uses of which there are quite a few. Those Amex points can have a lot of homes!