Totally agree with you and Steve Hui on this. I went through that exact thought process a couple of days ago over business class ski season flights to Japan. There are no CR on offer, but some very limited dates for CR+ showed up. Cash fares are quite expensive. However, common sense kicked in and I decided not to make any bookings at all for just now. I think I should be keeping my WP for next year courtesy of the DSC to be earned on my trip to see Seat Son over Christmas, and a few domestic flights and loyalty bonuses, so I maybe don't need to fly QF for the Japan trip. This might be a very good chance to try another airline/alliance. Although I will miss F Lounge in SYD, I think it's not worth the cost in either points or $ to fly QF. QF have lost the plot when a rusted on Fangurl like me, long term WP and LTG since 2013, is looking for a new alliance....
Between us, we have 3 million points. So at my current rate of burning those for domestic J flights, I'm not sure which will come first for the Seat Family - we use all the points or I reach LTP (only 41,000 SC to go!!)
. Either way I will be long past travelling age before either of those happens.
Here is the info from the QF web site. Only CR+ available to depart SYD-HND anytime in January 2025.
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I randomly selected 21 Jan as a suitable date for us, and this is the option. No CR for business seats, only CR+ at 174,700 points per person:
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Coming back, not many dates available.
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So I randomly selected 12 Feb for return and got this 222,300 per person for return flight:
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This is not looking good. No CR seats, limited CR+ seats at crazy points levels and high taxes