Qantas to move to new Perth Airport terminal, expand Perth hub

[dajop]

12 A350s is enough to fly the following routes

SYD-LHR
SYD-JFK
SYD-CDG
MEL-LHR
BNE-LHR
PER-LHR

With those routes, assuming they do happen (although I think double daily SYD-LHR is probably more likely than BNE) I don’t think EK, QR, SQ or others will be particularly concerned.

 

[RichardMEL]

Probably more likely to see a MEL destination than BNE-LHR imo (and agree potentially 2x from SYD, but slots...)

If PER keeps its service (we're talking over five years away mind- it probably would stay as a 787 than an A350-specially the premium heavy ones with F)

Of course by 2032 who knows how oir world will look - geopolitically and economically.

 

[moa999]

Remember QF (once they get back the BA slots) will only have four slot pairs at LHR.

And I suspect a xx_-SIN-LHR service will remain as some percentage of people (business and leisure) will prefer a transit or even stopover, fed by a bank of Aus flights.

 

[RooFlyer]

That aside prey tell where are all the aircraft coming from to serve Europe non stop by 2032 from 4 Australian cities in addition to New York? It takes a lot of planes to service 20 hr routes (2 per route to serve daily). Don’t recall QF ordering all that many.

Probably more than 2 per route? Allowing some down time for maintenance, planned and unplanned. Witness the A380 issues presently - not I’m saying the new A350s will have issues like the old A380s but unplanned stuff does occur.

Also possible maximisation of utilisation. I don’t know if Qantas have published indicative schedules yet but if it’s a long layover at either end anywhere, then it’s quite a big pile of unused money sitting there.

@jb747 is there's rule of thumb for number of airframes required to best service a long haul route, or, say 2 routes?

 

[Must...Fly!]

Considering they once flew 4 747s a day into London, I wouldn’t consider it unreasonable or ambitious for them to fly 5 A350s a day.

You do realise the market is a bit different to when QF flew 4x747s a day in to London?

Your post is unrealistic at best. There are games you can get on your mobile to live the fantasy of those routes out...

 

[RSVKanga]

Your post is unrealistic at best.

It’s your response that’s stuck in the past. The market favoured QF originally (which is why they flew 4x 747s to London), then it shifted to the ME carriers. But based on the outstanding performance of PER-LHR, there is every reason to expect that the market will shift back to QF strongly when nonstops from the east launch.

Again, just like how PER-LHR has consistently 95+ load factors and is the most profitable route in QF’s history (with majority of people flying to/from purely PER), I expect SYD-LHR, MEL-LHR and BNE-LHR to yield similar demand and results.

If there is so much demand for nonstop to London from Australia’s 4th largest city, a reasonable person would expect the same or more demand for nonstop from the 3rd, 2nd and 1st largest cities in Australia. It’s that simple. 5x A350 to LHR.

 

[jase05]

It’s that simple. 5x A350 to LHR.

Well actually it’s not that simple as they won’t get any more slots you would think. As Others have said I still think they will keep at least one via SIN

 

[RSVKanga]

Well actually it’s not that simple as they won’t get any more slots you would think. As Others have said I still think they will keep at least one via SIN

Exactly. SYD-SIN-LHR is here to stay and will likely be flown with a standard A350-1000 once the 380s are retired. There are slot issues that cap QF’s services at 4, but LHR isn’t the only London Airport. As I mentioned in my earlier post, one of QF’s flights would need to go to Gatwick instead, and that’s not unrealistic as many international airlines based in Asia, ME and North America fly into LGW. Plenty of BA connections at LGW as well.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Exactly. SYD-SIN-LHR is here to stay and will likely be flown with a standard A350-1000 once the 380s are retired. There are slot issues that cap QF’s services at 4, but LHR isn’t the only London Airport. As I mentioned in my earlier post, one of QF’s flights would need to go to Gatwick instead, and that’s not unrealistic as many international airlines based in Asia, ME and North America fly into LGW. Plenty of BA connections at LGW as well.

There's nothing premium about flying in to LGW, and Qantas doesn't require the capacity to fly there. They've invested a lot in to LHR, flying to LGW conflicts with the premium theme Qantas is trying to cultivate to make this strategy work.

If this whole Sunrise thing actually works (and the jury is very much out on that) I'm not sure I see SYD-SIN-LHR staying. It takes passengers away from the premium non-stop idea, and uses airframes that could almost certainly be better utilised elsewhere.

If there is so much demand for nonstop to London from Australia’s 4th largest city, a reasonable person would expect the same or more demand for nonstop from the 3rd, 2nd and 1st largest cities in Australia. It’s that simple. 5x A350 to LHR.

I think you are overestimating the market's capacity to supply Qantas with people willing to pay a significant price premium. The east coast is different to Perth in a number of ways.

 

[RooFlyer]

If this whole Sunrise thing actually works (and the jury is very much out on that) I'm not sure I see SYD-SIN-LHR staying. It takes passengers away from the premium non-stop idea, and uses airframes that could almost certainly be better utilised elsewhere.

Yes, I don't think they would want any leakage of the rusted on-flyers to a cheaper QF alternative via SIN, where they may then escape onto other airlines to continue to other ports in Europe. If you want to fly Qantas to Europe, you'll have to pay the premium to see the sunrise, or go elsewhere.

 

[Sprucegoose]

Except for those of us who love the sandpit.

Of course...............go and knock yourself out!

 

[Must...Fly!]

Yes, I don't think they would want any leakage of the rusted on-flyers to a cheaper QF alternative via SIN, where they may then escape onto other airlines to continue to other ports in Europe. If you want to fly Qantas to Europe, you'll have to pay the premium to see the sunrise, or go elsewhere.

Indeed, and I think that suits Qantas nicely. Why fight a battle you can't win?

And to my point above, the east coast is different in many ways - there are so many one-stop options from SYD and MEL.

 

[RooFlyer]

And to my point above, the east coast is different in many ways - there are so many one-stop options from SYD and MEL.

I'm not going to go there, again.

 

[TeaKozy]

If there is so much demand for nonstop to London from Australia’s 4th largest city, a reasonable person would expect the same or more demand for nonstop from the 3rd, 2nd and 1st largest cities in Australia. It’s that simple. 5x A350 to LHR.

Given QF have axed the LHR service from Australia’s (now) largest city, I’m not holding my breath. Agree with others though that once they’ve sufficient A350 frames to retire the superjumbos, it will be c’est la vie to the Kangaroo route.

 

[dajop]

There's nothing premium about flying in to LGW,

Although other premium carriers to do get around slot constraints at LHR - thinking EK, SQ and before Covid, even CX did. Not that I can see QF flying there, it certainly is not an airport for premium sunrise serives.

 

[RichardMEL]

QF still have that legacy Premium mentality going too ie Must. Serve. Heathrow and JFK because the prestiege if serving those key airports of those major cities.

It is perhaps not as prevalent as it once was, but there is no way QF will go anywhere but LHR in London as long as there is a LHR.

 

[dajop]

Probably more than 2 per route? Allowing some down time for maintenance, planned and unplanned.

I'm guessing 2 per route for the main routes, but some routes won't be served daily freeing up capacity for rotation and maintenance.

The scheduling will be interesting though, due to SYD and LHR curfew constraints, that could mean changes to the "traditional timings" (eg. the current time of departure of QF2 from LHR would be problematic due to an arrival time in SYD duing the curfew period at some times of the year at least).

 

[Himeno]

Remember QF (once they get back the BA slots) will only have four slot pairs at LHR.

And I suspect a xx_-SIN-LHR service will remain as some percentage of people (business and leisure) will prefer a transit or even stopover, fed by a bank of Aus flights.

and when QF flew 4 747s to LHR, they were also picking up people at the mid points (BKK, HKG, SIN).

The airline has already stated that once the sunrise flights start, they will keep the existing one stop flight via Asia as well.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Although other premium carriers to do get around slot constraints at LHR - thinking EK, SQ and before Covid, even CX did. Not that I can see QF flying there, it certainly is not an airport for premium sunrise serives.

Absolutely, it works for some. EK, CX, SQ limited by capacity at LHR - they wanted more flights in to London so it was their only choice. EK even fly in to STN! But they do have a large ME market & diaspora to leverage off which probably makes it worthwhile for them. Similarly CX and SQ have a lot of SE Asia to feed in both directions. Qantas doesn't have that.

 

[jase05]

Of course...............go and knock yourself out!

I can fully understand how people don’t like it but I find the region remarkable and love spending a few days or even weeks there. Not everyone’s cup of tea of course

Post automatically merged: Jun 2, 2024

it will be c’est la vie to the Kangaroo route.

But QF have already stated it’s staying