Well, what are the chances of Connor Rzee's knee being OK tonight despite being named?
You're possibly looking at shoulder to peak demand season and of course it will depend of your status next year, day of travel in terms of lijely J loadings, other pax mix of higher status etc.
Basically.. who can really know?
Tbh, I'd look to book the QF22/22 via MEL over the SYD flight as overall J demand seems lower on those sectors. Also the usual midweek travel may have less paid J, or say a Subday out of DFW maybe.
.really though, a year+ out... who can say?
.except that flex Y will be a huge boost to chances - ahead of nost in Y imo.