So what is going to happen when economy is oversold and a person wants to check-in that minute? Op-up someone or wait for someone else to request a points upgrade?
Some things just do not make sense....
I think there is a lot of confusion here - and misreporting.
At the moment - if your upgrade is not processed successfully at T-5 ( or whatever the current cutoff is), then you miss out - period - end of story.
It matters not whether someone no shows, or they fail to sell the remaining J seats - you miss out, and you may walk past empty seats and get pissed off that your upgrade wasn't processed despite there being empty seats.
(as an aside - opups are irrelevant here, as opups would only exist in an oversold situation PLUS there being empty J seats.
With the new process, they will run a further upgrade clearing process at the last minute, so in the event of no shows, or failing to sell the remaining seats, they can go ahead and still process outstanding upgrade requests rather than having the seats going empty.
It really is quite a simple concept and I struggle to understand why people are having such a hard time to grasp it. Maybe it's just me.
And I do not believe this will have any substantial effect on opups despite many here expressing concern about it.
Why? Simple really...
1/ To get an opup, you need to have an oversold Y cabin, available seat in J, and be lucky enough to be the selected person to be opupped. (not always done in status order).
2/ Under the current system, if they are oversold in Y, then they are unlikely to hold back any upgrade requests at T-5 if there are in fact spare J seats as they have the opportunity to "sell" the upgrade rather than give it away. Therefore if opups are occurring under the current system, then it is a fair assumption to make that all available requests were in fact processed.
3/ Under the new system, they would still be processing upgrade requests in preference to opups in an oversold situation, but in the event of a no show - then yes, IF there were still unsuccessful outstanding upgrade requests in the system, then that requestee would trump a WP who chose to play the 1 in a million lotto.
I truly believe this is a minuscule percentage of situations. But no doubt, anytime a WP misses out on an opup - it will be blamed on the new system.
4/ Moral to the story? If you want to sit in business class - lodge an upgrade request (same as current system).