RedQ or Red Herring?

[wilco]

777 please don't hijack this thread with logic and common sense as you'll confuse and upset people! Lol

 

[browski]

In the period Alan Joyce has been CEO the share price has tanked, they've lost market share, the employees hate him, Qantas' hard run reputation for safety and quality has taken a hammering and the company has gone consistently backwards by any measure you want to use.

If the PR is to be believed the best decision Qantas have done under AJ is to ground the entire airline. When shutting down your entire organisation is your masterstroke the bar is set pretty bloody low.

777, this is very, very funny, but be warned, you'll only attract scorn by stating facts.
........I'm surprised you did not refer to the aircraft type purchase bungle.....or the new lows they have reached with the federal government......or the (ahhhh forget it).

 

[drron]

I agree, what is the comparison, after all it was not to long ago that the red tail went to KUL, TPE and PHT as well as a few other destinations no longer served such as Harare and BOS, I expect South Africa ops were relying on a ETOPs change that never came!

And you are comparing QFi to VAi!And how long have the 2 airlines been flying?How many aircraft in each fleet.I would think as a percentage of places flown to VA have actually culled more.
Of course I remember flying into BOS on QF in ~1995 and it was not long after that it was dropped.
And also as simongr has mentioned since the time RedQ was first announced there has been an appreciable change in the ecxonomic news out of Europe not to mention China.I think it is quite prudent to consider those facts.
Anyway AJ has scotched the Fin review's article.I would suggest very few here know the details of RedQ in the first place,myself included.

 

[777]

And also as simongr has mentioned since the time RedQ was first announced there has been an appreciable change in the ecxonomic news out of Europe not to mention China.I think it is quite prudent to consider those facts.
Anyway AJ has scotched the Fin review's article.I would suggest very few here know the details of RedQ in the first place,myself included.

Seriously, don't you think there is something fundamentally different about airline based out of SIN getting a big chunk of its business out of Australian connections and one based out KL or HK or China or any of the many other places already mentioned that has little or no feed to or from Qantas? That is to say nothing of the "premium" travel market comparisons and the availability of infrastructure such as gates, lounge access, etc required for a premium product.

If you accept that there is a huge difference doesn't it necessarily follow that the plans are either 1. Not actually well thought through or 2. Obscured behind some sort of deliberate disinformation?

 

[wilco]

since the time RedQ was first announced there has been an appreciable change in the ecxonomic news out of Europe not to mention China.

Im sorry, but I have to disagree. I dont see any change in the economic news coming out of anywhere that should alarm Qantas. And for those of you that wish to take this comment out of context, I mean that the economic environment hasnt been conducive to this sort of expansion for YEARS! The whole idea from the outset was AJ's fantasy that was never going to see the light of day for the reasons that 777 has detailed.

 

[maninblack]

I think the fact that they they've ordered a fleet but not yet found a country to put them in is a sign the plan is either totally half-coughd or an elaborate decoy. If there's a coherent plan behind it they have done a lousy job of articulating it.

My money would be on "decoy" but I don't think current QF management could actually pull off something that complex. It requires foresight, smart negotiating skills and clever strategy. In the period Alan Joyce has been CEO the share price has tanked, they've lost market share, the employees hate him, Qantas' hard run reputation for safety and quality has taken a hammering and the company has gone consistently backwards by any measure you want to use.

If the PR is to be believed the best decision Qantas have done under AJ is to ground the entire airline. When shutting down your entire organisation is your masterstroke the bar is set pretty bloody low.

Post of the week award.

 

[drron]

Seriously, don't you think there is something fundamentally different about airline based out of SIN getting a big chunk of its business out of Australian connections and one based out KL or HK or China or any of the many other places already mentioned that has little or no feed to or from Qantas? That is to say nothing of the "premium" travel market comparisons and the availability of infrastructure such as gates, lounge access, etc required for a premium product.

If you accept that there is a huge difference doesn't it necessarily follow that the plans are either 1. Not actually well thought through or 2. Obscured behind some sort of deliberate disinformation?

Im sorry, but I have to disagree. I dont see any change in the economic news coming out of anywhere that should alarm Qantas. And for those of you that wish to take this comment out of context, I mean that the economic environment hasnt been conducive to this sort of expansion for YEARS! The whole idea from the outset was AJ's fantasy that was never going to see the light of day for the reasons that 777 has detailed.

I'm sorry I didn't realise that both of you had access to the RedQ plans.
As for the economic situation why has the ASX risen today on rumours of a bail out plan for Italy.
Why does Glenn Stevens say our economy is strong.
Why does Wayne Swan keep saying our economy is fine because of China.
I dont think it unusual if economists that QF consults thought the economy was better than it was but since the Italian"crisis" may realise it is not as good as many thought and predicted.
For the record I have been predicting GFC2 for 3 years and GFC1 for some time before that.

 

[maninblack]

For the record I have been predicting GFC2 for 3 years and GFC1 for some time before that.

My grandfather predicted the Great Depression and my great-grandfather knew with the Wright brothers

 

[wilco]

I'm sorry I didn't realise that both of you had access to the RedQ plans.
As for the economic situation why has the ASX risen today on rumours of a bail out plan for Italy.
Why does Glenn Stevens say our economy is strong.
Why does Wayne Swan keep saying our economy is fine because of China.
I dont think it unusual if economists that QF consults thought the economy was better than it was but since the Italian"crisis" may realise it is not as good as many thought and predicted.
For the record I have been predicting GFC2 for 3 years and GFC1 for some time before that.

I dont think QF have access to the RedQ plans either......

but on a serious note, this is not to time (and it hasnt been for years!) to be placing a multibillion dollar bet on a new airline in a market that you do not understand. You dont need to be the RBA chief, the treasurer or a stockbroker to work that out!

 

[medhead]

I'm sorry I didn't realise that both of you had access to the RedQ plans.
As for the economic situation why has the ASX risen today on rumours of a bail out plan for Italy.
Why does Glenn Stevens say our economy is strong.
Why does Wayne Swan keep saying our economy is fine because of China.
I dont think it unusual if economists that QF consults thought the economy was better than it was but since the Italian"crisis" may realise it is not as good as many thought and predicted.
For the record I have been predicting GFC2 for 3 years and GFC1 for some time before that.

I hope you're not holding up Wayne Swan to support your position.

With some of the mutterings going on about raw material demand into China, I feel that they are shakey ground for our economic foundations. (yes I'm not convinced about the future of the china boom)

 

[JohnPhelan]

Well, I for one have not seen the business plan for RedQ, so I cannot make any comment on it.

The only people who can legitimately make informed comment about it are those who have seen the plan.

I never cease to be amazed at the authoritative views expressed on this site by people who have absolutely no factual knowledge of the subject under discussion.

 

[oz_mark]

I think the fact that they they've ordered a fleet but not yet found a country to put them in is a sign the plan is either totally half-coughd or an elaborate decoy. If there's a coherent plan behind it they have done a lousy job of articulating it.

My money would be on "decoy" but I don't think current QF management could actually pull off something that complex. It requires foresight, smart negotiating skills and clever strategy. In the period Alan Joyce has been CEO the share price has tanked, they've lost market share, the employees hate him, Qantas' hard run reputation for safety and quality has taken a hammering and the company has gone consistently backwards by any measure you want to use.

I always found it a bit odd that they could talk about some of the implementation of the new airline in some detail. They could tell you it would be part of onewWorld, that it would be fully integrated with QFF, all sorts of connectivity were sorted. On the other hand, they couldn't say where it was going to be.

Which makes me wonder if they had been negotiating on multiple paths. Probably the best signs we had were that there were many mumblings about a new carrier in Malaysia, but none of the details of that carrier ever lined up with what Qantas were saying.

 

[browski]

It appears the working title for the Red Herring project was Project Darwin.

I always wish these names had more gravitas, more intrigue, more relevance. Something like Project KangaPanda.

 

[wilco]

I never cease to be amazed at the authoritative views expressed on this site by people who have absolutely no factual knowledge of the subject under discussion.

Really?? It seems to me that every opinion expressed on this site is not based on facts but solely on the individuals perspective as they see it.
Sadly, some feel the need to express their opinions more forcefully then others. I have no intention of changing peoples minds or bringing them over to my way of thinking, but I equally dont expect to be bullied and made to feel like im an idiot.

My mother always told me to "not fight with stupid as they will always beat you with their experience". She is a very wise women indeed.

 

[amaroo]

I'm sorry I didn't realise that both of you had access to the RedQ plans.
As for the economic situation why has the ASX risen today on rumours of a bail out plan for Italy.
Why does Glenn Stevens say our economy is strong.
Why does Wayne Swan keep saying our economy is fine because of China.
I dont think it unusual if economists that QF consults thought the economy was better than it was but since the Italian"crisis" may realise it is not as good as many thought and predicted.
For the record I have been predicting GFC2 for 3 years and GFC1 for some time before that.

I was with you right up until I read the words Wayne Swan......then you lost me

 

[777]

The only people who can legitimately make informed comment about it are those who have seen the plan.

I never cease to be amazed at the authoritative views expressed on this site by people who have absolutely no factual knowledge of the subject under discussion.

Option 1: Analyse those facts that are publicly available and subject them to rigorous analysis and interpretation.
Option 2: Ignore the publicly available information and simply assume that Alan Joyce knows what he doing.

Can i suggest that option 2 is the one that strains credibility here?

 

[777]

For the record I have been predicting GFC2 for 3 years and GFC1 for some time before that.

Pretty much everyone has. Yet you simultaneously argue:

since the time RedQ was first announced there has been an appreciable change in the ecxonomic news out of Europe not to mention China.I think it is quite prudent to consider those facts

So you're saying that a coming downturn in the world economy was obvious but that you could hardly expect Alan Joyce to have factored it in?

I am actually interested in your answer to the direct question i asked above. There may well be a perfectly good alternative explanation but i genuinely can't think of it.

 

[el_rooto]

My understanding of what the plans were for QF asia was that they could have the kangaroo route full service stuff done with a cheaper cost base than the ex Australia stuff. This was to be done using widebodied aircraft. The A320 NEO deliveries are so far away that it will probably change several times which part of the QF group they go to.

Maybe the QF asia idea is being dumped for some kind of JV with MAS?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Well, I for one have not seen the business plan for RedQ, so I cannot make any comment on it.

The only people who can legitimately make informed comment about it are those who have seen the plan.

I never cease to be amazed at the authoritative views expressed on this site by people who have absolutely no factual knowledge of the subject under discussion.

It'd called commentary!

Market analysts have to work with what they are given. No different from journalists or the ordinary public.

Not everyone is stupid. Some people are able to make informed guesses. Sometimes they get it wrong, sometimes right. But that is all part of a healthy debate and the society we live in.

 

[wilco]

But that is all part of a healthy debate and the society we live in.

So long as you dont disagree with the naz_s that think they own AFF or the senior members that think their opinion is somehow 'more' valid.