The COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Australia has begun

[burmans]

As Pfizer ramps up production and as the US rollout finishes more supply should become available. Say we can't get it to 2 million a week then the Moderna supply ordered should be a big help getting enough doses to vaccinate anyone who wants to be.

Yeah but supply isn’t going to be the problem, it’s getting enough people to actually turn up and getting the vaccine to the right places. Even now 1 million doses are being produced but only half of that (in our best week) into arms.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Both vaccines in use at present in Australia are very safe based on what is currently understood, with very low hospitalisation rates. But equally it is early days yet and so both short-term and long-term adverse reactions are still not all known.

However despite the hype by some both do have adverse reactions. Both have led to people being hospitalised. So taking Pfizer is not a guarantee of not requiring hospitalisation for a vaccine related adverse reaction.

While we do know know from media reports that there has been Pfizer Vaccine related hospitalisations is in Australia, but I am yet to locate any statistics on how many. Though also there have been a lot less Pfizer vaccinations that AZ vaccinations in Australia so far.

Looking at Israel who have had a large Pfizer rollout we see:

Few complaints ended in hospitalization — an average of 17 patients per million after the first shot, and three patients per million after the second shot. Yehezkeli said doctors expected a few patients to have significant side effects, and he has personally treated a patient who had partial facial nerve paralysis after her second shot, but said the statistics show that incidence is low. His patient recovered.​

​

It was the first major real-world analysis of side effects, involving many times the numbers involved in Pfizer’s clinical trials. Its findings, which are accurate to January 27, match the expectations held by health organizations around the globe on the basis of trial data.​

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17 per million hospitalisations for Pfizer seems very comparable to the Australian rate for AZ.

However I do note that the ATAGI in Australia has recently stated:

Side effects to the Comirnaty vaccine continue to be reported to the TGA and are consistent with what has been observed internationally. This week, describe the reporting of diarrhoea and vomiting as a suspected side effect of the Comirnaty vaccine.​

​

Also while AZ has concern with blood clots Pfizer has its own adverse reactions, as well as adversereactions in common with AZ:

C.D.C. Is Investigating a Heart Problem in a Few Young Vaccine Recipients

The agency is reviewing several dozen reports that teenagers and young adults may have developed myocarditis after vaccination, officials said. But the agency has not determined whether the vaccine caused the condition.

www.nytimes.com

​

Israel examines myocarditis linked to Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine

Israel is examining a small number of cases related to myocarditis in individuals inoculated with Pfizer and BioNtech’s Covid-19 vaccine.

www.pharmaceutical-technology.com

​

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Or​

​

PRAC recommended adding a new side effect to Pfizer’s product information for people with dermal fillers, which are soft, gel-like substances injected under the skin. The committee now believes there’s “at least a reasonable possibility” the vaccine causes facial swelling in people with the fillers.​

 

[Flying mermaid]

Yeah but supply isn’t going to be the problem, it’s getting enough people to actually turn up and getting the vaccine to the right places. Even now 1 million doses are being produced but only half of that (in our best week) into arms.

That’s because they keep half in reserve for second doses. When second doses start next month then we should (hopefully) get into the million per week.

 

[burmans]

That’s because they keep half in reserve for second doses. When second doses start next month then we should (hopefully) get into the million per week.

Without much better messaging I find it hard to believe we can sustain even 1 million for longer than a short period. Recent increases are largely due to new clinics coming on but hard to see what will cause the next step change in uptake and going from 500k to 2m is not just a step change. Sure at the moment there is some residual demand to satisfy but longer term we need everything to come right to quadruple uptake and let’s not forget to date every single prediction about vaccine uptake has not been met.

We’d need
- 4 times as much supply (consistently)
- 4 times delivery capability
- 4 times logistics capability (and remember for Q4 we are talking Pfizer)
- 4 times as many people to actually turn up

Each of these are proving challenging now, expecting all the ducks to fall into line requires a lot more than just a step change in what we are doing now! All that’s been talked about so far is the first point and we have seen no plan on how to achieve the others.

 

[Lynda2475]

The feds keep half doses received in reserve, the GPs and states are supposed to use all they receive not keep back an additional 50% for second doses.

The main reason not all the AZ doses are being used is because there is a lot more hesitancy towards taking AZ, so not everyone who is eligible is rushing to get it.

Plus there has been several cases of wastage through incorrect storage.

Once we start receiving sufficient Pfizer supplies we need more mass vac locations and serious consideration also needs to be given to workplace (like they do with flu vax) and highschool programs. The bulk of the population is working age or below.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Australia's chief vaccine safety body backs AstraZeneca jab for patients with history of blood clots​

By Stuart Marsh • Senior Producer
8:40pm May 23, 2021

Australia's chief vaccine safety body backs AstraZeneca jab for patients with history of blood clots

www.9news.com.au

Australia's chief vaccine safety body has issued new advice affirming the safety of the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine for people with a history of many blood clotting disorders.

But the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation also added two specific conditions to the list of health issues that should trigger a preference for the Pfizer vaccine.

In a joint statement released on Sunday, ATAGI and the Thrombosis and Haemostasis society of Australia and New Zealand (THANZ) said there were "no known markers for increased risk" from the vaccine.

Specifically, Australians who have a family history of blood clots or incidences of deep vein thrombosis do not have a higher chance of vaccine-induced thrombotic thrombocytopenia – or TTS – occurring after receiving an AstraZeneca dose.

"TTS is a rare condition with a different mechanism to most other causes of thrombosis and/or thrombocytopenia," ATAGI said in a statement.

A full list of the TGA's latest advice

The following groups of people can receive COVID-19 vaccine AstraZeneca:​

• People with a past history of venous thromboembolism in typical sites, such as deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism
• People with a predisposition to form blood clots, such as those with Factor V Leiden, or other non-immune thrombophilic disorders
• People with a family history of clots or clotting conditions
• People currently receiving anticoagulant medications
• People with a history of ischaemic heart disease or cerebrovascular accident
• People with a current or past history of thrombocytopenia.

Pfizer is preferred for anyone with:​

• A past history of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST)
• A past history of heparin-induced thrombocytopenia (HIT)
• A past history of idiopathic splanchnic (mesenteric, portal and splenic) venous thrombosis
• Anti-phospholipid syndrome with thrombosis
• People with contraindications to COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Two million Pfizer doses to arrive every week from October: Government's new pledge​

Every Australian could have access to the Pfizer vaccine by Christmas, as the federal government unveils a massive boost to the country's beleaguered COVID-19 vaccine rollout.

The government is promising two million doses of the Pfizer shot every week from October.

From the end of June, 4.5 million doses will be available, rising to seven million in the following quarter, says Health Minister Greg Hunt.

Two million Pfizer doses to arrive every week from October

Every Australian could have access to the Pfizer vaccine by Christmas, as the federal government unveils a ...

www.9news.com.au

Government promises 2m Pfizer doses a week from October

The new details about Pfizer supply should reassure over-50s who are concerned about the AstraZeneca jab.

www.smh.com.au

Mr Hunt was criticised last week for assuring over-50s that “as supply increases later on in the year, there will be enough mRNA vaccines for every Australian”, because that cohort is being encouraged to get their AstraZeneca (non-mRNA) jab now.

Mr Hunt told The Sun-Herald and The Sunday Age: “People should not wait. The medical advice is unequivocal, we want as many Australians over 70 and over 50 to be vaccinated as soon as possible and as other age groups open up, for each of them to be vaccinated as soon as possible.”

 

[Flying mermaid]

Without much better messaging I find it hard to believe we can sustain even 1 million for longer than a short period. Recent increases are largely due to new clinics coming on but hard to see what will cause the next step change in uptake and going from 500k to 2m is not just a step change. Sure at the moment there is some residual demand to satisfy but longer term we need everything to come right to quadruple uptake and let’s not forget to date every single prediction about vaccine uptake has not been met.

We’d need
- 4 times as much supply (consistently)
- 4 times delivery capability
- 4 times logistics capability (and remember for Q4 we are talking Pfizer)
- 4 times as many people to actually turn up

Each of these are proving challenging now, expecting all the ducks to fall into line requires a lot more than just a step change in what we are doing now! All that’s been talked about so far is the first point and we have seen no plan on how to achieve the others.

I think the last point - people turning up - is where the real challenge is. It’s why we need some carrot/stick approach. I can see maybe 50% of people coming forward for vaccination without it it. I think there are a lot of people who intend getting vaccinated but haven’t seen any need to rush, but it’s the next level that is the challenge.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I think the last point - people turning up - is where the real challenge is. It’s why we need some carrot/stick approach. I can see maybe 50% of people coming forward for vaccination without it it. I think there are a lot of people who intend getting vaccinated but haven’t seen any need to rush, but it’s the next level that is the challenge.

Yes there is a lot of vaccine hesitancy, and it is not just the over 50's, and it is not just on AZ either.

I chat with various people in my day to day activities and the vaccine shy are people of all ages. With many of the younger ones it tends to be that they just see no need, that there are so few cases etc etc..

Older hesitant people tend to be fearful or distrustful of the Vaccines and not just AZ.

My daughters have told me that a some of their female friends have indicated they are concerned about possible negative impacts on their future fertility (The science says no a problem, but it remains a strong perceived issue for some).

 

[Lynda2475]

there is a lot of vaccine hesitancy, and it is not just the over 50's, and it is not just on AZ either

But the under 50s (nearly 70% of the population) currently aren't for the most part eligible to get a vaccine, so banging on about going to get vaccinated is wasted energy until there is Pfizer available for them, and it wont start arriving at decent volumes before October.

There are huge numbers of 40-49s already on the stand by lists for Pfizer - there is significant demand, but no ability for the states to fulfil that yet.

Assuming that younger people wont show up is premature,

 

[Flying mermaid]

Yes there is a lot of vaccine hesitancy, and it is not just the over 50's, and it is not just on AZ either.

I chat with various people in my day to day activities and the vaccine shy are people of all ages. With many of the younger ones it tends to be that they just see no need, that there are so few cases etc etc..

Older hesitant people tend to be fearful or distrustful of the Vaccines and not just AZ.

My daughters have told me that a some of their female friends have indicated they are concerned about possible negative impacts on their future fertility (The science says no a problem, but it remains a strong perceived issue for some).

There has been nonsense about fertility circulating on social media - started (where else) in the USA. Hard to correct really.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

 

[lovetravellingoz]

COVID-19 vaccine rollout extends to teenagers in regional South Australia​

Teenagers to get access to COVID-19 vaccines in regional SA

From Tuesday, anyone over the age of 16 living in country South Australia will be able to get a COVID-19 vaccine.

www.abc.net.au

While I welcome any speeding up of the vaccination program, it does seem a little odd to prioritise a lower risk group in doing so.

Though having said that distance is a barrier and so perhaps SA sees it has prudent to service the rural area in a rollout now.

 

[Flying mermaid]

COVID-19 vaccine rollout extends to teenagers in regional South Australia​

Teenagers to get access to COVID-19 vaccines in regional SA

From Tuesday, anyone over the age of 16 living in country South Australia will be able to get a COVID-19 vaccine.

www.abc.net.au

While I welcome any speeding up of the vaccination program, it does seem a little odd to prioritise a lower risk group in doing so.

Though having said that distance is a barrier and so perhaps SA sees it has prudent to service the rural area in a rollout now.

Perhaps to help protect the indigenous population?

 

[dajop]

There has been nonsense about fertility circulating on social media - started (where else) in the USA. Hard to correct really.

I did see a prominent high rating faux-news commentator in the US who jumped onto the bandwagon too, making the bridge from a side effect of vaccination being heavier than usual menstruation to fertility problems. I think he even referred to a social media comment from a female expert in the area of fertility who had noted that it had exacerbated her usual period, but the editors and the presenter chose not to show the rest of the quote in which the expert suggested it would have no long term impact on fertility. Selective editing can always skew what people, even experts have to say, to support ratings and stoke fear and division in the community. They are very careful never to state anything specific, leaving it entirely up to inference.

 

[Lynda2475]

Prof Kelly confirmed in his presser "At the moment we know there is some hesitancy, particularly in the 50-69 year age group."

Also from ABC:

Victorian health authorities say there is 'no change' to vaccine eligibility​

There have been some media reports that Victorian health authorities are about to expand vaccine eligibility in Melbourne's north in the wake of the two likely cases.

We asked the Department of Health if that was correct and here's what they told us:

"This is not correct. There is no change to eligibility.

"Victoria’s focus is on priority population groups eligible under the Commonwealth’s COVID-19 vaccination program. The Department is regularly exploring options for new vaccination centre locations and has previously said that further locations will open."

Post automatically merged: May 24, 2021

 

[burmans]

But the under 50s (nearly 70% of the population) currently aren't for the most part eligible to get a vaccine, so banging on about going to get vaccinated is wasted energy until there is Pfizer available for them, and it wont start arriving at decent volumes before October.

There are huge numbers of 40-49s already on the stand by lists for Pfizer - there is significant demand, but no ability for the states to fulfil that yet.

Assuming that younger people wont show up is premature,

It may be premature but you cant make the claim we will vaccinate everyone by Xmas if you have a reasonable knowledge that people wont turn up. And its not just an assumption either, pre the recent news on AZ it was the younger generations who had demonstrated in multiple surveys they were most likely not to see the need for a vaccine, what's changed?.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

It may be premature but you cant make the claim we will vaccinate everyone by Xmas if you have a reasonable knowledge that people wont turn up. And its not just an assumption either, pre the recent news on AZ it was the younger generations who had demonstrated in multiple surveys they were most likely not to see the need for a vaccine, what's changed?.

The reason that the 50-69 years are showing up for vaccine hesitancy at present is that they are the main group that are currently eligible to be vaccinated.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

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[lovetravellingoz]

One snippet from Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly today

"And the key issue there is do not use the type of medicine we usually use for clots which is called Heparin, because that can make things worse." ​

While I knew about Heparin, I had not thought through that people who developed clotting due to AZ may have received Heparin, thus exacerbating their condition.

So one wonders how many of the blood clotting deaths may have resulted from this. And conversely now that is known with different treatments now used, that both the death rate, and ICU rate, may substantially reduce or even become zero.