The demise of Qantas international flights

[wenglock.mok]

I cannot see QF51/QF52 BNE-SIN and vv remaining a daily service for very long.

Perhaps flying at a bad time but the load earlier this week was extremely poor.

I flew on the same flights at the end of June, and just over this weekend and they were chockers. In fact, I scored an op-up from W to J on the QF52 to BNE (after thinking about volunteering myself off to fly direct to SYD on BA W).

 

[JohnK]

JohnK, what do you define as 'poor'?

150, 100, 50 or 30 pax? What was your estimate of pax in each class?

Economy looked to be ~60% load. I am not sure about business class but did not look that full.

In contrast QF006 last night was full.

 

[AWA2602]

If these services had actually made any money I doubt that they would've scrapped them. QF's international problems come mainly from the Dreamliner delays and the fact that the A380 arrived during the worst parts of the GFC and the unions who impose unrealistic restrictions on QF. I think for baby steps we might see QF operate PER-DXB-BER on an A330 once the new cabins are fitted. This would probably produce a fair chunk of change for QF through EK and a lot of AUS-GER traffic. I also think you'll see a lot of Asian expansion if/when they get the B787. Also AJ has been quoted many a time saying that if the French would give QF daily to CDG they would move quickly to start a service. I think operating a SYD-DXB-CDG service (that connects with the MEL service in DXB) would be a winner. Or here is a spanner, what if they extended the 388 service from HKG on to CDG? O and D traffic? A380 on the route (the only one I believe)

OH YES!!! SYD-HKG-CDG on an A380 all the way gets a massive THUMBS UP from me. It'd be nice not having to go to London only to back-track to the mainland by Eurostar or connect in DXB from QF A380 to EK's mixed bag of B777 and A380 services (am I the only person who doesn't like EK J?)

 

[dajop]

. It'd be nice not having to go to London only to back-track to the mainland by Eurostar or connect in DXB from QF A380 to EK's mixed bag of B777 and A380 services (am I the only person who doesn't like EK J?)

You don't have to do either LHR or DXB, unless your employer forces you to fly QF. There are other choices, both in OW and outside OW. Not picking on you, as probably just a throwaway comment, but for a curious reason this have to phrase is mentioned at lot in relation to QF.

 

[Pollywaffle]

Out of curiosity, last week I looked at the route map at the back of the Qantas on-board magazine. There were very few red lines (for QF flights) heading out of Australia when compared with the number of green lines (codeshare flights). It was quite a surprise to see how few "real" QF international flights are left.

 

[markis10]

Economy looked to be ~60% load. I am not sure about business class but did not look that full.

In contrast QF006 last night was full.

QF52 has been full with zero buckets across the board last Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

 

[Mattg]

Out of curiosity, last week I looked at the route map at the back of the Qantas on-board magazine. There were very few red lines (for QF flights) heading out of Australia when compared with the number of green lines (codeshare flights). It was quite a surprise to see how few "real" QF international flights are left.

Agreed, it is quite disappointing to see so much green, compared to so little red, especially on the Europe map, which has only one red line

 

[dk4]

You don't have to do either LHR or DXB ... There are other choices, .... in OW ...

To take your comment off track for a moment, I think that this outlines why Qantas will leave oneworld within the next few years.

As an alliance, I reckon that it is becoming increasingly inconvenient for Qantas to have some of its major competitors leverage business from QF's own customer database, via oneworld.

Sure, at the moment, it gets some revenue from oneworld airline competitors having to buy points and status credits from QFF for customers they poach, but over the next few years I imagine that Qantas management will want more of the pie from its "own customers" that it "shares" with other carriers. That probably equates to a future with strategic revenue sharing partnerships only. (So, CX, MH, BA, QR... likely need to be sidelined with a "direct sweep" style approach from QFF, by it exiting oneworld.)

And in a future where QF retracts to a mostly domestic metal operator, it may also decide that having to buy points/miles from oneworld airlines, that it doesn't have revenue sharing agreements with, isn't necessary to get the foreign visitor volume which it has, because of the "competitive" nature of our domestic market, with just two major airline groups.

 

[madrooster]

And in a future where QF retracts to a mostly domestic metal operator, it may also decide that having to buy points/miles from oneworld airlines, that it doesn't have revenue sharing agreements with, isn't necessary to get the foreign visitor volume which it has, because of the "competitive" nature of our domestic market, with just two major airline groups.

QF would need to play this card very carefully, given that VA is freely able to join *A or ST. If VA was to join *A or ST it would put QF in a precarious position by not being in an alliance.

 

[Paddy55]

To take your comment off track for a moment, I think that this outlines why Qantas will leave oneworld within the next few years.

You seem very certain of this? Why?

I can't see it myself... but that's just my opinion

 

[JohnK]

To take your comment off track for a moment, I think that this outlines why Qantas will leave oneworld within the next few years.

Are you talking about the end of the airline?

I do not believe Qantas can survive with just the Emirates alliance.

 

[Supersonic Swinger]

Are you talking about the end of the airline?

I do not believe Qantas can survive with just the Emirates alliance.

The airline alliances are becoming yesterday's thing - FFs may not want to accept this given their deep attachments to 'their' alliance, but this is how a lot of airline execs now feel. Deep bilateral relationships seem to be where a lot of airline management teams are putting their focus. In QF's case, they already have their EK tie-up to cover Europe and northern Africa, as well as JV's with AA for North America and LAN for South America. If they were to say tie up with China Eastern for North Asia, South African Airways for southern Africa, they'd have a virtual alliance much like Virgin Australia, Etihad, Alaska Airlines etc are developing, and OW membership would be a pro forma thing (if it isn't already)....

 

[Isochronous]

Oneworld is the key reason why I use the QFF programme. Without oneworld I would lose access to benefits on CX and AY in particular. I would focus my effort on another oneworld programme. QF would be very stupid to leave.

 

[airbound]

oneworld also presumably drives some traffic to QF domestic.

I wouldn't like to see them leave.

 

[JohnK]

Oneworld Alliance is one of the key reasons a lot of people use the QFF program.

 

[samh004]

The airline alliances are becoming yesterday's thing - FFs may not want to accept this given their deep attachments to 'their' alliance, but this is how a lot of airline execs now feel. Deep bilateral relationships seem to be where a lot of airline management teams are putting their focus. In QF's case, they already have their EK tie-up to cover Europe and northern Africa, as well as JV's with AA for North America and LAN for South America. If they were to say tie up with China Eastern for North Asia, South African Airways for southern Africa, they'd have a virtual alliance much like Virgin Australia, Etihad, Alaska Airlines etc are developing, and OW membership would be a pro forma thing (if it isn't already)....

The real question before they do or don't do that is how much does OneWorld cost them, or how much does it make them. I could understand if there was no value from it, but I think there must be.

 

[dajop]

QF would need to play this card very carefully, given that VA is freely able to join *A or ST. If VA was to join *A or ST it would put QF in a precarious position by not being in an alliance.

Or if QF left OW, they could even join oneworld.... now imagine that.

But the question around OW membership is sensible to pose. If you look at core partners that QF cooperate with - they really span the three alliances and the non aligned - AA within the US/North America, Emirates to/from Europe & Northern Africa (with token support for AY), China Southern in North Asia, SA to/from/within southern Africa, LAN to/from/within South America and Jetstar Asia for SE Asia. MH, CX seem to be enemies, and BA almost does too these days. QR surely would be more like CX & MH - competing with QF & EK. RJ, AB, IB, S7 (and UL) seem almost irrelevant, and lastly I can't work out if JL is friend or foe.

 

[dk4]

Oneworld is the key reason why I use the QFF programme. Without oneworld I would lose access to benefits on CX and AY in particular. I would focus my effort on another oneworld programme.

I imagine that QF would somehow make it difficult for you to jump ship, and easier to stay the path, with whatever they provide for you instead.

Qantas management has had a great deal of success with the "you're with us, or you're against us" strategy. We saw it applied with credit card direct sweep, and Qantas customers did the right thing. We saw it with the removal of "anytime access" and Qantas customer fell into line. And it just makes sense that they would expect to see the same effect again, if they stop giving their oneworld competitors a free kick (once QF has their full gamut of strategic partnerships in place).

I don't deny from a customer perspective that alliances are nice, but from an airline's point of view, strategic partnerships will probably make them more money.

 

[Supersonic Swinger]

The real question before they do or don't do that is how much does OneWorld cost them, or how much does it make them. I could understand if there was no value from it, but I think there must be.

Financially, the equation would probably be:

Annual membership costs + Payments for points and lounge access to non-JV members
Less receipts for points and lounge access from non-JV members (which probably would have to include some halo effect for people choosing QF primarily for the ability to earn/burn on non-JV OW members).

Once it becomes positive, there'd be little value for the business, regardless of what individual FF members get.

 

[zachary.august]

Personally I think CX has always been a lost opertunity for QF. I mean imagine taking one of the QF daily flights into HKG and then onto Asia. But in regards to OW membership I think that they still have some need for it. Ticketing onto OW services is a big one plus inter Europe travel is still needed.