To take your comment off track for a moment, I think that this outlines why Qantas will leave oneworld within the next few years.
As an alliance, I reckon that it is becoming increasingly inconvenient for Qantas to have some of its major competitors leverage business from QF's own customer database, via oneworld.
This is an overstatement. Since day 1 of QF's participating in oneworld, QF has not stopped to be the partner who plays outside the alliance. Alitalia, Air France, SAS to name a few of QF's encounters outside the alliance. If QF is happy to share its customer database with those other alliance members, what is the problem of QF share them with oneworld members? And, why should QF have access to BA, CX, MH's customer database without contribution to others? Alliance requires multi-trusts among members. It is riciporical in terms of share customers. That is what alliance for.
Sure, at the moment, it gets some revenue from oneworld airline competitors having to buy points and status credits from QFF for customers they poach, but over the next few years I imagine that Qantas management will want more of the pie from its "own customers" that it "shares" with other carriers. That probably equates to a future with strategic revenue sharing partnerships only. (So, CX, MH, BA, QR... likely need to be sidelined with a "direct sweep" style approach from QFF, by it exiting oneworld.)
Alliance is not only about earn, burn and turn (here the turn refers to members show up in the lounge). The most important aspects about alliance, is to create a virtual airline that covers most of the more desired geography areas which could not be done previously due to regulatory hurdle. This virtual airline does not need to own the aircraft or run its own business, but require the members buy into the promotional activities around the globe and provide standandrised service. Strategic revenue sharing partnership could not replace alliance. You have to realise flying public is a limited source for airlines. Although there are new people flying daily, overall, the size of the pool is not unlimited. A great point of alliance is that the bigger alliance is, the more potential customers are. A strategic revenue sharing partnership will not enlarge customer base, rather it would require airlines like Qantas to give up existing rights. Qantas, will undoubtly loosing customers to Emirates. Once the strategic relationship end, either EK wants to pull a plug or QF is tired, or it has grown too big that regulatory wants it to end, or any other unexpected circumstances kicked in, QF will loose out since QF could not serve all the routes it previously served through EK. Passengers who find Emirates provide their needs will abandon QF.
Here we are also talking about two types of customers. One is FIT, those travel for leisure or family reasons. Business people travel on non-contracted fares as well. Another is contracted flyers, those who hold contracts with airlines. Alliance is particularly good for these contracted corporation customers. A strategic revenue sharing partnership could not provide these customers a global presence as alliance could. And these lucrative contracts, are far more important than the majority of Emirates customers: the ME labours and occasionally travellers.
The biggest flaw with the strategic revenue sharing partnership is, Qantas is selling its customer base to Emirates in exchange of such contract. Qantas has contributed almost nil to Emirates's network. This relationship is not equal. While Qantas have equal say in oneworld, it is dominated by Emirates in this relationship. It has everything to loose when married Emirates, but emirates has nothing to loose...
And in a future where QF retracts to a mostly domestic metal operator, it may also decide that having to buy points/miles from oneworld airlines, that it doesn't have revenue sharing agreements with, isn't necessary to get the foreign visitor volume which it has, because of the "competitive" nature of our domestic market, with just two major airline groups.
If Qantas is to become a domestic airline, it could still have bargaining power. Its position in oneworld would not change because of alliance membership. In fact, Qantas could do more codeshare with oneworld members. Without its high cost crew base, Qantas could earn multiple income from selling codeshare seats to customers than flying themselves. Qantas also get revenue from around the world products. If Qantas is to quite oneworld today, its frequent flyer business will be worthless. The AUD$2 billion price tag will evaporate instantly with status match offers from VA, SQ, CX, EK etc.
Last, what you call revenue sharing agreements already exist in airline business as codeshare and joint venture. Both are well practised in alliance business.
