The totally off-topic thread

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So our whole economy survives on a lie?

A company floats today and 1,000,000 shares are issued at $1/share. I buy 10,000 shares.

Tomorrow 10,000 shares are sold at $2/share so now the company is valued at $2,000,000 without doing anything? Can anyone cash out at this point and where is the money coming from?

The next day 20,000 shares are sold at $3/share so now the company is valued at $3,000,000 again without doing anything?

The day after 30,000 shares are sold at $5/share so now the company is valued at $5,000,000 again without doing anything?

So this goes on and on and no one knows how much the company is actually worth. I think I have $50,000 worth of shares but I don't.

Then the Greek crisis hits and 50,000 shares are sold at 50c/share.

Now I have only $5,000 value in shares. Where has my $45,000 gone?

I know this is a simplistic approach but I cannot believe this is what makes the world go around. People placing their future retirement income on imaginary money. Stupidity.


Quick, pack up all your belongings and flee! (Using FF points of course)

You have lifted the veil on modern finance.

The disconnect between theory and reality.

AKA Right in theory broke in practice.

... back to the "pack your..." - you are a 'clear & present danger' to the stability of Australia and the world. People in black SUVs will see you shortly.

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Test your memory, think back to 1998 & 1999.

The "New economy" was where the future lay. Old fashioned companies like miners and industrial companies (such as banks for example) were the trash of tomorrow. One of the top brokers wrote a treatise on "What to do with the old age pensioners in your portfolio - past their prime, no use to anyone and embarrassing to admit you still own."

18 months later it was a different story.

Or in the late 80s and early 90s - the media was full of (and so were many global brokers) the "Japanese Century". Turns out it only lasted 6 years.

Certain political parties were clamouring for Japanese to be compulsory in Australian schools. Twenty years on and we have similar claims for learning Chinese and coding (old economy parlance = computer programming).

In 1989 Tokyo property was valued at more than the value of all property in mainland USA.

You said it; "Madness". Japan introduced 100 year home mortgages - buy your house today so your grandchildren can have a home nearly paid for.
 
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So our whole economy survives on a lie?

So this goes on and on and no one knows how much the company is actually worth.

Good JohnK, you're catching on quickly.............although many would start babbling on about intangible assets/ goodwill etc when you say that values change "without the company doing anything" :p

I'm no Plato or Confucius but here goes...... Truth is anything and everything is routinely given a value, not just stock market companies - your house, your car etc. but those values mean very little because it's just a concept in our heads. Even the money that we routinely value houses, cars and shares in changes all the time and only has the value that someone is prepared to exchange it for TODAY. Then, if you really want to screw with your head, you could debate why the $AUD is worth US75 cents TODAY when not long ago it got as high as $US1.10.........but, then again, what value IS a $1 US ??????????????? You see, even the thing we use to measure "value" in itself only has a subjective value, and therefore introduces a whole new level of uncertainty into the equation itself.

Consider that your car might have been worth $50K new but it's 2 years old and is now "valued" at $10K (unfortunately you bought a Commodore in this example) only because that's what Joe Blow with give you for it. Well you might ask "Where did my other $40K go?" Clue: It's with the $20B wiped off the market yesterday!

If you can't find Joe Blow then your Commodore is worth nothing..........but if you find a rich idiot they might pay you $200K. Something's value TODAY is only what someone will pay you for it NOW, TODAY.

So the share market is not unique - it's just that "$20 Billion wiped off shares" gets people's attention. Just be thankful your retirement income is not dependent on holding Greek bonds - that really is imaginary money. ;)
 
The Shanghai index has risen way too rapidly and is now correcting. But have the fundamentals underpinning the economy changed likewise?
 
Slowly ?
Implosion is imminent

Nah, just being manipulated ATM. If you want see an implosion in China just wait till the US revalues its currency in a couple of years time to wipe out the value of its debt - just like the Germans did after WWII to make the cost of their reparations disappear.
 
So this goes on and on and no one knows how much the company is actually worth. I think I have $50,000 worth of shares but I don't.
Then the Greek crisis hits and 50,000 shares are sold at 50c/share.
Now I have only $5,000 value in shares. Where has my $45,000 gone?
I know this is a simplistic approach but I cannot believe this is what makes the world go around. People placing their future retirement income on imaginary money. Stupidity.

A share price is simply a value placed on it - if someone is prepared to pay $x for a share, every other shareholder thinks their shares are worth the same $x. It's like house prices. A house up the street sold last week for $2.5 million. Now everyone in the street with similar houses thinks their property is worth $2.5million. THINKS. But unless they find a buyer who's prepared to pay them $2.5 million, their house only has a book value.
And if everyone in the street tries to sell their house at the same time, the price will certainly crash.

You must be too young to remember Poseidon Nickel. It started at something like 80c a share then then progressively skyrocketed to over $250 before crashing out in the late 60s early 70s. I remember a company rep coming to visit my father who was a veterinarian working in a country town. He told my father "Look, there's this sure thing - it's called Poseidon - it's going to go crazy. It's only $5 share at the moment you need to buy up big". My father who'd arrived from Europe post-war with nothing but the clothes on his back demurred, saying it was too much like gambling!

About three-six months later, the company rep turned up in a brand-new Mercedes to say goodbye (and introduce the new company rep). He'd been smart and not greedy. He bought up big at $5, sold some at $50 (and so was ahead already), sold another parcel at $100, another at $150 and finally the rest at $200 (he said he chickened out at $200!). The shares had kept climbing but I remember as a little kid the rep saying you don't want to be greedy. He retired and moved north to some sleepy country town up north by the sea called Noosa Heads. He rang my dad...... but that's another story.
 
My Aunt worked at Poseidon. Senior Admin role. An interesting ride indeed.
 
A company rebranded itself and trades as Poseidon think twiggy is or was involved a few years ago
 
A company rebranded itself and trades as Poseidon think twiggy is or was involved a few years ago

A company exists as Poseidon Nickel Limited | Australia's New Nickel

Interestingly, from the wiki page on the Poseidon bubble "In the late 1980s, Robert Champion de Crespigny took over the Poseidon Company and it became part of Normandy Mining, the largest gold miner in Australia."

A relative of QF32's Richard Champion De Crespigny, I wonder?


 
Wasn't it Anaconda where he made and nearly loss it all on Nickel ?

That rings a bell, the company went through quite a few names before they got to Poseidon

I have to declare I am a share holder for about 15 years +
 
A company exists as Poseidon Nickel Limited | Australia's New Nickel

Interestingly, from the wiki page on the Poseidon bubble "In the late 1980s, Robert Champion de Crespigny took over the Poseidon Company and it became part of Normandy Mining, the largest gold miner in Australia."

A relative of QF32's Richard Champion De Crespigny, I wonder?



We knew the family. Our kids went through school together. Very prominent in South Australia - Adelaide set and all that.
 
We knew the family. Our kids went through school together. Very prominent in South Australia - Adelaide set and all that.

Did your children attend the school which rivaled the boys in the "dark shade of pink" blazers?
 
Did your children attend the school which rivaled the boys in the "dark shade of pink" blazers?

They went through Primary School together and that also had navy blue blazers. But I know of two Senior Schools that have navy blue blazers and I had one child at each of th
 
Twiggies old company was ANL. I remember it because my son referred to it as cough in a school share market game.
 
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