Tokyo Haneda slot - how will Virgin Operate it?

[HS-TQE]

CNS-HND would be a blood bath for VA, JQ would undercut them and the JQ787 is a nicer product for that flight

I suspect it's likely this will be 'subsidised' by the Queensland Government, the QAL (Cairns Airport) and the BAC under the Attracting Aviation Investment Fund (AAIF) to 'reduce' the losses where possible, in addition to the NH codeshares (Japanese leisure market from Central Tokyo to North Queensland) and potentially UA codeshares.

Either way, if VA does end up utilising their HND slot, you can guarantee this to be partially subsidised by the Queensland Government (taxpayers) through the AAIF, just as the taxpayers are partially funding UA's BNE-SFO 3x weekly flights to name one example.

 

[pmdg7444]

CNS or DRW - MNL - HND

 

[AustraliaPoochie]

If JQ can do CNS - KIX with a b787, I am sure VA can do similar if it leases an a350.
***
So is Guam still a sovereign US territory, where you need an ESTA just to even transit.
If this is so, it would negate flying VA, even for the points and SC earn.
If they can get 5th freedom via a Aust visa waiver country, it would be ok, even if its a transit/refuel for 3/4 hours.

 

[henrus]

So is Guam still a sovereign US territory, where you need an ESTA just to even transit.

Australian's plus passport holders from Brunei, China, HK, Japan, Malaysia, Nauru, New Zealand, PNG, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, UK don't need an ESTA or visa to enter or transit Guam however if VA was to stop everyone would have to disembark and go through passport control just like they'd be entering the US.

 

[Digicola]

I too would love to see VA at HND but I think we have to recognise that all this is a lot to keep a slot.

If anything I’d hope they can get a wet/dry leased 787 and get widebody ops up and running again. I was supposed to be on the inaugural back in 2020 and still bummed about it. It was sad to walk around HND a few months later and see the check-in signs were there stashed in a corner never to be used.

If we see them come back to long haul international I reckon we’ll end up seeing LAX and eventually DOH.

 

[SydneySwan]

CNS or DRW - MNL - HND

I like the idea of CNS - MNL - HND.

 

[antycbr]

All of this is fascinating but any one-stop option will in my prediction hemorrhage money which seems odd as VA have exhibited strong financial discipline to date. I'd certainly love VA longhaul back myself.

 

[jase05]

All of this is fascinating but any one-stop option will in my prediction hemorrhage money which seems odd as VA have exhibited strong financial discipline to date. I'd certainly love VA longhaul back myself.

I think we can all agree that VA long haul is a fair way of happening if at all.
I just can’t see a one stop journey to HND working under form either

 

[jpp42]

My brief reading of that one is that it just relates to the rights of Japanese and US carriers? (Although I do admit IANAL and may have missed some nuance of the wording).

My quick google suggests that the treaties on this page might be more relevant, particularly the linked treaty with Japan, in that it specifically mentions AU-Guam-Tokyo. However, this is just the AU/JP agreement, will need to find the relevant provision in the AU/US agreement:

http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/other/dfat/treaties/ATS/1956/6.html

Interesting research. I know that Continental (and then United) used to operate GUM-CNS (as part of an island-hopping route), which connected with various other flights in Japan, and was a way to provide a one-stop trip to CNS from various smaller Japanese cities. I guess this was okay under standard agreements because CO/UA are US flag carriers? Could the treaty you mention about AU-Guam-Tokyo be part of the arrangements for that previous CO/UA service?

As far as I know, the last AU-GUM service was in 2015: United to end Cairns-Guam route (this other article explains some of the challenges with it - Guam-Cairns route approaches 17-year mark — Marianas Business Journal )

 

[Scarlett]

Australian's plus passport holders from Brunei, China, HK, Japan, Malaysia, Nauru, New Zealand, PNG, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, UK don't need an ESTA or visa to enter Guam.

Side note on this:
In 2017 when Philippine Airlines (PR) had great J class deals from AUS to other places, via MNL, we flew with them to Guam. I had checked this regulation on both the Guam government sites and on the US ESTA site and it was clear. However, at check-in in SYD the PR agent AND THE SUPERVISOR were adamant we had to have an ESTA and wouldn’t check us in for the first segment SYD-MNL. Fortunately this was when ESTAs could generally be applied for and received within about an hour. Cue mad scrambling for the laptop and iPad as Mrs Scarlett and I applied (and for Mstr Scarlett) for an ESTA and then wore out the F5 button with stress hoping to get the response before check in closed. Even showing the PR staff the relevant websites did nothing: they were ‘computer says no’ drones and appeared they couldn’t care less. Again fortunately, the first ESTA response came through and they proceeded to check us in about 5 minutes before closing the check in desks (they never sighted the other two ESTAs… ).

Follow up email after the fact sent to PR office in Australia, as well as their SYD address, listing why they were wrong and requesting an apology for the unnecessary stress (and token additional expense) they caused. As well as hoping they’d not inflict the same on future pax. Response or acknowledgment never received.

***
So is Guam still a sovereign US territory, where you need an ESTA just to even transit.

It is effectively governed by the US, but as an ‘unincorporated’ territory it is not the same as a US State or other federal territory.

 

[Must...Fly!]

I think we can all agree that VA long haul is a fair way of happening if at all.
I just can’t see a one stop journey to HND working under form either

On their own metal, absolutely. Under a lease arrangement, I think the case could be made.


All this assumes they want to keep the slot and are willing to pay for the privilege, of course, which isn't a given. I do agree with you that a one stop service is a waste of time.

 

[jakeseven7]

I think we can all agree that VA long haul is a fair way of happening if at all.
I just can’t see a one stop journey to HND working under form either

For LCC pricing (they have moved down market after all after the collapse) maybe some people will jump at it? I don't know, I think I'm with you...

But it would have to be pretty sharp pricing.

 

[Sprucegoose]

She didn't say much because we know f all

Yep she could have been channelling skippy..

 

[HS-TQE]

On their own metal, absolutely. Under a lease arrangement, I think the case could be made.


All this assumes they want to keep the slot and are willing to pay for the privilege, of course, which isn't a given. I do agree with you that a one stop service is a waste of time.

Wet-lease will likely depend on IASC permissions for longer than short-term wet leases. I suspect IASC will likely be hesitant on a medium-term wet-lease after the Air Australia bankruptcy fiasco where the wet leased aircraft was seized overseas.

I'll also repeat again, any form of VA using their HND slot will likely be paid/subsidised from our (Queensland) taxes through the AAIF package, just like our taxes are subsidised on numerous other flights on international carriers out of Queensland's Airports.

Annastacia and the airports will likely chip their money in for the 'sake of tourism and competition' in Queensland, especially when VA will likely be competing against JQ's split 4/3 to NRT/KIX out of CNS if VA end up using their 737MAX for the hypothetical daily CNS-HND flights.

 

[pangwen]

I'll also repeat again, any form of VA using their HND slot will likely be paid/subsidised from our (Queensland) taxes through the AAIF package, just like our taxes are subsidised on numerous other flights on international carriers out of Queensland's Airports.

I don't think any form of VA using their HND slot... is correct, that would be the case only if the form of VA using their slot involves starting from a QLD airport.

Obviously most of the discussion on this thread has been about flights ex-BNE or ex-CNS, but some of the posts suggest that they will wet lease a plane. If they were going to do this, other opportunities (e.g. MEL-HND) could be possible? Particularly now that QF has pipped VA to launching a BNE-HND service and there's currently no airlines operating MEL-HND AFAIK, so they may prefer to launch on a route with less competition (JL MEL-NRT notwithstanding) and to a city with greater population.

 

[SnowMum]

I hope they do. I have lost all confidence in Jetstar and the Qantas flight times just don’t work for me.

 

[AIRwin]

I hope they do. I have lost all confidence in Jetstar and the Qantas flight times just don’t work for me.

How come? Welcome to AFF! Irasshaimase!

 

[AustraliaPoochie]

Would VA2 surrender though, if they don't do anything by the "use it or lose it" date in 2023?

 

[HS-TQE]

Would VA2 surrender though, if they don't do anything by the "use it or lose it" date in 2023?

Per quote some posts above.

In July, Virgin have the IASC a confidential submission about how it was going to operate the flight. It is possible that submission covered this off

It's either 'if' VA has something in place by March (the question is in what form, whether it's VAi "Short Haul" from CNS via one of their own 737MAX aircraft, or an 'IASC approved' widebody wet-lease from another operator operating ex-BNE).

If VA doesn't have 'their plan' in place, the authority simply lapses at the end of March and the slot opens for QF or someone else to apply for it for use later in the year.
It's unlikely that VA will 'surrender' this slot before the due date per their recent submission to the IASC.

 

[randompunter]

Side note on this:
In 2017 when Philippine Airlines (PR) had great J class deals from AUS to other places, via MNL, we flew with them to Guam. I had checked this regulation on both the Guam government sites and on the US ESTA site and it was clear. However, at check-in in SYD the PR agent AND THE SUPERVISOR were adamant we had to have an ESTA and wouldn’t check us in for the first segment SYD-MNL. Fortunately this was when ESTAs could generally be applied for and received within about an hour. Cue mad scrambling for the laptop and iPad as Mrs Scarlett and I applied (and for Mstr Scarlett) for an ESTA and then wore out the F5 button with stress hoping to get the response before check in closed. Even showing the PR staff the relevant websites did nothing: they were ‘computer says no’ drones and appeared they couldn’t care less. Again fortunately, the first ESTA response came through and they proceeded to check us in about 5 minutes before closing the check in desks (they never sighted the other two ESTAs… ).

Follow up email after the fact sent to PR office in Australia, as well as their SYD address, listing why they were wrong and requesting an apology for the unnecessary stress (and token additional expense) they caused. As well as hoping they’d not inflict the same on future pax. Response or acknowledgment never received.


It is effectively governed by the US, but as an ‘unincorporated’ territory it is not the same as a US State or other federal territory.

Argh how frustrating when airlines don't care to read the rules - we are ineligible for ESTAs due to travel to Iran and I have previously looked into the Guam requirements too; I recall an ESTA wasn't mandatory for Aus passports but they used wording on the official govt site like "ESTA is recommended". Anyway we never got around to booking that CNS - GUM flight before it was axed. About 10 years ago we did have rellos island hop all the way from SFO to BNE on an award ticket via GUM and CNS in Y. As I recall they were exhausted and their luggage arrived about a week later!

On topic - if VA tried this with 737s via GUM I may be interested but perhaps only for a daytime flight in J. I would guess the return leg would be overnight