UK election 2019

[drron]

I’m reporting what I saw on the news websites I read in the couple of days earlier. There’s no point in discussing it further. I read it and others didn’t. Doesn’t make me wrong.

I read the same articles Pushka.But being a cynic I just felt they were just showing off their lack of expertise.My feeling was they were too swayed by Aussie experience where a 6 point primary lead by the conservative side meant little after preferences.

 

[sjk]

The polls are irrelevant these days.

I guess they are to people who only read media headlines and don’t understand margins of error or how to interpret numbers for themselves.

 

[Pushka]

I read the same articles Pushka.But being a cynic I just felt they were just showing off their lack of expertise.My feeling was they were too swayed by Aussie experience where a 6 point primary lead by the conservative side meant little after preferences.

Thankyou!

Yes. I was cynical too and even commented as such on the news website, but a part of me also said, Please Dear God no! And these days, well, people never thought Trump would get in nor that Brexit would happen. I think the article pointed to a higher number than normal of younger voters deciding they might actually vote and not for Boris.

I wonder what content here I have on ‘ignore.’ Where it will stay.

 

[Hvr]

I guess they are to people who only read media headlines and don’t understand margins of error or how to interpret numbers for themselves.

I only ever did one statistics subject at university and it taught me enough to know that I know very little about them. But I know enough to know that there are a lot of essential requirements to get valid predictions. And that all figures derived from statistics have a standard deviation that must be considered when making forecasts,

 

[CaptJCool]

Nothing beats a real count that confirms polls one way or the other.

The Election Day polling proved very accurate once more

 

[OATEK]

I only ever did one statistics subject at university and it taught me enough to know that I know very little about them. But I know enough to know that there are a lot of essential requirements to get valid predictions. And that all figures derived from statistics have a standard deviation that must be considered when making forecasts,

I did two course at Uni. One introduced me to the book How to Lie with Statistics by Duff. The other course, demographics taught me a key lesson - The Longer you live, the longer you live! Simply put, you life expectancy at birth will be lower than at 70.

 

[RooFlyer]

Just waiting for one final seat - the one where my family hails from, St Ives (which includes the Lizard). Cornwall is mostly Blue on the map. 364 seats, maybe 365, is very close the the Exit Poll - so at least that poll works (where it didn't in the Oz election).

My ancestral 'home' was Aberdeenshire - and most of it voted conservative

I’m reporting what I saw on the news websites I read in the couple of days earlier. There’s no point in discussing it further. I read it and others didn’t. Doesn’t make me wrong.

I saw 'em too, which is why I posted it in #1. And no, I'm not going back to find them and link them - anyone is welcome to naysay it.

 

[RooFlyer]

On the news tonight, violent protests against Boris (ho hum), with obscenities on the signs.

 

[turtlemichael]

On the news tonight, violent protests against Boris (ho hum), with obscenities on the signs.

And that was just the newsreaders.

 

[juddles]

My opinion counts less than zero as I am not really into politics, and my knowledge of specifics of the UK is minimal. But I have always seen the writing on the wall - the fact that the UK never gave up their currency to become euros was, to me, a base level indication of just how far the british people did not want to become dissolved and weakened in a european union. IE they hated the idea.

Again, IMHO, there are some valid concepts in a European alliance in the current world theatre, but I think it should not have been the EU concept. They should work together as a team of strong individuals with similar ideals and desires, not try to morph into some forced consolidated beast of many different flavours.

As is often the case in world politics, trade is a key point. That is perhaps the only thing that is a benefit. But really, the formation of the EU was a great "cough Ba yah" thing when at the time lefty feelings overrode solid reality. It all felt good at the start, and those myriad peoples felt great to hold hands and sing. But in reality it was either stupdity or at least implemented badly.

I think the average voter in the UK is not in love with either of the main parties, but they do still, deep down, reject this averaging/national-identity-killing concept of the EU.

I believe that even though Brexit will be a short term challenge (and a big one), the UK will prosper over time. And rejoice in its freedom and sense of identity. And I think many EU countries (the strong ones) will get every day more and more sick of trying to feel good singing "cough Ba Yah".

 

[Spongbob]

I saw a comment from a LAB voter who switched to CON in 2019: "It was the best worst option in the election"

 

[drron]

All of the previous Parliament's MPs who switched parties and stood again this time lost.Two ex tories even losing their deposits.

All the Defector MPs Lost Their Seats

Research by the BBC's Laurence Sleator has shown that all 18 MPs who defected in the last Parliament then stood again for this one failed in their

order-order.com

 

[OATEK]

The election in the UK has demonstrated once again that democracy is based on the whole body of voters, not the cliques on either side that think they have all the answers. While Corbyn was a huge factor (as Bill was here), the electorates made up their mind on how things affected them directly (just as they did here). You can argue long about whether this is a weakness or strength, but it is the vary heart of rule by the many rather than by the few.

The insecapable conclusion is that many of those MPs who delayed and tried to stop Brexit have been punished - quite a lot of them in so called "remainer" seats (as the list of defectors shows). All Conservative candidates had to sign a pledge that they would vote for Brexit, and have been elected in their droves in remainer electorates. And the decision of the Lib Dems to deny the referendum and seek to cancel Bexit has left them worse off than they were before. The fact that the (coal) mining communities in the North could put aside their visceral hatred of Thatcher's tories that decimated their livelihoods (even though it set the UK on the path to low emissions), to vote for Boris is quite startling.

 

[Bodie]

I think enough voters wanted certainty- Britain has voted to leave- I expect voters wanted to get Brexit done - they might not agree with everything either side promised- but if the Tories overstep - they will be punished at local government or next election.

 

[drron]

Seeing the Tories now have large majority they should be able to see out their 5 year term.

 

[RooFlyer]

How Labour will elect its new leader ( ). From the BBC:

Who can run?

Candidates for leader and deputy leader have to be MPs, and they need nominations from 10% of Labour MPs and MEPs.

And in a new rule, candidates also need nominations from 5% of Labour's constituency parties.

Alternatively, they need nominations from three affiliated bodies, two of which must be trades unions, adding up to 5% of affiliated members.

Who can vote?
Members of the Labour Party, affiliated trades unions (if they opt in), and socialist societies such as the Fabians, all get one vote each.

In 2015, non-members were allowed to register as supporters and vote in the contest for a £3 fee.

Those new registered supporters voted overwhelmingly for Jeremy Corbyn, though he gained enough support from members and affiliates to win anyway.

In 2016, when Owen Smith challenged Jeremy Corbyn, the cost of registering was raised to £25 and people were given only two days to sign up.

The cost and the time period for registering this time will be in the hands of the NEC.

 

[Renato1]

The British election was the same story as the Trump election - the revolt by the majority of the population against the globalist Left and Right elites who have been telling voters that they know better what is good for them. And yes, it was the majority that revolted in the USA as more people voted for Trump and the Libertarian Party, than voted for Hillary and the Greens Party.

For the last three years in Britain, the popular refrain from elitist Remainers was that the people hadn't known what they had voted for in the Brexit referendum orf 2016 - that they had been duped or misinformed, that they didn't know Brexit would result in loss of jobs and numerous deaths from lack of medicines and food. I was surprised to see even Sir Patrick Stewart of StarTrek fame recently addressing a rally to that effect.

The British electorate gave them a thumping - as any self respecting peoples who are told they are dills would.

As for Scotland - it's hilarious. They've voted for the supposed nationalist party who's leader wants to overthrow the yoke of the English in order to be under the bigger yoke of the Germans and French. Given that Border Insecurity is one of the main impetuses behind the rise of Nationaiist Populist politics in the USA. Britain, France, Germany. and Italy - Scotland is the odd entity out, where it's Chief Minister seems to be trying to do a Tony Balir and Angela Merkul, insisting on welcoming tens of thousands of immigrants from third world countries in order to achieve the enrichment of diversity. Given the reaction of populations in the other countries, it will be interesting to see how that globalist progressive stance that plays out long term in Scotland.
Regards.
Renato

 

[serfty]

I read the same articles @Pushka.But being a cynic I just felt they were just showing off their lack of expertise.

I too saw the same articles, but I knew what they were reporting in headline was incorrect due to the comprehensive compilation of polls in the wikipedia page I had been absorbing of the last weeks. (relinked to below)

My cynicism had me considering either the reporting was deliberately misleading to sensationalise or those reporting were hoping for a different result and subconsciously misinterpreting those polls.

Opinion polling for the 2019 United Kingdom general election - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[serfty]

the revolt by the majority of the population against the globalist Left and Right elites who have been telling voters that they know better what is good for them.

This is incorrect; 45.3% voted for Conservatives and The Brexit party, 46.4% voted for Labour, Lib Dems and the greens.

The most important part (with first past the post voting) was that 43.5% voted Conservative and the next best was Labour with 32.1%.

 

[CaptJCool]

Labor leavers demanded democracy be respected and since Labor didn’t - remember the Bowen moment...

Con remainers expected democracy to be respected even though they didn’t win and so had no cause to leave the Cons

Boris, vaudeville performer,

Two things in UK
Council tenants in London were given the opportunity to buy their council homes so did and are now millionaires!

This has created a private landlord system so as soon as you are stuck financially, out you go, there’s no renters insurance to cover loss of income. And this doesn’t make a fairer society. Public housing costs lots of cash and govts can’t raise the taxes high enough when the middle class are already overextended on income and VAT taxes.

Thatcher, like Howard (3 million ABNs vast majority self-employed) created right wing voters out of staunch labor voters. People want a handup but no longer expect to “rely upon anyone”.

They want a patriotic country with wealth creation and social justice. Get Brexit done reasonates as much as “Proud to be British”