UK - in or out of the EU? Travel Issues?

[Pushka]

Re: UK - in or out of the EU?

And there are likely just as many highly skilled, highly educated people who voted stay.

 

[amaroo]

Re: UK - in or out of the EU?

And there are likely just as many highly skilled, highly educated people who voted stay.

Well, the graph posted upthread basically indicates they were the only ones that did..

 

[whatmeworry]

Re: UK - in or out of the EU?

What a short sighted emotional decision. I'm not sure it should have been decided this way, Cameron's legacy really now is Brexit - he opened the door, let it happen and now it's happened.... 'Oh yeah I'm not going to be the one steering a sinking shop through uncharted waters, see ya'.
I feel sorry for the UK actually, I think the arguments to stay were so blindingly clear and obvious no one around the world thought they would vote otherwise but their flawed 'referendum' mechanic has delivered something that will now most probably make the whole population poorer, the country marginalised and probably even smaller if the rumblings in Ireland and Scotland manifest, and they will be living in a state of uncertainty for years to come.
My British mates are already messaging, asking about the job market here. Could be great for Aussie businesses, attract some bright minds over, pinch some business.
I'm a dual citizen and today my maroon passport looks very different.

Who would have thought the Brexit would lead to the end of the UK.

 

[Mal]

Re: UK - in or out of the EU?

And there are likely just as many highly skilled, highly educated people who voted stay.

Good on them! Remember, I live in London, and around 75% of the people in my electoral area (Southwark) voted Remain. Is their vote valid? Yes. They chose to remain due to their reasons. Is my vote valid? Definitely. I chose to leave based on my reasons.

People need to realise that the UK has used a democratic process to decide whether to stay in or leave the EU, and the result was Leave. Way too many bitter people are now saying "Oh, the result is wrong!". Well, no, the process was followed. Perhaps if David Cameron didn't have such a pathetic attempt at renegotiating the UK involvement in the EU, and perhaps if he actually did a better job with enforcing the rules that were available to him and the EU actually was less of a political bloat that just let out hot air, things would have been different.

 

[amaroo]

Re: UK - in or out of the EU?

Who would have thought the Brexit would lead to the end of the UK.

My money is on the EU ending well before the SNP finish their dreaming on another vote.

 

[Pushka]

Re: UK - in or out of the EU?

An aside. In SA our electorates are such that the majority vote doesn't (and currently) mean that party forms Government. Is that democratic? Supposed to be but it isnt.

Democracy is a myth sometimes.

 

[cove]

Re: UK - in or out of the EU?

I know it wasn't just browned up toast, hairdyers that dry and vacuum cleaners that suck.
You now have to live with a big trade deficit and a currency around 60 will allow tourism to improve.
It will be a big test for the central bank and I cannot see the hairdresser (or equivalent)in Germany wanting to send money to the UK for it to be spent on welfare.
This is a live test of economics and the 40 plus year trial has ended.
The fact that I think Farage is a real wanker does not mean I think the 52% don't have a point of view and that view needs to be respected.
Less rules and regulations will be a plus for Great Britain.

 

[Mal]

Re: UK - in or out of the EU?

Who would have thought the Brexit would lead to the end of the UK.

It's not the end of the UK. The UK will be strong outside of the EU. For example, from the Guardian today (Re the US), and recall a few months ago Obama stuck his nose into the debate (annoying many) by stating that the UK should remain.

“This is obviously not the outcome that either of our governments wanted but it’s democracy and so we’re moving on. We have to. It’s just too important not to. The relationship’s too important, the issues that we’re working with the UK on are too vital.
“You name it: Afghanistan, Ukraine, Syria, the Asia-Pacific region. The Brits are such a key partner on so many issues that it’s just too important to allow this to derail a lot of that cooperation.”

This is what will happen. There is life after the EU. The EU is a very major exporter to the UK, and they are not going to throttle that income.

 

[dajop]

Re: UK - in or out of the EU?

Almost certainly UK will have a free trade agreement with the EU anyway ....so it's not like trade will collapse.

 

[Pushka]

UK - in or out of the EU?

Another aside. On a Cruise forum the USA contributors are saying they are glad they did their cruise to the UK last year - the impact of the falling pound against the USD seems to have confused them somewhat. Stupid.

I can understand why UK wants release from the restrictions of the EU. Just pee'ed my super fund had to suffer for it. And at my age I have a snowball's chance in hell of being able to recover.

 

[vetrade]

Re: UK - in or out of the EU?

..............I think the arguments to stay were so blindingly clear and obvious................

Obviously not so clear after all, at least to the majority. Some people find introspection elusive.

 

[RooFlyer]

Re: UK - in or out of the EU?

What a short sighted emotional decision. I'm not sure it should have been decided this way, Cameron's legacy really now is Brexit - he opened the door, let it happen and now it's happened.... 'Oh yeah I'm not going to be the one steering a sinking shop through uncharted waters, see ya'.
I feel sorry for the UK actually, I think the arguments to stay were so blindingly clear and obvious no one around the world thought they would vote otherwise but their flawed 'referendum' mechanic has delivered something that will now most probably make the whole population poorer, the country marginalised and probably even smaller if the rumblings in Ireland and Scotland manifest, and they will be living in a state of uncertainty for years to come.
My British mates are already messaging, asking about the job market here. Could be great for Aussie businesses, attract some bright minds over, pinch some business.
I'm a dual citizen and today my maroon passport looks very different.

[Preface this by saying I'm not having a go at you pauly7 , but your comment encapsulates perfectly an issue on foot here and in the UK referendum]

I suggest this type of attitude is precisely the attitude that drove many to vote Leave. Its also the type of argument and attitude that drove people against the republic in our referendum. For instance:

"Not sure it should have been decided this way" - is that saying that the great unwashed should not have been trusted with a vote on the matter? Leave it to the elites?

"I think the arguments to stay were so blindingly clear and obvious no one around the world thought they would vote otherwise ... " Its terrible when the majority thinks differently, but that doesn't mean they are wrong. And quite a few of us did think the country would vote Leave, precisely because we suspected that the 'opinion leaders' and noise makers were, once again, out of touch with the general public.

" ... but their flawed 'referendum' mechanic has delivered something that will now most probably make the whole population poorer, the country marginalised and probably even smaller if the rumblings in Ireland and Scotland manifest, and they will be living in a state of uncertainty for years to come." Why the scare quotes around the word 'referendum'? Was it not a fair question? .. Stay or Leave ... Was it not open to all to vote (and the turn out was a record since the '90s I think)? The rest of that quote is just the type of fear mongering that turns people off in these sorts of questions.

"My British mates are already messaging, asking about the job market here." Why wouldn't they look to the job market in Europe if they are such fans?

 

[DaveB]

Re: UK - in or out of the EU?

I didn't have an opinion either way though feel Brexit will be a case of short term pain for long term gain. London finance jobs definitely in the short term loss category.
Being on the cold outside has never seemed to have hurt the Swiss.
Wonder how long Germany will continue to prop the EU financially now one of the other heavy lifters has gone. Made more interesting being seen as the villain by many of the dozen or so of the other 18 members who never deserved the same currency in the first place.

 

[amaroo]

Re: UK - in or out of the EU?

When the Scots voted on Independence (2014) a barrier of oil was selling for $100 .... that barrier is now worth under $50. One wonders what another Ind election would produce for the SNP!

Scotland's economy: GERS figures shows deficit up as oil revenue falls - BBC News

 

[whatmeworry]

Re: UK - in or out of the EU?

The search term 'Immigration to Australia' had a spike recently.

 

[Pushka]

Re: UK - in or out of the EU?

Being on the cold outside has never seemed to have hurt the Swiss.

There is a difference between never being in an allegiance, and pulling out of one.

On the other hand, some countries in Europe are a cot case. But isnt that what allegiances are all about?

 

[whatmeworry]

Re: UK - in or out of the EU?

It's not the end of the UK. The UK will be strong outside of the EU. For example, from the Guardian today (Re the US), and recall a few months ago Obama stuck his nose into the debate (annoying many) by stating that the UK should remain.

“This is obviously not the outcome that either of our governments wanted but it’s democracy and so we’re moving on. We have to. It’s just too important not to. The relationship’s too important, the issues that we’re working with the UK on are too vital.
“You name it: Afghanistan, Ukraine, Syria, the Asia-Pacific region. The Brits are such a key partner on so many issues that it’s just too important to allow this to derail a lot of that cooperation.”

This is what will happen. There is life after the EU. The EU is a very major exporter to the UK, and they are not going to throttle that income.

You keep dreaming. Tell me how it feels when England is by itself and in a long recession.

 

[drron]

Re: UK - in or out of the EU?

As well as sinn fein and SNP calling for independence referendums to be held for Northern Ireland and Scotland there are public calls for leave the EU referendums in France,Holland,Denmark and Italy.
It's cutting both ways.

 

[pauly7]

Re: UK - in or out of the EU?

View attachment 73805

I wonder how many "Adams" there are today ?
Adam didn't think it would actually happen... Don't be like Adam

I suspect a lot of Adams! If not simply because of the process that has been undertaken has been scant on detail on what would actually happen if Leave won.... Now they will find out....

Petition for a second referendum is up and passed the 100k mark in 5 seconds meaning it has to be discussed in parliament. Hast just passed 490k. Interesting to see how this develops:

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

I suspect a second referendum would rip the country apart though...

 

[vetrade]

Re: UK - in or out of the EU?

..........Just pee'ed my super fund had to suffer for it. And at my age I have a snowball's chance in hell of being able to recover.

A common sentiment I'm sure, Pushka, so some may find this info informative:

Futures contracts are used as an insurance instrument against falls in the stock market i.e. they can be used to “short” the market to reap profits to cover losses from falling share prices. For those unfamiliar, the ASX200 is a composite figure representing the “value” of the top 200 stocks on the ASX. Futures are expected to be higher than the underlying market because we generally expect that prices next month etc. will be higher than today.

So what have futures been doing lately? ASX200 futures for the June Quarterly Contract were trading at 4 points above the XJO (the “cash” price of the ASX200) when it expired last Thursday week. On the same day the new September Contract traded at 50 points below XJO.

So what does that mean in real terms? It means that fund managers and Corporates were heavily insuring with the September contract against potential losses from Brexit. Which was not surprising given that, unlike a lot of things that can cause the markets to crash (such as the Japan tsunami a few years ago), everyone knew that the Brexit vote would be on 23[SUP]rd[/SUP] June and had plenty of time to develop strategies for whatever eventuality that ensued. All that shorting of futures markets means that we can expect they would be in line to reap nice profits from yesterday’s falls.

Now consider the fact that fund managers use investors’ money (i.e. YOUR money) to finance those futures contracts. Good, you might think, the fall in my portfolio will be covered by those profits, right? WRONG! Because there is no obligation on the “fundies” to return those profits to the investors, and in practice they certainly don’t! In fact they don’t even have to report them.
Accordingly, when you get your EOFY statement there may be a note saying how your balance was “unfortunately negatively impacted by the Brexit crash……… but don’t worry because the investments are “solid” and their values will bounce back in time”. Meanwhile they’re sitting at their desks working out how to divvy up the profits as bonuses to themselves. In a lot of cases the “system” allows them to get it tax free as well!

Most people have no inkling that during the GFC shorting created enough profits (literally $Billions) to cover a large proportion of the stock market losses. Not that investors got to see any of it.
A second scenario to ponder for those who use brokers for recommendations on which stocks to hold in their SMSF or personal portfolios:

Most people don’t realise that their brokers are forbidden to hold shares in companies they recommend to their customers. So, do you think your broker is recommending the very best investments to you? Or do you think he might invest in them himself and suggest you buy something else, i.e. stocks he WOULDN’T buy for himself?

You have to laugh when financial advisors etc. pontificate as if they are the all-knowing bastions of financial market investment knowledge and the implications of things like Brexit on financial markets. Maybe their real agenda is different to the hype. The truth is a lot of them are only experts in emptying money from your pockets into theirs – and whether your investments rise or fall in value under their advice they still take their fees irrespective. A very wise and wealthy mentor of mine once told me never to forget that those who control financial investment markets primarily use it to transfer money from those who have little to those who have a lot.

Now I'll put my helmet on and wait for the responses.