US election 2020

[get me outta here]

Good advice for us all.

An interesting article explaining why Trump will likely win. A quick look at the comments shows how divided the country is.

NYT Article. Who Can Win America’s Politics of Humiliation?

 

[dajop]

An interesting article explaining why Trump will likely win. A quick look at the comments shows how divided the country is.

NYT Article. Who Can Win America’s Politics of Humiliation?

Yes excellent article, and interesting comments (interesting that some people in the comments don't get it either ... ).

This is exactly the sentiment John Howard tapped into 20 years ago in stripping the ALP of some of their natural constituency. Although arguably ALP didn't need to pander as much to the far left as the Dems do, as they are able to rely on preference flows, unlike in the US where it's first past the post.

 

[burmans]

The problem I have with analysis like this is that while I agree that the pro Trump supporters can't be shaken and the anti-Trump people are more so, this is somewhat irrelevant. Both of these groups are 30-40% of the population but here's the thing, most were never going to change their mind anyway, elections are always decided by those in the middle, the undecided. Last time they decided to give Trump a chance, the question is whether they will do so again. These are the people who will decide this election and have always done so, as their votes do change election to election.

 

[dajop]

The problem I have with analysis like this is that while I agree that the pro Trump supporters can't be shaken and the anti-Trump people are more so, this is somewhat irrelevant. Both of these groups are 30-40% of the population but here's the thing, most were never going to change their mind anyway, elections are always decided by those in the middle, the undecided. Last time they decided to give Trump a chance, the question is whether they will do so again. These are the people who will decide this election and have always done so, as their votes do change election to election.

That’s a very Australian way of looking at things. Isn’t it more complicated than that in the US?

Undecided voters are part of the dynamic for sure, but also about getting your supporters motivated enough to get off their backsides and to a polling booth is another important dynamic - which is why Hilary and now Joe have walk the tightrope between “mainstream” and more left leaning policies. If you can’t motivate enough of those that support your side of politics to get out to vote - then that also can spell trouble.

In the last election it was also suggested are number of left leaning people could not and would not vote for Hilary because they simply didn’t like or trust her, so stayed at home.

 

[Steady]

That’s a very Australian way of looking at things. Isn’t it more complicated than that in the US?

Undecided voters are part of the dynamic for sure, but also about getting your supporters motivated enough to get off their backsides and to a polling booth is another important dynamic - which is why Hilary and now Joe have walk the tightrope between “mainstream” and more left leaning policies. If you can’t motivate enough of those that support your side of politics to get out to vote - then that also can spell trouble.

In the last election it was also suggested are number of left leaning people could not and would not vote for Hilary because they simply didn’t like or trust her, so stayed at home.

Yes, If you really don’t like either side, and don’t have to vote, why would you.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

That’s a very Australian way of looking at things. Isn’t it more complicated than that in the US?

Undecided voters are part of the dynamic for sure, but also about getting your supporters motivated enough to get off their backsides and to a polling booth is another important dynamic - which is why Hilary and now Joe have walk the tightrope between “mainstream” and more left leaning policies. If you can’t motivate enough of those that support your side of politics to get out to vote - then that also can spell trouble.

In the last election it was also suggested are number of left leaning people could not and would not vote for Hilary because they simply didn’t like or trust her, so stayed at home.

The USA ethos is so vastly different from the Australian ethos that it is probably extremely difficult for us here to fully understand the dymacis of what drives the votes in the USA.

Added to that is their entirely voting system both in terms of non-compulsory voting, how those votes elect the President and also how different voting methods are used in each state.

Then the third layer being how their media many tends to be so pro for one camp or another as that is good for the viability of the media and their owners. Not that Australian media is not biased, but in the USA it is just so glaring obvious and not at all veiled. The news channel is often more blatant PR than any attempt of being unbiased balanced journalism.

 

[burmans]

Sure, getting people out and voting for you is an issue. But even if you get them out you don't necessarily win, as Hilary found out last time. And in terms of getting people out and voting I see nothing fundamental that has changed for those who have already made up their mind. Trump voters are motivated to vote Trump but are they more motivated? I see no reason to think so, same for the anti-Trump people, perhaps they dislike Trump more but that's probably offset by the pro-Trump fervor.

I do think those in the middle will be more motivated to vote this time. Last time they voted to give Trump a chance without really knowing what he offered, this time they have seen in spades what he offers. Being Trump it's unlikely these people don't now have a stronger opinion, in either negative/positive direction hence more likely to vote.

 

[DC3]

Yes, If you really don’t like either side, and don’t have to vote, why would you.

Not that I can vote, anyway, but in that case, I would vote for the one that I disliked the least.

 

[p--and--t]

Not that I can vote, anyway, but in that case, I would vote for the one that I disliked the least.

One of the reasons I have a preference for compulsory voting even though it has its own quirks and problems.

At least you can gauge the vast majority of the population (even the informal votes mean something).

 

[NoName]

Why should totally disinterested people be forced to vote? That just wastes time and resources. If you have no interest in voting then you have no interest in the result. And that’s fine.

 

[DC3]

Why should totally disinterested people be forced to vote? That just wastes time and resources. If you have no interest in voting then you have no interest in the result. And that’s fine.

Something like “Goddam, it’s my right not to have to vote?

Edit: Although in Oz, we seem to have a pretty good voter turn-out, with about 5% informal at the 2016 Fed election, if this article is correct:

Informal Vote Declines In Federal Election; Sydney Again Records Highest Rates | AustralianPolitics.com

 

[NoName]

Something like “Goddam, it’s my right not to have to vote?

Exactly. Shouldn’t be forcing people to engage in the process if they don’t want to. I mean, sure we could walk in, have our name ticked off and put a blank ballot into the box but then what purpose does that serve other than to waste the time of all concerned?

 

[dajop]

Why should totally disinterested people be forced to vote? That just wastes time and resources. If you have no interest in voting then you have no interest in the result. And that’s fine.

No one is forcing anyone to vote, just to collect a ballot paper.

Don't forgot a huge amount of resources (in the US) go into persuading people to get out and vote - parties even providing transport for target constituencies.

IMHO the compulsory measure is a good check on the tendency to drag things to the extremes like, ahem, the Divided States of America.

 

[NoName]

No one is forcing anyone to vote, just to collect a ballot paper.

That is semantics. Whether putting the ballot into the box blank or completed or into the bin outside before buying a sausage, a person who otherwise wouldn’t bother turning up has been forced to be a part of the process. They shouldn’t be.

 

[serfty]

Not that I can vote, anyway, but in that case, I would vote for the one that I disliked the least.

That is the beauty of preferential voting - you get to put the candidate you like the least, last.

 

[DC3]

That is semantics. Whether putting the ballot into the box blank or completed or into the bin outside before buying a sausage, a person who otherwise wouldn’t bother turning up has been forced to be a part of the process. They shouldn’t be.

Yes, so many rules to follow and so many inconveniences in our modern life.

Our fore-fathers of old had things so easy in their day.

 

[Flying mermaid]

Exactly. Shouldn’t be forcing people to engage in the process if they don’t want to. I mean, sure we could walk in, have our name ticked off and put a blank ballot into the box but then what purpose does that serve other than to waste the time of all concerned?

It’s interesting that because people have to vote they actually take some trouble to think about it and work out who they should vote for. Sure some people vote informal and some vote the same way as their family does, but I did notice with my kids and their friends that the fact that they had to vote meant they became interested in the candidates.

 

[TheRealTMA]

That is the beauty of preferential voting - you get to put the candidate you like the least, last.

Yes I like starting from the bottom number, particularly on federal senate elections.

 

[p--and--t]

It’s interesting that because people have to vote they actually take some trouble to think about it and work out who they should vote for. Sure some people vote informal and some vote the same way as their family does, but I did notice with my kids and their friends that the fact that they had to vote meant they became interested in the candidates.

I've never given a thought about ovens and the differences, reviews, benefits and cons for nearly seven decades and never.made a purchase. Because i didn't have to.

I have spent hours googling and talking to salespeople in the last week because I am compelled. I have informed myself to make a choice.

If I wasn't put into the current situation i may have never informed myself or voted with my feet as the saying goes before I died.

I never knew the options I had and wondering why I didn't upgrade earlier - complacency.

Bit like voting?

 

[PLM]

If the Dems were smart, they'd have found a younger governor from a purple or red state to nominate to contrast not just personality and policy but also generational change, a bit like Obama v McCain. The people who have a deep hatred for Trump will vote for Biden for the sake of it, but I'm yet to hear anyone make a convincing argument that Biden is an attractive candidate in and of himself. I'm not sure you can win purely on an anti-the-other-person platform.