Virgin 787s?

[Lucass]

Will virgin australia dry-lease some 787s from qatar eventually? They could get some of their ageing 787-8s and use them for los angeles/asia flights. They could also use them on mel/syd/bne to perth flights to better compete with Qantas.

 

[twinaisle]

Pigs would grow wings faster than this would happen tbh

 

[markis10]

There’s quite a few 787s for lease at present, so I doubt it will happen. Having a second local international carrier has always been a struggle with AN leaning on SQ leased aircraft and more recently VA MK1 both failing to make an impact.

 

[justinbrett]

What did JH say about learning their lessons and not repeating past mistakes?

 

[Lucass]

Pigs would grow wings faster than this would happen tbh

Hahah why? If VA were to return to having its own wide-bodies, the 787 would make the most sense. Qatar, being a major partner, and soon part owner with 30 787-8s, many above 10 years old would be a great place for VA to get second-hand jets.

 

[Simon Overall]

Hahah why? If VA were to return to having its own wide-bodies, the 787 would make the most sense. Qatar, being a major partner, and soon part owner with 30 787-8s, many above 10 years old would be a great place for VA to get second-hand jets.

I mean the Sydney/Melbourne to LAX routes alone are highly competitive. Why on earth would Virgin introducing used 787s make any sense?

 

[DC3]

Why on earth would Virgin introducing used 787s make any sense?

Mainly because an AFFer would like this to happen?

 

[oz_mark]

Lots of things could happen, but let's see how their Doha flights go first. That might determine what they do after the five years is up.

 

[Lucass]

I mean the Sydney/Melbourne to LAX routes alone are highly competitive. Why on earth would Virgin introducing used 787s make any sense?

Qatar is a major partner, they want a really young fleet, so they would likely hand them off to virgin for far cheaper than if VA were to order them brand new. They can also use them on both domestic and international routes, unlike their 777s which didn’t fit into domestic gates. Also I don’t mean Syd-lax or Mel-lax as they are unready served by many airlines, including United, but bne-max could be possible, as United doesn’t fly this route, so they could codeshare with them. Then of course they could start routes into Asia with the 787 planes

Post automatically merged: Yesterday at 5:56 PM

Mainly because an AFFer would like this to happen?

It’s a logical choice, they were already eying the 787 pre-Covid

 

[TheInsider]

It’s a logical choice, they were already eying the 787 pre-Covid

Precovid it was a different airline, with different shareholders and failed miserably from its existence.

Unfortunately everything you are saying is your own wish list with no actual knowledge of how the 'Virgin Australia' operation works. I think the branding of what VA is aspiring to be to what it actually is may be confusing.

 

[TheInsider]

Qatar is a major partner, they want a really young fleet, so they would likely hand them off to virgin for far cheaper than if VA were to order them brand new. They can also use them on both domestic and international routes, unlike their 777s which didn’t fit into domestic gates. Also I don’t mean Syd-lax or Mel-lax as they are unready served by many airlines, including United, but bne-max could be possible, as United doesn’t fly this route, so they could codeshare with them. Then of course they could start routes into Asia with the 787 planes

Qatar is a partner, but still is their own business and is there to make profits, not to give planes away for cheap.
Bringing a new aircraft type into their fleet is time consuming and extremely expensive. To use it on domestic flights and then international is silly, especially with crewing costs for a small airline like VA.
US market is oversaturated as it is, and more completion will result in no profit for VA if they decided to fly, especially if it's from one Australian port.

 

[Lucass]

Precovid it was a different airline, with different shareholders and failed miserably from its existence.

Unfortunately everything you are saying is your own wish list with no actual knowledge of how the 'Virgin Australia' operation works. I think the branding of what VA is aspiring to be to what it actually is may be confusing.

We know they are eying their own wide-body planes. Whether that be in 3 years or 5 or 10 years, we don't know that. I agree Qatar won't just give them for a cheap amount, but it will still be cheaper and FAR QUICKER than ordering them brand new, which as the CEO says would take almost 6 years. There are still gaps in the international market which they could fill, especially through codeshares with their partners like Singapore Airlines and United. Also, Qantas is the only carrier to have lie flat East-West coast business seats, so no, it wouldn't be 'silly' for them to have domestic 787 flights. VA have very high load factors and they need more capacity on many routes, the 787 would enable this.

 

[elanshin]

Qatar is a major partner, they want a really young fleet, so they would likely hand them off to virgin for far cheaper than if VA were to order them brand new. They can also use them on both domestic and international routes, unlike their 777s which didn’t fit into domestic gates. Also I don’t mean Syd-lax or Mel-lax as they are unready served by many airlines, including United, but bne-max could be possible, as United doesn’t fly this route, so they could codeshare with them. Then of course they could start routes into Asia with the 787 planes

Post automatically merged: Yesterday at 5:56 PM

It’s a logical choice, they were already eying the 787 pre-Covid

Just so you're aware of some history. This is basically why VA1.0 failed. Qatar randomly giving planes or approving reckless plans is also against how they've been strategically investing in profitable operations.

You can point at them giving wetlease to VA for DOH but that's backed by their own data and need to effectively fly more QR flights to DOH.

There's very few markets right now that is low hanging fruit for VA to try even if they wanted to (which they don't). You try to challenge any of the legacy (and not just QF) on trunk routes and we'll see them muscle their way to bankrupt VA again. (Think Rex trying to break into the 737 capital cities market). On the cheap end, JQ, D3, TR and the chinese carriers have those markets pretty solid.

The only possibility is trying a low cost value to US mainland - but given the cost of visiting US right now, thays not a LCC market.

 

[ben95]

so no, it wouldn't be 'silly' for them to have domestic 787 flights

QF wouldn't fly 787 to perth from sydney if they didn't have to reposition the aircraft to perth for the onward flight to Europe. It's very different to schedule a 787 on a commercial flight in liue of a dedicated repositioning flight than say buying aircraft, training the crew, upgrading the gates etc for the sole purpose of flying to Perth.

 

[Lucass]

Just so you're aware of some history. This is basically why VA1.0 failed. Qatar randomly giving planes or approving reckless plans is also against how they've been strategically investing in profitable operations.

You can point at them giving wetlease to VA for DOH but that's backed by their own data and need to effectively fly more QR flights to DOH.

There's very few markets right now that is low hanging fruit for VA to try even if they wanted to (which they don't). You try to challenge any of the legacy (and not just QF) on trunk routes and we'll see them muscle their way to bankrupt VA again. (Think Rex trying to break into the 737 capital cities market). On the cheap end, JQ, D3, TR and the chinese carriers have those markets pretty solid.

The only possibility is trying a low cost value to US mainland - but given the cost of visiting US right now, thays not a LCC market.

Well REX had the same strategy as Virigin did coming out of Covid, and they had nothing different to offer, they even had VA's cabin, of course they were going to fail.

QF wouldn't fly 787 to perth from sydney if they didn't have to reposition the aircraft to perth for the onward flight to Europe. It's very different to schedule a 787 on a commercial flight in liue of a dedicated repositioning flight than say buying aircraft, training the crew, upgrading the gates etc for the sole purpose of flying to Perth.

They are replacing domestic a330s with 787s in future

 

[Lucass]

Just so you're aware of some history. This is basically why VA1.0 failed. Qatar randomly giving planes or approving reckless plans is also against how they've been strategically investing in profitable operations.

You can point at them giving wetlease to VA for DOH but that's backed by their own data and need to effectively fly more QR flights to DOH.

There's very few markets right now that is low hanging fruit for VA to try even if they wanted to (which they don't). You try to challenge any of the legacy (and not just QF) on trunk routes and we'll see them muscle their way to bankrupt VA again. (Think Rex trying to break into the 737 capital cities market). On the cheap end, JQ, D3, TR and the chinese carriers have those markets pretty solid.

The only possibility is trying a low cost value to US mainland - but given the cost of visiting US right now, thays not a LCC market.

They are interested in opening up their own services, and there are many routes they could eneter. BNE-LAX for example would be succesful, and they could easily fill a 787-8 on that route whilst codesharing with united. Honolulu, from MEL/BNE would also be an opportunity for them, Tokyo flights from BNE would also be a great route for VA, so they do have market opportunities.

 

[TheInsider]

They are interested in opening up their own services, and there are many routes they could eneter. BNE-LAX for example would be succesful, and they could easily fill a 787-8 on that route whilst codesharing with united. Honolulu, from MEL/BNE would also be an opportunity for them, Tokyo flights from BNE would also be a great route for VA, so they do have market opportunities.

Once again I think you are playing the armchair CEO role again. Just because you say they would be successful, doesn't mean that they will be and it's been proven many times that these 'opportunities' are failures.

Japan routes are extremely thin in profits.

Just by putting a codeshare on a flight, doesn't mean it will fill up either.

Honolulu is a premium leisure destination and not good for business travel, which is what is needed for a VA international operation to be successful. Otherwise, they just need to compete with JQ and be a LCC, which according to VA, they aren't.

They are replacing domestic a330s with 787s in future

Where would VA get the crew from? How would they train them up? What EBA would they have to go on?
Qantas currently has many trained crew (pilots and cabin) which are on a different EBA to the domestic crew. You have a scale thing here. VA have nothing. You can't even get flight sim training on short notice, many places are booked out for years and Qantas is even sending crew to overseas ports to do their training.

There are so many other factors than just putting on a flight, because you think it may make sense to you.

 

[justinbrett]

Well REX had the same strategy as Virigin did coming out of Covid, and they had nothing different to offer, they even had VA's cabin, of course they were going to fail.

They are replacing domestic a330s with 787s in future

Actually I think they did have something different, they were aiming for VA1's model, competing against VA2.

Sadly nobody told them VA1's model had already failed.

They are interested in opening up their own services, and there are many routes they could eneter. BNE-LAX for example would be succesful, and they could easily fill a 787-8 on that route whilst codesharing with united. Honolulu, from MEL/BNE would also be an opportunity for them, Tokyo flights from BNE would also be a great route for VA, so they do have market opportunities.

If HNL-SYD/MEL was viable UA would already be flying it. They don't need VA.

 

[ben95]

They are replacing domestic a330s with 787s in future

those “domestic” a330s nowadays are quite often found flying internationally. plus we don’t know if Qantas would designate them “domestic” - we only know they will retire a330 and replace with 787, but didn’t say they would be domestic. I’d say premium lie-flat domestic products are on their way out.

They are interested in opening up their own services,

And you know that how? All indication says they are really concerned about the viability of long haul international flying.

 

[Lucass]

Once again I think you are playing the armchair CEO role again. Just because you say they would be successful, doesn't mean that they will be and it's been proven many times that these 'opportunities' are failures.

Japan routes are extremely thin in profits.

Just by putting a codeshare on a flight, doesn't mean it will fill up either.

Honolulu is a premium leisure destination and not good for business travel, which is what is needed for a VA international operation to be successful. Otherwise, they just need to compete with JQ and be a LCC, which according to VA, they aren't.


Where would VA get the crew from? How would they train them up? What EBA would they have to go on?
Qantas currently has many trained crew (pilots and cabin) which are on a different EBA to the domestic crew. You have a scale thing here. VA have nothing. You can't even get flight sim training on short notice, many places are booked out for years and Qantas is even sending crew to overseas ports to do their training.

There are so many other factors than just putting on a flight, because you think it may make sense to you.

Ok, why don’t you tell me a plan for VA that could be successful for them internationally, let me hear your thoughts