I wonder what the stats are on points redemption. Wonder what % is actually maximizing points by using on international J/F flights, assuming there is no other better way?
Well my folks aren't contributing to that stat.
VA longhaul J is very hard to get. Ditto NZ J. Domestic, on the whole, however, is pretty easy. On the worthwhile partners, that leaves basically SQ and EY. SQ benefits from the KrisFlyer sweep (which is currently uncapped annually) so that also opens Star Alliance.
However, as you say, all those start to get more and more esoteric in a way. For us as seasoned frequent flyers, it is no problem.
Many common people will likely be getting gift cards out of this. Others will basically ensure they have lots and lots of cheap flights, or J flights, within Australia for a while.
I'm assuming many here on this forum will be able to take a flight or two to spoil themselves. The timing may be an issue but there should be enough to go around, as such. One thing is that this sign up was not able to rope in the common bloggers or the like, so there's not really the scale of "exploitation" that it could have had in those arenas.
Let's not forget we are probably all not doing this at once. I may have fallen in a windfall of some 150,000 Velocity points, but I don't know when and how I am spending that just yet. Also, some may have started with a balance close to 0 so 110,000 points by itself is nice but not something which you just blow straight out without thinking through (e.g. yes that's a SQ F flight between MEL and NRT, but you need to work out how to get back). Others with pre-existing balances have a better range and chance.
I guess that's the argument for not putting the brakes on, as such. Amex/Velocity could have dished out as many of these points as they liked, and what was the damage? If there are not enough good seats to go around, they're not on the hook for them. Spreading that demand over a few years will help them balance the damage. Some may cash in on smaller rewards (toasters, iPads, gift cards). And some may forget about the points (breakage). All the while, Amex can collect annual fees and interest (if some don't pay up on time). Velocity has a nice side cart to claim on the liabilities side of the balance sheet when it wants to.
