Virgin Australia Financially Secure? [Now in Voluntary Administration]

[jakeseven7]

VA need to sharpen their domestic pricing, our (admittedly young and fit) office are splashing our booking domestic ‘coronavirus holidays’ - yes it’s now a thing!! All with Qantas who have a wide sale on right now and very good avails and dates.

 

[jase05]

VA need to sharpen their domestic pricing, our (admittedly young and fit) office are splashing our booking domestic ‘coronavirus holidays’ - yes it’s now a thing!! All with Qantas who have a wide sale on right now and very good avails and dates.

Booked 2 more flights this afternoon
ADL-MEL in J over ANZAC weekend return was $898 with VA, QF wanted $1235
ADL-CBR in J over Easter to visit my parents was $1215 with VA, QF wanted $2230
Obviously every route is different but for me it was an easy decision especially when there is two of us

 

[jakeseven7]

Booked 2 more flights this afternoon
ADL-MEL in J over ANZAC weekend return was $898 with VA, QF wanted $1235
ADL-CBR in J over Easter to visit my parents was $1215 with VA, QF wanted $2230
Obviously every route is different but for me it was an easy decision especially when there is two of us

Don't think our team are booking J mate (VA always cheaper in J chicken sandwiches class) but good for you!! Nice!

 

[jase05]

Don't think our team are booking J mate (VA always cheaper in J chicken sandwiches class) but good for you!! Nice!

Chicken sandwich or Neil’s party pies was a tough choice

 

[Spongbob]

At sub 10 cents, VAH shares might be a good buy?

Or is that good bye?

 

[Isochronous]

I think Scurrah bought with personal funds above 10c so at 6c he's down half on current numbers. VAH has less international exposure compared to QF so if they can keep the domestic cash cow going then maybe they'll survive...

 

[pauly7]

I think Scurrah bought with personal funds above 10c so at 6c he's down half on current numbers. VAH has less international exposure compared to QF so if they can keep the domestic cash cow going then maybe they'll survive...

Yes as has been said before many times in this thread

The only thing I’m slightly concerned about is a knee jerk reaction from government that would impact the VA domestic (and QF Domestic for that matter) businesses.

The Fed government seems to be stumbling with it’s communication and alignment with the states and community bodies; we have Scomo and Hunt sounding just a little bit.... strained telling is to ‘it’s ok to go to public events, I’m going to the footy so you can too etc’.

Meanwhile through the states or the organising bodies all these big events are being cancelled one by one. Dark mof_ (there was a huge rush of cancellations) and now the F1 cancelled. A big festival in Sydney was cancelled. Conferences are being cancelled. People travel for the AFL as well and the first few rounds may be cancelled.

I’m a little worried that the Feds seeking to catch up and not look so ‘fingers crossed let’s see how we go’ in their approach to this might flip the other way and slap a blanket ban on mass public gatherings and impact the domestic travel business in the process. Would it be a death blow? I don’t think so..... but it would hurt a lot.

I know there is the trend of a coronavirus holiday popping up all over social media and even on here - but would that compensate / override a reaction from government on events?

(PS I’m not making a statement or starting a discussion on whether the government is right or wrong in their position on events - save that for the other coronavirus threads to keep this thread on topic I’m just highlighting a small niggle I have thinking about domestic travel now)

 

[exceladdict]

Yeah that will be interesting. Flexible policies all only applying to international bookings. Fares still high on the routes I'm searching, 1-2 months out, probably as a result of recent of announced but not specifically publicised domestic capacity tightening.

What will be interesting is forward bookings 3-12 months out. I imagine that might put the pressure on and result in discounting.

Workplaces can't be far off holding domestic travel too; both for budgetary and virus reasons. Commonwealth doing so would impact both carriers.

 

[wannabeinvestmentbanker]

Some further updates out this morning (a little late from the ASX release given the crazy overnight moves).


Key changes are:
• Reducing the daily Brisbane to Haneda service to three times per week from 29 March until 3 May.
• Reducing the daily Sydney to Los Angeles service to five times per week from early May to early June.
• Further reducing Trans-Tasman services from a 2.6 per cent reduction to 6 per cent for 2H20, including the strategic reduction of frequencies on Auckland-Melbourne to daily from May and a temporary reduction on Auckland-Sydney services.

In addition, the Group also announced an exit of the following services as a continuation of the ongoing network strategic review:
• Auckland-Tonga to cease on 1 May.
• Auckland-Rarotonga to cease on 21 July.


On the expense side:

Continued focus on cost reduction In addition to the already announced 750 non-Enterprise Agreement (EA) role reductions and middle and senior management salary freezes, the Group is also undertaking further measures to reduce costs including:
• Seeking relief on Government charges.
• A decrease in marketing spend.
• Stopping all discretionary spend and non-critical capital expenditure.
• Targeting a reduction in hotel accommodation charges.
• Leave initiatives including using accrued annual leave or unpaid leave or reducing standard working hours where operationally available.
• A freeze on all external recruitment and the use of consultants for the remainder of FY20.
• Chairman and Independent Directors to reduce their base fees by 15 per cent temporarily. Nominee Directors do not currently receive fees.
• Reducing all bonuses to zero across the Group for FY20.
• No base salary increases for non-EA team members.

**all sourced from ASX release

 

[exceladdict]

Some further updates out this morning (a little late from the ASX release given the crazy overnight moves).


Key changes are:
• Reducing the daily Brisbane to Haneda service to three times per week from 29 March until 3 May.
• Reducing the daily Sydney to Los Angeles service to five times per week from early May to early June.
• Further reducing Trans-Tasman services from a 2.6 per cent reduction to 6 per cent for 2H20, including the strategic reduction of frequencies on Auckland-Melbourne to daily from May and a temporary reduction on Auckland-Sydney services.

In addition, the Group also announced an exit of the following services as a continuation of the ongoing network strategic review:
• Auckland-Tonga to cease on 1 May.
• Auckland-Rarotonga to cease on 21 July.


On the expense side:

Continued focus on cost reduction In addition to the already announced 750 non-Enterprise Agreement (EA) role reductions and middle and senior management salary freezes, the Group is also undertaking further measures to reduce costs including:
• Seeking relief on Government charges.
• A decrease in marketing spend.
• Stopping all discretionary spend and non-critical capital expenditure.
• Targeting a reduction in hotel accommodation charges.
• Leave initiatives including using accrued annual leave or unpaid leave or reducing standard working hours where operationally available.
• A freeze on all external recruitment and the use of consultants for the remainder of FY20.
• Chairman and Independent Directors to reduce their base fees by 15 per cent temporarily. Nominee Directors do not currently receive fees.
• Reducing all bonuses to zero across the Group for FY20.
• No base salary increases for non-EA team members.

**all sourced from ASX release

I imagine that will chip away at cash outflows, but no significant decisions such as cancelling Japan.

 

[jakeseven7]

I imagine that will chip away at cash outflows, but no significant decisions such as cancelling Japan.

I'd say cutting Japan by more than 50% capacity before even launching is pretty significant don't you think....?

 

[HS-TQE]

I'd say cutting Japan by more than 50% capacity before even launching is pretty significant don't you think....?

In addition, no news from the Japanese authorities about relaxing the "Use It or Lose It" slot rule would have an impact on the airlines starting services at the end of March (including VA). Suspect most others will be starting at "less than daily".

If Japan gives the all clear on relaxing that rule, there's a really good chance that most airlines (including VA) will delay their HND launches, as soon as that presser comes out.

 

[jakeseven7]

Some further updates out this morning (a little late from the ASX release given the crazy overnight moves).


Key changes are:
• Reducing the daily Brisbane to Haneda service to three times per week from 29 March until 3 May.
• Reducing the daily Sydney to Los Angeles service to five times per week from early May to early June.
• Further reducing Trans-Tasman services from a 2.6 per cent reduction to 6 per cent for 2H20, including the strategic reduction of frequencies on Auckland-Melbourne to daily from May and a temporary reduction on Auckland-Sydney services.

In addition, the Group also announced an exit of the following services as a continuation of the ongoing network strategic review:
• Auckland-Tonga to cease on 1 May.
• Auckland-Rarotonga to cease on 21 July.


On the expense side:

Continued focus on cost reduction In addition to the already announced 750 non-Enterprise Agreement (EA) role reductions and middle and senior management salary freezes, the Group is also undertaking further measures to reduce costs including:
• Seeking relief on Government charges.
• A decrease in marketing spend.
• Stopping all discretionary spend and non-critical capital expenditure.
• Targeting a reduction in hotel accommodation charges.
• Leave initiatives including using accrued annual leave or unpaid leave or reducing standard working hours where operationally available.
• A freeze on all external recruitment and the use of consultants for the remainder of FY20.
• Chairman and Independent Directors to reduce their base fees by 15 per cent temporarily. Nominee Directors do not currently receive fees.
• Reducing all bonuses to zero across the Group for FY20.
• No base salary increases for non-EA team members.

**all sourced from ASX release

They are also suspending guidance which means much more $'s lost than projected I think is fair to assume.

 

[Melburnian1]

Having staff on reduced hours will save money, but one wonders if further redundancies - this time among operating staff like cabin crew - is likely to occur?

 

[wannabeinvestmentbanker]

Having staff on reduced hours will save money, but one wonders if further redundancies - this time among operating staff like cabin crew - is likely to occur?

I think it's hard to know in this industry given the unionisation and EBAs etc.

I've just had my domestic travel pulled until end of March and another mate who travels as much for work as I do has also had all travel cancelled. Flights are going to be going out very empty for the next little while

 

[exceladdict]

I'd say cutting Japan by more than 50% capacity before even launching is pretty significant don't you think....?

Just in comparison to QF postponing BNE-ORD altogether for quite a while, for example.

 

[jakeseven7]

Having staff on reduced hours will save money, but one wonders if further redundancies - this time among operating staff like cabin crew - is likely to occur?

Remember VA contracts out alot of staff.

And there is a lot of casual.

Might be easier than you think!

 

[moa999]

Bonds down to $57.
VAH actually recovered to above 6c today.

 

[wannabeinvestmentbanker]

Which bonds are trading at 57? I can't see any trading anywhere near that level based off reported and Bloomberg composite pricing?

 

[moa999]

Which bonds are trading at 57? I

The Virgin ones - VAHHA.
Issued in December to pay for the Velocity buyback.