What is Virgin Australia's strategy (post-administration)?

[jakeseven7]

All this talk about VA entering SIN is as likely as "SQ TAEK OVAH OF VA!!!11!!!!",

Who (apart from you) is consistently reposting this…? Must be missing all these offensive posts

 

[HS-TQE]

We can sustain it. Again how much traffic is going through SIA group. I actually wonder just how much seats they have from Aus <> SIN . It's probably a shockingly large number. (Likely can rival QF group operations that travel to Asia / Europe).

Getting back on topic, traffic through major partners doesn't exactly translate to traffic for the local partner's international operations.

They serve different purposes such as the EK/QF and SQ/VA partnerships, although the later was originally domestic focused - SQ has expanded in some regional cities to establish more Australian gateways and interlines through other partners (on routes where VA or their regional contractors doesn't serve).

 

[RooFlyer]

Canada is 52% larger than Australia population wise.

And yet you used France and Italy, both 100% larger than Australia's population, to support your argument. Whoosh! Those goalposts again.

Ansett Australia and the old Virgin Australia couldn’t agree more! This is certainly not beating a dead horse! Definitely not.

Yeah, of course I did qualify:

Point is, structured and funded correctly, ....

There are more people flying to/from Canada for business and tourism than people flying to/from Australia, and the country is located next to the largest economy in the world. I’m not sure why you think Canada is comparable to Australia in regards to this argument.

Probably because Canada is more like Australia than any other country you have mentioned - population, geography, culture, economy (I mean, your nominee - Malaysia??). Yes, there is the USA next door, home to about 5 or so international airlines that will kill any Canadian company in terms of cost and most in terms of network. Australia has China quite close - home of many international airlines that fly to Australia and who also can kill any Australian airline in terms of cost. So again, Australia and Canada are similar in terms of the gorilla next door - add it to all the other similarities.

Canada sustains 2 international/longhaul airlines.

As its hard to have a discussion where the basis and definitions are in constant flux, I think I'll leave you there (to chorus of AMEN )
___

Unlike virtually every country mentioned, Australia has a population almost addicted to overseas travel, much, by necessity, long haul flying. We could easily sustain an additional international airline, properly structured and funded (ie 'big brother' needed) and picking its markets thoughtfully. Lets hope so.

 

[HS-TQE]

Unlike virtually every country mentioned, Australia has a population almost addicted to overseas travel, much, by necessity, long haul flying. We could easily sustain an additional international airline, properly structured and funded (ie 'big brother' needed) and picking its markets thoughtfully. Lets hope so.

Going by history, the 'Bigger Brother' of the Past and Present competitors to the QF group on their international routes hasn't got a stellar history.

Going all the way back to News Corp/TNT's Ansett International's focus on Asia which pretty much got destroyed by the Asian Financial crisis and most routes gradually disappeared overnight. When NZ got control of Ansett, the long haul was already reduced to HKG and KIX (partnership with NH) from SYD (HKG and KIX), BNE (KIX) and MEL (HKG).

V Australia's implementation was a mess with 'sub-configurations' of the 777 fleet (cargo door configurations) under Brett Godfrey as then CEO. With JNB and HKT from MEL and LAX from SYD and BNE.
Only choice they actually got right was the LAX operation and the eventual JV with (now former) partner DL which lasted until the end of Long Haul operations.

Unfortunately "too many cooks" with the shareholder structure led to disastrous decisions like the AUH and HKG routes to help their ailing "co-owners/big brothers", which lost money for both their co-owners and VA.

Edit: Just remembered the "fly by night" Air Australia (Strategic) operation between MEL/BNE to HKT/HNL. That lasted as long as Bonza from memory.

 

[RooFlyer]

Unfortunately "too many cooks" with the shareholder structure led to disastrous decisions like the AUH and HKG routes to help their ailing "co-owners/big brothers", which lost money for both their co-owners and VA.

Definitely fair comment. My 'big brother' bit probably badly worded - I meant someone with deep pockets..

 

[HS-TQE]

Also forgot the old NZ/VA JV which was initiated back when NZ had their 24% stake in VA. Whilst the JV was a success for NZ, it wasn't so much for VA with the then-CEO reportedly not too happy with VA 'not pulling their weight' in the JV. As posted up, the too many cooks situation and the egos of the two CEOs at the time put a huge strain on that "relationship"

Source: Air New Zealand says “conscious uncoupling” with Virgin Australia first seen in 2015

VA's opposite experiences with their two JVs at the time (NZ and DL) and the current owners means they won't be putting in money to re-enter JVs with any of their current international partners in the short term.

 

[moa999]

who sits on the buy and sell side of companies the size of Virgin - they lack any attractive growth story. I’m not actually suggesting they enter long haul, I’m merely suggesting that the upside of any purchase of VA is limited. Some level of growth opportunities will need to be presented in a sale process

Albeit one could have said the same of GYG with its loss making overseas operations.. and yet look at its multiple, albeit a very small free float.

 

[pauly7]

Albeit one could have said the same of GYG with its loss making overseas operations.. and yet look at its multiple, albeit a very small free float.

OT I just have a feeling we are all going to be watching a 4 corners about that float and business at some point… something doesn’t smell right and it’s not their awful food

On topic - it will be interesting to see how all the airlines including Virgin get through the winter domestic season. You can see there’s been some quiet trimming and adjusting of schedules.. some even beyond the normal winter haircut.

 

[Must...Fly!]

On topic - it will be interesting to see how all the airlines including Virgin get through the winter domestic season

Agree, I think it will be a tough June/July/August. Perhaps not too much different to pre-covid but it's the first one where travel patterns will be closer to normal I think. The "catch up" trips people missed for years are not there.

 

[TMP]

I think this applies to not only VA but the long list of previous “No 2” carriers that tried to be Australia’s second-largest premium long haul international airline and failed.

Sorry, but which airline is our "premium" long haul international airline?

 

[Carrots]

Sorry, but which airline is our "premium" long haul international airline?

Singapore & Qatar.

 

[RooFlyer]

The Oz on-line has a story that IPO back on - before Christmas

Virgin Australia IPO now set for take off by Christmas

Bain Capital is understood to have put its initial public offering plans for Virgin Australia back on the runway, with the private equity firm’s advisers now angling for a listing by Christmas.

It comes as the Boston-based private equity firm is poised to appoint executive Paul Jones as the new chief executive for the $3bn carrier, according to sources, after he was tipped by The Australian earlier this month to be one of two candidates in the running.

Advisers ...

 

[muppet]

The Oz on-line has a story that IPO back on - before Christmas

Virgin Australia IPO now set for take off by Christmas



Advisers ...

Honestly, I have no sympathy for anyone who buys in. When was the last PE float that ended well?

But how to ensure my super fund doesn’t join in the money burning cult??

 

[Must...Fly!]

But how to ensure my super fund doesn’t join in the money burning cult??

Have a decent super fund. And don't worry about what they do. That's the whole point of having your money in a fund!

On a side note, for some reason this news and looking at my point balance made me slightly anxious.

 

[Doctore1003]

The Oz on-line has a story that IPO back on - before Christmas

Virgin Australia IPO now set for take off by Christmas



Advisers ...

“The understanding is that the move to accelerate the float plans comes after Guzman y Gomez soared by more than 30 per cent on the first day of trade for its IPO on Thursday.”

lol

Post automatically merged: Jun 25, 2024

Also: “Perhaps this time around, Virgin has a key cornerstone investor for the deal – potentially an offshore carrier.“
Qatar is mentioned.

 

[33kft]

“The understanding is that the move to accelerate the float plans comes after Guzman y Gomez soared by more than 30 per cent on the first day of trade for its IPO on Thursday.”

If this is serious, and who knows if it is, they're suggesting that it was possible to pivot to float an airline within 6 months in the space of 2-3 business days on the basis of a fast food company listing? Wild if true

 

[RSVKanga]

While Qatar Airways is the expected new owner of Virgin Australia, I’m a bit curious as to why the media is mentioning Alaska Airlines, a member of oneworld and an airline that QF has good relations with, as a potential buyer of VA.

While I don’t think Alaska acquiring Virgin would pose a serious threat to Australia’s sovereignty like what Qatar would do, it would still cause major instability in oneworld, and would still threaten QF’s security in the alliance as Qantas would ultimately have to compete against their own alliance on a domestic front. I’m not sure if AS is even willing to cross those red lines and intimidate a founding member of the alliance.

What would be the rationale for AS buying VA?


Singapore Airlines seems to be only the sane and sensible investor mentioned.

 

[jase05]

Singapore Airlines seems to be only the sane and sensible investor mentioned.

According to you.
How many times does SQ want to try and fail?
Let them stick to what they do best.
I do agree Alaska seems weird and not sure why they would do it.
Maybe there is someone else out there not mentioned already.
Either Qatar or United makes sense but time will tell

 

[HS-TQE]

Trying the same thing over and over and expecting different results applies to Singapore Airlines when it comes.to their dismal record in Australian investments going all the way back to the Ansett Australia days.

Their involvement in Virgin Atlantic (dismal losses/sold to Delta at a loss) and the NokScoot liquidation (through Scoot) also doesn't help.

A good case of "stick to your own backyard and do it well" applies here.

 

[MooTime]

Trying the same thing over and over and expecting different results applies to Singapore Airlines when it comes.to their dismal record in Australian investments going all the way back to the Ansett Australia days.

Their involvement in Virgin Atlantic (dismal losses/sold to Delta at a loss) and the NokScoot liquidation (through Scoot) also doesn't help.

A good case of "stick to your own backyard and do it well" applies here.

What about if SQ for argument sake had a member on the new VA senior management board, maybe COO for CFO, you that they then oversee the very inner workings, strategic planning, financials etc etc.
That would be what they or anybody else would be looking for Shirley?

Have they had that inner role in the past? Or just simply an investor? Here's our money, hoping for a return. In the past that is.