What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

[burmans]

With time and experience, I have noticed that even the experts can get it wrong.......

Actually there was a recent study which suggested economic "experts" not only can get it wrong but in fact are slightly worse at predictions than random chance.

 

[drross]

I thought the Euro would fall more but it's hardly done anything for our dollar 
If continuous worrying helps the dollar I am in

and now the Euro is up!! DAX at record levels... the world's gone mad

 

[Claudius]

My prediction is soon the Aussie dollar will be worth as much as a German Papiermark circa 1923. Seriously though I wouldn't be surprised to see it fall below 70 in the next few months and below 50 by the end of the year. Lower demand for LNG,iron ore, coal and Vegemite which will not be picked up by manufacturing no matter how low our currency goes means it won't find equilibrium until a new resources boom occurs or the national economy is reinvented.

 

[robd]

Wholesale rate this morning - Eeeeek...

 

[Cruiser Elite]

OZFOREX as od 1 min ago:

 

[robd]

OZFOREX as od 1 min ago:

View attachment 41364

Do you have trade re-finance facility? I often get FX companies trying to get me to switch, but it falls over because I need 180 day re-finance.

 

[Cruiser Elite]

We have zero finance facilities with anybody.

 

[robd]

We have zero finance facilities with anybody.

Lucky you Just another way we get stung by the big banks.

 

[NFF]

It's getting difficult to make long term plans given the uncertainties.

 

[defurax]

It's getting difficult to make long term plans given the uncertainties.

I've heard Russia will be quite affordable for the near future!
Or a nice Crimean spa retreat for 88 euros/night: http://www.radissonblu.com/resort-alushta

 

[Cruiser Elite]

It's getting difficult to make long term plans given the uncertainties.

Business or leisure plans?

 

[cove]

I get twitchy when the Australian dollar goes below 50 cents to the US dollar. If it does that I will need to figure out how to make US dollars to balance things up.
With the exchange rate at 79 cents and everything stays the same will mean it will take several million dollars extra to hold the same levels of inventory. Add in sales growth and that figure grows further. Lucky it's only money.

 

[PLANT]

AirBNB a room at home to an American Cove?

 

[NFF]

Business or leisure plans?

Leisure.

Now might be a good time to use gold as a hedge.

 

[cove]

Plant I was thinking of how to make a dollar in the US. It sure won't come from a term deposit at their rates.

 

[Cruiser Elite]

Well she certainly tumbled out of bed last night! Some info from Western Union Strategists:

The Australian dollar collapsed overnight as markets reacted to the huge jump in rate cut expectations seen in yesterday’s bond market trading.

The Australian bond market saw expectations of an RBA rate cut next Tuesday jump to 82% from 7% only 24 hours earlier.

The trigger was an article from long-time business columnist Terry McCrann. McCrann was once seen as a key RBA mouthpiece and an article in yesterday’s Herald Sun saying that a rate cut was an “almost certainty” saw a massive move in rate cut expectations.

The move saw the AUDUSD plunge as the pair fell almost 200 points.

The Aussie also tumbled to new five-year lows versus the British pound.

We saw steep losses versus a rage of other currencies, with the AUD down 2.0% versus the Thai baht, losing 1.9% against the Euro and down 1.7% against the Chinese yuan.

The Aussie also fell 1.5% against the Singapore dollar and lost 1.0% against the Japanese yen.

While the market believes a rate cut is a near certainty, analysts remain divided, with only a minority expecting a rate cut this year – let alone at the next meeting.

Today, PPI, or producer prices, will be key. This week’s consumer price index (CPI) was higher than expected and saw the AUDUSD jump more than 100 points. Today’s number could see a major reaction in either direction.

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[mushez]

I recon it will bottom out at $0.77 and bounce back to stabilize around $.83-.85

Got down to $0.772 overnight - looks like we got to the bottom I was guessing it would.

With China slowing down from tomorrow for CNY for the month, we should see it slowly bounce back over the coming month, and around 25th Feb hit again when China gears up once more for a new year. But then again someone else in the world might cough and that all goes out the window.

The past week has seen a lot of importers/buyers frantically sending USD to China to ensure their goods get finished and shipped before they close for CNY.

 

[robd]

Got down to $0.772 overnight - looks like we got to the bottom I was guessing it would.

With China slowing down from tomorrow for CNY for the month, we should see it slowly bounce back over the coming month, and around 25th Feb hit again when China gears up once more for a new year. But then again someone else in the world might cough and that all goes out the window.

The past week has seen a lot of importers/buyers frantically sending USD to China to ensure their goods get finished and shipped before they close for CNY.

But what happens if the RBA drops the interest rate?

 

[JohnK]

I can wait until 25 February. Desperate times.

 

[mushez]

I can wait until 25 February. Desperate times.

Don't wait until 25th Feb - get in around 20th or 21st, as that will be just as good in my experience. 25th when China cranks up again, there will be a run for a few days and will drop 2-3 cents normally, before "normally" bouncing back 2-3 weeks later.

You are arguing over a few cents though, be it .78 or .82 over the coming month - might see a quick peak at .84 if you are quick - but doubt it.