What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

[Cruiser Elite]

We have already implemented some pricing increases - we have a container due into port in MEL tomorrow 25th - into warehouse 28th I think - 30% pre-sold at $1,999ea which was where we wanted to price at - but final pmt on this shipment at .8233 which was a tad lower than we wanted / anticipated so balance of container priced at $2,099ea = price increase 4.952%. Had we paid todays rate .7916 then we would be pricing this shipment at $2,199ea = price increase 10%.

 

[cove]

Ouch lucky it's only money!
We took up several shots at .8240 before this most recent drop.
I always thought we could become poor by international exchange rates sometime and I guess we are now heading into a new sinkhole.

 

[clazman]

ABC news predicted .65 by June on current market forecasts .... think if it gets there we will all be holidaying at home or finding a US soup kitchen

 

[amaroo]

LOTFAP status runs and bulk mile purchases are starting look a tinge expensive.

 

[cove]

I started thinking that it would cost more but when you fly on points/miles it is more an issue of when you get to the US and stay for a few weeks.
Los Angeles food is still close to half Perth prices so as long as we don't go sub 0.500 we will still be ok.
A family member thought 0.37 would be a good target for our dollar to make our real estate prices more normal by the rest of the world pricing.

 

[Awesom Andy]

ABC news predicted .65 by June on current market forecasts .... think if it gets there we will all be holidaying at home or finding a US soup kitchen

When they say it's going to be somewhere by market forecasts, does it mean they simply extrapolate the current chart and then report on a number they like a little down the track?

 

[clazman]

Personally can't see it getting there, but in the current environment anything is possible.

 

[robd]

Personally can't see it getting there, but in the current environment anything is possible.

Way to sit on the fence

We get reports from the bank guesstimating where they reckon the dollar will be at a certain time - I don't think they've been right once.

My immediate question for next Tuesday is, do I take out forward exchange contracts? Six months out the rate on an FEC could be 3 points off. But sometimes it bounces back a little before heading lower down.

Who has the crystal ball?

 

[Awesom Andy]

Way to sit on the fence 

We get reports from the bank guesstimating where they reckon the dollar will be at a certain time - I don't think they've been right once.

My immediate question for next Tuesday is, do I take out forward exchange contracts? Six months out the rate on an FEC could be 3 points off. But sometimes it bounces back a little before heading lower down.

Who has the crystal ball?

The person with the crystal ball is currently trading on the market and too busy to post here.

 

[clazman]

I have bought @.83 so winning at the moment...

 

[JohnK]

Ouch lucky it's only money!
We took up several shots at .8240 before this most recent drop.
I always thought we could become poor by international exchange rates sometime and I guess we are now heading into a new sinkhole.

It's not only money.

I brought AUD with me for next round of IVF. There's been an ~4% devaluation the past couple of days.

The whole currency market is a joke and the Australian Reserve bank should stop interfering trying to lower the AUD.

 

[cove]

A child costs about $500,000 to get grown up JohnK (in Australia). Probably quite a bit less in Thailand I would think.

 

[JohnK]

A child costs about $500,000 to get grown up JohnK (in Australia). Probably quite a bit less in Thailand I would think.

And my child would grow up in Australia. Lose both ways?

 

[moa999]

It's not only money.

I brought AUD with me for next round of IVF. There's been an ~4% devaluation the past couple of days.

The whole currency market is a joke and the Australian Reserve bank should stop interfering trying to lower the AUD.

I don't think the Reserve is doing anything.

This is all the US Dollar improving as people get bullish and the economy (short memories of all the money they have just printed).

Aussie has actually been strengthening against the Euro.

 

[robd]

And my child would grow up in Australia. Lose both ways?

You will never lose having a child JohnK. It's a sure bet you'll get back more than it costs.

 

[whatmeworry]

Greece might be leaving the euro following their elections.
Euro hits 11-year low in wake of Greek election

 

[burmans]

Greece might be leaving the euro following their elections.
Euro hits 11-year low in wake of Greek election

I wish they would just get done with it, I'm sure the continuous worrying about this is worse than the fact.

 

[cove]

As long as it doesn't cause a banking collapse the Greeks can learn that drinking coffee is not actually working.
Then we have lots of folks who have Swiss Franc loans but earn Euros.
World deflation is crushing all the commodities so Australia is not in for an early recovery.

 

[marki]

I wish they would just get done with it, I'm sure the continuous worrying about this is worse than the fact.

I thought the Euro would fall more but it's hardly done anything for our dollar
If continuous worrying helps the dollar I am in

 

[marki]

The person with the crystal ball is currently trading on the market and too busy to post here.

With time and experience, I have noticed that even the experts can get it wrong.......