What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

[cove]

My brother has been saying 0.37 when it was over 0.90 so he isn't even half right so far but he thought we could get down there if commodities collapse.

 

[JohnK]

Don't wait until 25th Feb - get in around 20th or 21st, as that will be just as good in my experience. 25th when China cranks up again, there will be a run for a few days and will drop 2-3 cents normally, before "normally" bouncing back 2-3 weeks later.

You are arguing over a few cents though, be it .78 or .82 over the coming month - might see a quick peak at .84 if you are quick - but doubt it.

Thanks for the insight. In my opinion 4c difference buys a decent amount of THB that we need. Should have exchanged at 26.57 Wednesday last week. Then it nose dived. Silly mistake. Should have known better or at least hedged.

 

[Cruiser Elite]

Slightly OT but has been mentioned a number of times in this thread is pressure on Aust real estate prices from Chinese buyers.

Had dinner and drinks after tennis with a legal mate last night whose company has opened an office in Shanghai solely to service said buyers. They originally planed to have 2 to 4 staff - within 2 years already have 20+ staff and need to add more.

Still just insatiable demand they are experiencing - biggest difficulty they have is actually finding suitable properties here in Oz - inner city / access to public transport etc. He did point out on Feb 1 2013 for a Chinese buyer to purchase a A$1mil property they needed to spend CNY6.5mil / Feb 1 2014 CNY5.4mil / Feb 1 2015 CNY4.8mil = 26% less.

 

[drsmithy]

Slightly OT but has been mentioned a number of times in this thread is pressure on Aust real estate prices from Chinese buyers.

Had dinner and drinks after tennis with a legal mate last night whose company has opened an office in Shanghai solely to service said buyers. They originally planed to have 2 to 4 staff - within 2 years already have 20+ staff and need to add more.

Still just insatiable demand they are experiencing - biggest difficulty they have is actually finding suitable properties here in Oz - inner city / access to public transport etc. He did point out on Feb 1 2013 for a Chinese buyer to purchase a A$1mil property they needed to spend CNY6.5mil / Feb 1 2014 CNY5.4mil / Feb 1 2015 CNY4.8mil = 26% less.

The gross negligence by the FIRB on this issue is disgraceful, especially given how much of that Chinese money is probably of dubious origin.

 

[moa999]

Also means however that any Chinese who have invested here over the last few years (including the developers) has lost heaps on the fx rate

 

[drsmithy]

Also means however that any Chinese who have invested here over the last few years (including the developers) has lost heaps on the fx rate

The objective for people with dirty money is to turn it into clean money and real assets. The premium for doing this can be high.

Half of a lot is still much more than nothing [and a gaol or death sentence].

EDIT: Heck, even the honest money in a place like China has a reason to feel scared everything they've worked for could be disappeared if it remains there, and have sufficient reason to justify losing a lot of it to gt the rest out.

 

[burmans]

The gross negligence by the FIRB on this issue is disgraceful, especially given how much of that Chinese money is probably of dubious origin.

Personally I don't buy into this dirty money theory (though I'm sure there is some) when there is a much simpler and more logical reason for Chinese to want to move money out of China. Despite all indications to the contrary China is still communist and communists don't believe in personal property. They buy property outside China because they never know when rules will change and their hard earned will be taken. They are hardly the first group of people to do this over the years.

 

[drsmithy]

Personally I don't buy into this dirty money theory (though I'm sure there is some) when there is a much simpler and more logical reason for Chinese to want to move money out of China. Despite all indications to the contrary China is still communist and communists don't believe in personal property. They buy property outside China because they never know when rules will change and their hard earned will be taken. They are hardly the first group of people to do this over the years.

Agreed (and edited my comment above to reflect this just before you posted), but I think there is still a lot of dirty money being dumped into Australian property. Enforcement is so lax (and that's ignoring the active selling off of our assets) they'd be mad not to.

 

[amaroo]

LOL - Cyprus and Russians come to mind.

 

[JohnK]

Slightly OT but has been mentioned a number of times in this thread is pressure on Aust real estate prices from Chinese buyers.

Ask the Kiwis if they need foreign Chinese investment?

Property in Australia should only be able to be purchased by Australian citizens. And those 10 pound Poms who have been here for 50 years would be excluded if they have not yet taken up citizenship.

I cannot buy property in China, USA, Switzerland etc. We don't need their money.

 

[burmans]

Ask the Kiwis if they need foreign Chinese investment?

Property in Australia should only be able to be purchased by Australian citizens. And those 10 pound Poms who have been here for 50 years would be excluded if they have not yet taken up citizenship.

I cannot buy property in China, USA, Switzerland etc. We don't need their money.

Xenophobia is always such an attractive thing!

 

[Isochronous]

Ask the Kiwis if they need foreign Chinese investment?

Property in Australia should only be able to be purchased by Australian citizens. And those 10 pound Poms who have been here for 50 years would be excluded if they have not yet taken up citizenship.

I cannot buy property in China, USA, Switzerland etc. We don't need their money.

Any Britons who came here before 1986 are legally equivalent to Australians. Why disenfranchise them? There's too much Anglophobia being whipped up by the left.

 

[drsmithy]

Ask the Kiwis if they need foreign Chinese investment?


Property in Australia should only be able to be purchased by Australian citizens. And those 10 pound Poms who have been here for 50 years would be excluded if they have not yet taken up citizenship.


I cannot buy property in China, USA, Switzerland etc. We don't need their money.

Unfortunately, 50+ years of CADs indicates we *do* need their money, and even if we didn't, the prevailing political and economic philosophy for decades has been to sell anything and everything off in the name of "free markets" and "free trade".

Xenophobia is always such an attractive thing!

That's not a definition of Xenophobia with which I am familiar.

Any Britons who came here before 1986 are legally equivalent to Australians. Why disenfranchise them? There's too much Anglophobia being whipped up by the left.

I'd argue that they should be naturalised now that there is no reason not to be (ie: previous constraints around holding multiple citizenships removed). My parents did it ~15 years ago not long after the law was changed.

WTF is "Anglophobia" ?

 

[JohnK]

Xenophobia is always such an attractive thing!

Are you afraid?

 

[Cruiser Elite]

Also means however that any Chinese who have invested here over the last few years (including the developers) has lost heaps on the fx rate

Yes in our eyes they have - but not looking through Chinese eyes - no freehold with Chinese real estate but rather 50 year leases - so when they can actually purchase freehold they consider it my children's children's children's investment - 100 years out.

 

[PLANT]

Cruiser you can throw a 1 million $ my way.... Heck their 26% off and I become a millionair... Done deal

 

[cove]

There may be an interest rate cut really soon in Australia. If that happens I think I will lock in a strip of low interest rates to offset the pain of a low Aussie dollar and the cash flow implications.

 

[codash1099]

There may be an interest rate cut really soon in Australia. If that happens I think I will lock in a strip of low interest rates to offset the pain of a low Aussie dollar and the cash flow implications.

Really soon!!

 

[knasty]

My building society actually raised their fixed rates recently. Having said that it was from 3.79 to 3.99% 1 year fixed so can't complain too much.

 

[Warks]

Just booked a few flights in the USA for June-July. Now if I'd booked them five months ago when I booked the SYD-LAX flights...