SYD
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One day or a week or a month? etc
You’d be expecting cheaper fares by now if there was a pattern eg UA dumping ex China capacity into Oz.
One day or a week or a month? etc
As I mentioned, forward loads are looking pretty poor - particularly to the US. Both LAX and JFK are not looking good. Not surprising given QF's crazy high fares on these routes.One day or a week or a month? etc
You’d be expecting cheaper fares by now if there was a pattern eg UA dumping ex China capacity into Oz.
Technically it's not a double status credit promotion. Yes, that is part of the promotion but in the last few years it was a choice between double points or double status credits. I suspect for casual flyers the former will likely be more appealing than the latter.Second, the only people who give two hoots about DSC's are not the casual flyer, but those with status, or interested enough to go higher - so either invested in the ecosystem already (and probably less likely to leave it with the lure of easier status). The customers chasing status are already tied in to one degree or another.
Except in 2022 when they had NZ J fares on sale and one could easily earn nearly 500 status credits for $1100 flying to NZ in J return. Never say never! Especially if loads are low enough.DSC promos rarely occur with sale promos, so people partaking are often paying top dollar for their chosen routes.
Correct. The past two years travel consisted many of people who were forced home and seeking to scratch that travel itch. Now with revenge travel largely over and the Australian government doing their level best to discourage it (i.e. by removing travel subsidies provided to the airlines to keep fares low and raising the cost to renew an Australian passport to eye watering levels) appetite may very well be waning.I think international demand is starting to drop off which is no surprise given the wider cost of living crisis, and you'd think the initial pent up demand from covid has probably finished its initial surge given everyone has had 18+ months to travel. We've seen this with the QF changes to US services later this year.
I don't see how they can reduce capacity. Qantas was in crisis mode the past two years hiring as many pilots and staff as they can given the mess they made with staffing during COVID. Same thing with aircraft, heck they've got a contract with FinnAir to fly some wide bodies for a few years. Add to that the orders they've got from Boeing for the 787 and Airbus for the A320 family and Bombardier C Series in which they will be introducing new aircraft on a nearly weekly basis to their fleet and I just don't see it happening. What are they gonna do with the spare aircraft and crew? Wages and leases don't pay for themselves!I don't think they'll drop the fares, they'll manage by reducing capacity first, and things like DSC might help to fill it out - if things are still bad in the months ahead we'll see some good sales.
One day or a week or a month? etc
You’d be expecting cheaper fares by now if there was a pattern eg UA dumping ex China capacity into Oz.
As I mentioned, forward loads are looking pretty poor - particularly to the US. Both LAX and JFK are not looking good. Not surprising given QF's crazy high fares on these routes.
I wouldn't be surprised if a DSC is offered as a sweetener alongside the devaluation, particularly if the devaluation hits the most loyal members the hardest, because they'll be the most assuaged by the DSC.Qantas did flag a shake up of the Frequent Flyer program for “early 2024” so that could throw a spanner in the works with DSC timing.
Strap yourself in!So when do we bust out the DSC prediction thread. I remember last year's one went for a while with the rumours.
Last year was later than expected, worked out well for me but as others have said, depends how revenue and forward bookings look. One argument for earlier could be the final expiration of the last COVID extensions for this with membership years in the first half?I think it's more Mar/Apr than Feb/Mar, but we shall see.
Normally has followed a sale?There's an Explore More sale on now, so perhaps after that?
It usually doesn't coincideNormally has followed a sale?
I wouldn't be surprised if a DSC is offered as a sweetener alongside the devaluation, particularly if the devaluation hits the most loyal members the hardest, because they'll be the most assuaged by the DSC.
Patience, grasshopper.What devaluation?
Patience, grasshopper.
You haven't been following closely enough.The trend in global programs is up, not down, following intense public and government pressure. It's also a period where airlines have been their most profitable. The recent AA changes seem rather good. American AAdvantage Unveils Positive Changes For 2024. It would be insane for QF to do otherwise.
The hints are all there for everyone to see. Simpler and fairer all over again.Those were initiatives that Qantas could implement in the short term. But the airline is also working on longer-term “improvements” to the program that should make it more sustainable and attractive to members.
the time to devalue is not when your biggest competitor has just kicked a huge own goal.
Delta's devaluation of the mileage program isn't something new, as their move to dynamic award pricing has been something they have had for many years. Yes it does mean that you have access to every single Delta flight but it also means you'll easily spend hundreds of thousands or even millions of points to fly business class between the US and many destinations.The dominant market player in the US, Delta, launched the biggest devaluation in its program's history, so big it had to walk back half of it due to the immense public backlash.
I wouldn't call it a devaluation. They are simply encouraging their loyal executive club flyers to think twice about booking BA. Maybe it means flying QF instead of BA to SIN, for instance.The dominant market play in the UK, BA, launched a major devaluation with the switch to revenue-based earning, crushing the points earning of top tier elites on cash fares in particular.
I wouldn't call the changes at Virgin a devaluation either. Heck, I snapped up seats from PER to SYD for 11,900 points with them. I'd challenge anyone on this forum to find comparable award seats at that price with Qantas.Qantas' main domestic competitor, VA, devalued its award chart with tiered pricing that reduces the ability to get outsized value from VA award flights by roughly tying award prices to cash prices.
I'm talking about the devaluation of elite status qualification requirements, not mileage redemptions.Delta's devaluation of the mileage program isn't something new, as their move to dynamic award pricing has been something they have had for many years. Yes it does mean that you have access to every single Delta flight but it also means you'll easily spend hundreds of thousands or even millions of points to fly business class between the US and many destinations.
A change that encourages people to book with competitors is a devaluation.I wouldn't call it a devaluation. They are simply encouraging their loyal executive club flyers to think twice about booking BA. Maybe it means flying QF instead of BA to SIN, for instance.
A devaluation does not mean the elimination of all sweet spots or that no new sweet spots are created. You have to assess a program's value by looking at it holistically.I wouldn't call the changes at Virgin a devaluation either. Heck, I snapped up seats from PER to SYD for 11,900 points with them. I'd challenge anyone on this forum to find comparable award seats at that price with Qantas.
Delta's devaluation of the mileage program isn't something new, as their move to dynamic award pricing has been something they have had for many years. Yes it does mean that you have access to every single Delta flight but it also means you'll easily spend hundreds of thousands or even millions of points to fly business class between the US and many destinations.
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And help with the Great Leap Forward and upward to the next tierGetting in early with my prediction. Qantas to drop us a DSC on 29 Feb to take the edge off working for free that day*
* kinda, sorta