Will Qantas Offer Double Status Credits before Mooted FF Program Changes in 2024?

[SYD]

LAX

One day or a week or a month? etc

You’d be expecting cheaper fares by now if there was a pattern eg UA dumping ex China capacity into Oz.

 

[aus_flyer]

One day or a week or a month? etc

You’d be expecting cheaper fares by now if there was a pattern eg UA dumping ex China capacity into Oz.

As I mentioned, forward loads are looking pretty poor - particularly to the US. Both LAX and JFK are not looking good. Not surprising given QF's crazy high fares on these routes.

 

[kangarooflyer88]

Second, the only people who give two hoots about DSC's are not the casual flyer, but those with status, or interested enough to go higher - so either invested in the ecosystem already (and probably less likely to leave it with the lure of easier status). The customers chasing status are already tied in to one degree or another.

Technically it's not a double status credit promotion. Yes, that is part of the promotion but in the last few years it was a choice between double points or double status credits. I suspect for casual flyers the former will likely be more appealing than the latter.

DSC promos rarely occur with sale promos, so people partaking are often paying top dollar for their chosen routes.

Except in 2022 when they had NZ J fares on sale and one could easily earn nearly 500 status credits for $1100 flying to NZ in J return. Never say never! Especially if loads are low enough.

I think international demand is starting to drop off which is no surprise given the wider cost of living crisis, and you'd think the initial pent up demand from covid has probably finished its initial surge given everyone has had 18+ months to travel. We've seen this with the QF changes to US services later this year.

Correct. The past two years travel consisted many of people who were forced home and seeking to scratch that travel itch. Now with revenge travel largely over and the Australian government doing their level best to discourage it (i.e. by removing travel subsidies provided to the airlines to keep fares low and raising the cost to renew an Australian passport to eye watering levels) appetite may very well be waning.

I don't think they'll drop the fares, they'll manage by reducing capacity first, and things like DSC might help to fill it out - if things are still bad in the months ahead we'll see some good sales.

I don't see how they can reduce capacity. Qantas was in crisis mode the past two years hiring as many pilots and staff as they can given the mess they made with staffing during COVID. Same thing with aircraft, heck they've got a contract with FinnAir to fly some wide bodies for a few years. Add to that the orders they've got from Boeing for the 787 and Airbus for the A320 family and Bombardier C Series in which they will be introducing new aircraft on a nearly weekly basis to their fleet and I just don't see it happening. What are they gonna do with the spare aircraft and crew? Wages and leases don't pay for themselves!

 

[justinbrett]

One day or a week or a month? etc

You’d be expecting cheaper fares by now if there was a pattern eg UA dumping ex China capacity into Oz.

It's definitely light loads. Although U0, most days have X9.

As I mentioned, forward loads are looking pretty poor - particularly to the US. Both LAX and JFK are not looking good. Not surprising given QF's crazy high fares on these routes.

Common for this time of year.

I will say it looks like QF has forgot to manage pricing. All the US carriers have fares ~A$1200 return next week. QF is at least double.

 

[Doctore1003]

Qantas did flag a shake up of the Frequent Flyer program for “early 2024” so that could throw a spanner in the works with DSC timing.

 

[levelnine]

Qantas did flag a shake up of the Frequent Flyer program for “early 2024” so that could throw a spanner in the works with DSC timing.

I wouldn't be surprised if a DSC is offered as a sweetener alongside the devaluation, particularly if the devaluation hits the most loyal members the hardest, because they'll be the most assuaged by the DSC.

 

[exceladdict]

So when do we bust out the DSC prediction thread. I remember last year's one went for a while with the rumours.

Strap yourself in!

I think it's more Mar/Apr than Feb/Mar, but we shall see.

Last year was later than expected, worked out well for me but as others have said, depends how revenue and forward bookings look. One argument for earlier could be the final expiration of the last COVID extensions for this with membership years in the first half?

There's an Explore More sale on now, so perhaps after that?

Normally has followed a sale?

 

[AIRwin]

Normally has followed a sale?

It usually doesn't coincide

 

[justinbrett]

I wouldn't be surprised if a DSC is offered as a sweetener alongside the devaluation, particularly if the devaluation hits the most loyal members the hardest, because they'll be the most assuaged by the DSC.

What devaluation?

 

[levelnine]

What devaluation?

Patience, grasshopper.

 

[justinbrett]

Patience, grasshopper.

“Last month, we brought forward the release of 35,000 reward seats – seats you can secure with the least number of points – for members. On top of that, we added a further 6,000 rewards seats to Europe for the next summer peak,” Hudson said.

“At the same time, we offered a 50 per cent discount on the number of points required for any Premium international seat on any Qantas flight in our system.”

Those were initiatives that Qantas could implement in the short term. But the airline is also working on longer-term “improvements” to the program that should make it more sustainable and attractive to members.

“These [recent initiatives] are things we’ve been able to do quickly, but we’ve been working on more permanent improvements to Frequent Flyer for several months that we look forward to sharing early next year,” Hudson added.

The trend in global programs is up, not down, following intense public and government pressure. It's also a period where airlines have been their most profitable. The recent AA changes seem rather good. American AAdvantage Unveils Positive Changes For 2024. It would be insane for QF to do otherwise.

 

[levelnine]

The trend in global programs is up, not down, following intense public and government pressure. It's also a period where airlines have been their most profitable. The recent AA changes seem rather good. American AAdvantage Unveils Positive Changes For 2024. It would be insane for QF to do otherwise.

You haven't been following closely enough.

The dominant market player in the US, Delta, launched the biggest devaluation in its program's history, so big it had to walk back half of it due to the immense public backlash. That's what explains AA's moves — the time to devalue is not when your biggest competitor has just kicked a huge own goal. Though most commentators expect they'll devalue partner redemptions this year as they are simply too good to be sustained.

The dominant market play in the UK, BA, launched a major devaluation with the switch to revenue-based earning, crushing the points earning of top tier elites on cash fares in particular.

Qantas' main domestic competitor, VA, devalued its award chart with tiered pricing that reduces the ability to get outsized value from VA award flights by roughly tying award prices to cash prices.

Those were initiatives that Qantas could implement in the short term. But the airline is also working on longer-term “improvements” to the program that should make it more sustainable and attractive to members.

The hints are all there for everyone to see. Simpler and fairer all over again.

What makes a program more sustainable? Improved profitability for the airline running it.

What makes a program attractive to members? Improved award availability. How do you achieve that without undermining profitability?

 

[justinbrett]

the time to devalue is not when your biggest competitor has just kicked a huge own goal.

And also when you've been the subject of a senate inquiry and a lengthy PR battle.

No point arguing, let's just wait and see.

 

[33kft]

Getting in early with my prediction. Qantas to drop us a DSC on 29 Feb to take the edge off working for free that day*
* kinda, sorta

 

[kangarooflyer88]

The dominant market player in the US, Delta, launched the biggest devaluation in its program's history, so big it had to walk back half of it due to the immense public backlash.

Delta's devaluation of the mileage program isn't something new, as their move to dynamic award pricing has been something they have had for many years. Yes it does mean that you have access to every single Delta flight but it also means you'll easily spend hundreds of thousands or even millions of points to fly business class between the US and many destinations.

The dominant market play in the UK, BA, launched a major devaluation with the switch to revenue-based earning, crushing the points earning of top tier elites on cash fares in particular.

I wouldn't call it a devaluation. They are simply encouraging their loyal executive club flyers to think twice about booking BA. Maybe it means flying QF instead of BA to SIN, for instance.

Qantas' main domestic competitor, VA, devalued its award chart with tiered pricing that reduces the ability to get outsized value from VA award flights by roughly tying award prices to cash prices.

I wouldn't call the changes at Virgin a devaluation either. Heck, I snapped up seats from PER to SYD for 11,900 points with them. I'd challenge anyone on this forum to find comparable award seats at that price with Qantas.

 

[levelnine]

Delta's devaluation of the mileage program isn't something new, as their move to dynamic award pricing has been something they have had for many years. Yes it does mean that you have access to every single Delta flight but it also means you'll easily spend hundreds of thousands or even millions of points to fly business class between the US and many destinations.

I'm talking about the devaluation of elite status qualification requirements, not mileage redemptions.

I wouldn't call it a devaluation. They are simply encouraging their loyal executive club flyers to think twice about booking BA. Maybe it means flying QF instead of BA to SIN, for instance.

A change that encourages people to book with competitors is a devaluation.

I wouldn't call the changes at Virgin a devaluation either. Heck, I snapped up seats from PER to SYD for 11,900 points with them. I'd challenge anyone on this forum to find comparable award seats at that price with Qantas.

A devaluation does not mean the elimination of all sweet spots or that no new sweet spots are created. You have to assess a program's value by looking at it holistically.

 

[RichardMEL]

Delta's devaluation of the mileage program isn't something new, as their move to dynamic award pricing has been something they have had for many years. Yes it does mean that you have access to every single Delta flight but it also means you'll easily spend hundreds of thousands or even millions of points to fly business class between the US and many destinations.

ie exactly what QFF has been doing for years via the "simpler and fairer" Any Seat Awards that many confuse with CR and complain that QF has jacked up the cost of CR's when they're looking at the ASA cost (or points plus pay with zero pay if you want to define it that way).

You're far too new to QFF to have enjoyed the days where ASA's were truly remarkable value for the kids playing the games back in the day - specially the FASA's and JASA's (and the round Australia rewards, which was a whole other thing). eg iirc the multiplier in points required for a J or F ASA was say 2-3x the CR cost, but of course was buying a revenue seat so also earned points and SC's so there actually WAS a real value proposition compared with the current levels. But I digress with fond memories....

However, the more recent DL devaluations involved elite qualifications via CC spend along with vastly changed goalposts. They walked back a bit of it, but they're all going that way and QFF won't be hugely far behind tbh - as often stated these programs long ago left the Flyer out of Frequent Flyer and it's all about the cash spend.

 

[AIRwin]

Getting in early with my prediction. Qantas to drop us a DSC on 29 Feb to take the edge off working for free that day*
* kinda, sorta

And help with the Great Leap Forward and upward to the next tier

 

[aussieinams]

Fingers crossed for DSC in March. I live in Europe and use the promo every year to help maintain Platinum, but sadly got burned this year as despite being a QF flight #, I flew Emirates to SYD which didn't qualify, and now I've just discovered QF1 is only considered 1 x eligible flight so I'm coming up short 1 flight. I planned to do a status run to Canberra this morning that then got cancelled... universe is telling me to stop chasing and maybe consider another carrier!!!

 

[kangarooflyer88]

Here's a question to consider that I haven't heard anyone ask: Will JetStar offer a double status credit promotion?