2016 US Presidential Election and Fallout

[Quickstatus]

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Yawn.......

Dont worry this is an urban myth

 

[Abdul_A350]

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

What's not bunking is Hilary's character - the lies and deceit go all the way back to the Watergate affair when working as a lawyer was sacked for "lies and deceit"

Not that again.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...inton-was-fired-during-the-watergate-inquiry/

 

[Deleted member]

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Day trading is a no no, Auditors are being banned and cautioned over lax audits, make sure your Investment strategy is VERY clear about what you can do, stuff it up and it could be the end of your smsf

don't think this is true. I certainly day trade. You just have to have a strategy that allows a small amount of day trading. The main criterion is that the purpose of your super fund is to provide a retirement income, there is nothing that says a small amount of day trading is at odds with that purpose.

Day traders if they do enough, can argue that it is a business and thus tax treatment is different to someone just investing, but
that doesn't mean that a bit of day trading automatically turns into a business. That's my understanding anyway and my very conservative accountant has never had a problem with it.

At the moment I am fully invested in long term stocks, so can sit on the sideline and enjoy the gyrations, but would love to have had some spare money yesterday - was a bit like being a kid in a lolly shop

 

[moa999]

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Disclosure, will he last the distance.

He'll be bulletproof when it comes to scandals and crisis's, as proven by the election campaign.
US presidents have an issue with being bulletproof however.

 

[moa999]

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Inauguration not till mid-Jan. Not sure if anyone can handle 7wks of drivel from the US press

 

[Hvr]

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Inauguration not till mid-Jan. Not sure if anyone can handle 7wks of drivel from the US press

We've had years of drivel from them and the Australian media so nothing will change.

Watch last night's Clarke and Dawe for an ongoing media strategy.

 

[RAM]

Re: The totally off-topic thread

Yeah, the calexit movement

Although it is oft said, if it were a country in it's own right it would have the sixth or seventh largest economy in the world almost as big as the UK.

Curious that it is over-represented by tax evasion (largest US companies named around the world are almost 92% Californian based - perhaps as California became the highest taxing (or top 3) US state in the late 80s.

Texas' GDP is around 1/3rd more than Australia's while we're at it. And they only have one star on their flag!

 

[Flying mermaid]

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Day trading is a no no, Auditors are being banned and cautioned over lax audits, make sure your Investment strategy is VERY clear about what you can do, stuff it up and it could be the end of your smsf

will definitely talk to my accountant next week . Audits are done independently - it has been some years since an audit could be done by the same accounting firm as does your tax return. My investment strategy is quite detailed....

 

[Flying mermaid]

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Day trading is a no no, Auditors are being banned and cautioned over lax audits, make sure your Investment strategy is VERY clear about what you can do, stuff it up and it could be the end of your smsf

Interestingly SMSFs are NOTprohibited from carrying on a business

https://www.ato.gov.au/super/self-managed-super-funds/investing/carrying-on-a-business-in-an-smsf/

It all comes down to the sole purpose test. My trading is a) allowed in my investment strategy. B) sole purpose of the super fund is to provide income for retirement, c). Is limited to 10% of the portfolio and happens irregularly so I really remain unconvinced......

 

[Pushka]

2016 US Presidential Election

The smsf is certainly allowed to be a business but the trustees must be seen as not being in that business with the smsf as it won't pass the sole purpose test. Or something.

But it sounds like you are covered FM. The investment plan documentation is the key.

 

[Quickstatus]

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Not that again.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...inton-was-fired-during-the-watergate-inquiry/

Yep it's an urban myth

 

[RAM]

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

This was a threat based on Chinese manipulation of their currency. Cant imagine it will be that popular in reality of those shopping in Walmart suddenly see their prices go up so wouldn't guarantee this happening exactly as Donald suggests. Much of what Donald has stated should be taken as a hardline bargaining position, exactly like the businessman he is. Doesn't mean he wont back down from these positions if he achieves his aims in other ways.

The mistake you are making is to take your experience in Australia and overlay it in the US.

Wage rates are a fraction for blue collar work in 'new factories/enterprises' and productivity is much higher.

Toyota pay rates can be 45% lower in their car factories in the same state as legacy GM plants. Many factories that were shut down and moved to Mexico when NAFTA started - have been returned to the US. That started within 5 yrs of NAFTA. However as they were 'officially' new factories they were no longer ruled by the legacy wage rates. Once coal seam gas aka fracking took off - plastic factories moved back to the US.

Over in the states a few weeks ago and visited Walmart amongst many other stores. Here's what I found when shopping (being sent by emails from family) for clothing, cosmetics, shoes, food, hardware, sunscreen, ....

• Did not find any food of any sort (frozen, packets of biscuits nor sweets) made in China. Mostly US then from Mexico, South & Central America, Israel, around half a dozen European countries
• One beach/rock sandal mad in China, otherwise everything else was USA, Mex, South A, Europe, Philippines (should have been earlier in list), Taiwan
• Clothing - Bangladesh, USA, Pakistan, Mexico, not one item (T-shirts, blouses, shorts, skirts, towels) made in China.
• Cosmetics - nothing from China amongst name brands.
• Sunscreens/after sun - USA mainly (especially the Hawaiian Aloe Vera Gel worth its weight in gold).

I think Duerte in the Phillipines may need to look at where a large proportion of their exports end up.

HUGE move in Hawaii for 1) buy Hawaiian if not available 2) Buy USA.

You get paid 5 cents per re-usable bag you bring to use. No charge (at most places) for a plastic bag but more frequently they're brown paper handle bags.

Total US imports are around $2,500 billion USD.

Take out consumer electronics + machinery and even each of the remaining 8 of the top ten imports from China make up less than 1% of total US imports respectively. As a proportion of retail sales or sales of that category they are not big. The US is way more important to China than China is to the US (other than a buyer of US debt). The EU is more important (& significantly more dependent on China) as a destination for Chinese exports..



From an Australian perspective up to 80%+ for some categories are imported from China. Seen where the National Biscuit Company of America makes its products sold in Australia?

China for most...

Perhaps you know it better as Nabisco...

Nabisco's plant in Chicago, a 1,800,000-square-foot (170,000 m[SUP]2[/SUP]) production facility at 7300 S. Kedzie Avenue, is the largest bakery in the world,[SUP][2][/SUP] employing more than 1,200[SUP][2][/SUP] workers and producing around 320 million pounds of snack foods annually.

Or in Australian parlance 121,200 kg of biscuits per worker. AKA 600,000+ 200 gram packets of biscuits a worker...

China has some competition in the States. Especially if Chinese producers are not allowed to dump the toxic waste/by-products directly (untreated) into the local rivers. A Chinese T-shirt manufacturer typically produced 500,000 T-shirts per worker per year. Cheap labour virtually makes no difference to the cost of production. The machinery is all US, Swiss or German. The electricity price is relatively the same, even the land prices are now coming to match what is available in the more depressed (rust belt) states.

The only major cost advantage is the lack of costs for pollution and that time-bomb is ticking much louder these days with over 85% of Chinese rivers contaminated. Some to the point, in the West, that up to 10-15km distance either side downstream from certain factories the toxic fumes from the river have killed off every living plant.

Donations to the one political party are a major cost in these cases... Sometimes they are fatally expensive.

 

[Flying mermaid]

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

The smsf is certainly allowed to be a business but the trustees must be seen as not being in that business with the smsf as it won't pass the sole purpose test. Or something.

But it sounds like you are covered FM. The investment plan documentation is the key.

I will be having an in depth discussion - we retirees can't take chances with our super funds....

 

[RAM]

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Such a huge backlash. Clinton won the popular vote. Trump's victory is a quirk of electoral college maths. Nothing more.

Does not really stack up...

Or do you mean backlash against Saint Hillary? Backlash compared with people who voted Democrat for Obama in 2012?

If you have time go through the Pew exit poll analysis.

Curious tidbit that no US nor Australian media are reporting (cannot think why not).

Roughly three million fewer American women voted for Saint Hillary the robbed - than voted for Obama in 2012.

... over 2.9m fewer men (misogynist red necks must be supporting Obama but not Hillary)

Trump that!

 

[Hvr]

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

The next US President wasn't the only matter voted on last Tuesday. Some other things on the ballot papers were:

[h=2]Death penalty[/h]Nebraska and Oklahoma voters endorsed death-penalty measures, while voters in California were still considering whether to ban it entirely or just reform it, via a pair of measures that both appeared headed for approval. Nebraska's vote came after lawmakers repealed the state's death penalty in 2015; Tuesday's vote restored it.

Recreational use of marijuan_ was passed in 8 states including CA and Washington DC (and we all know that's not a state).

Californian voters declined to make condom use compulsory in adult films. I guess they don't like rubber necking?

Sheriff Joe Arpaio was finally voted out of office.

 

[drron]

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Clinton was ahead in the popular vote nationally by 200000.She won California by 2.5 million votes.
So if California exits Trump won the popular vote.

 

[moa999]

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Oh well at least the CAs have their dope for the next 4yrs.

While Clinton is ahead in popular vote (by 200k) still lots of votes to count.

Much like Aussie lower house, some states/seats are more important than others as they can swing the result.

 

[Cool Cat Phil]

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Meanwhile a Scottish paper has their say.

Nothing beats trashy British Tabloid newspapers like The Star , The Sun and the Daily Record for a good old laugh reading over fabricated scandals and poor journalism.

 

[burmans]

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Take out consumer electronics + machinery and even each of the remaining 8 of the top ten imports from China make up less than 1% of total US imports respectively. As a proportion of retail sales or sales of that category they are not big. The US is way more important to China than China is to the US (other than a buyer of US debt). The EU is more important (& significantly more dependent on China) as a destination for Chinese exports.

Long post so probably too much to respond too, but picking this bit in particular, if the EU is more important than US for Chinese exports then it doesn't seem as big a threat as Trump is making it seem like.

 

[dajop]

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

then it doesn't seem as big a threat as Trump is making it seem like.

The facts are not important, the only fact that matters is that it is perceived as a big threat. The perception amongst the former workers in large parts of US are that China workers are taking their jobs. Perceptions matter, facts are largely irrelevant in 2016.

Interestingly some of the farm sector have significant concerns that any trade spat with China will suppress commodity (read corn) prices and reduce exports to China. Very sensitive sector and may moderate the more extreme elements of any isolationist policy that takes root.