Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[nutwood]

That word 'failure' again. But which model (as in "a failed model") are you referring to? NSW's? WA's? QLD's Tas'? They are all different approaches or 'models'. Many complants here about inconsistant approaches of the states. So which model has failed?

And again, my definition of "countrywide" is clearly different from yours.

I would say we're in the position of having won the several battles but are in danger of losing the war.
Absence of central leadership allowed the Premiers to take a central role (and yes, I know Health is a State responsibility). This may have been advantageous in the early stages but they are now painted into a bunch of different corners. The State approach is hugely popular with the various State electorates, so who's going to be the first to take a more pragmatic approach? First State to accept any community transmission will be a pariah.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I would say we're in the position of having won the several battles but are in danger of losing the war.
Absence of central leadership allowed the Premiers to take a central role (and yes, I know Health is a State responsibility). This may have been advantageous in the early stages but they are now painted into a bunch of different corners. The State approach is hugely popular with the various State electorates, so who's going to be the first to take a more pragmatic approach? First State to accept any community transmission will be a pariah.

NSW almost got there - if it wasn't for the low vaccination rate and relatively high ICU and ventilator numbers that were a major ballast - to accepting any community transmission

 

[antycbr]

I would say we're in the position of having won the several battles but are in danger of losing the war.
Absence of central leadership allowed the Premiers to take a central role (and yes, I know Health is a State responsibility). This may have been advantageous in the early stages but they are now painted into a bunch of different corners. The State approach is hugely popular with the various State electorates, so who's going to be the first to take a more pragmatic approach? First State to accept any community transmission will be a pariah.

Oddly my money is on Vic and NSW agreeing to go together. Dan is making pragmatic noises since coming back from leave, even going so far as to say we are not shutting down for those who refuse to protect themselves. The ACT as the West Berlin of Australia will have to go with whatever NSW agrees to do. The rest, who knows.

 

[RooFlyer]

I would say we're in the position of having won the several battles but are in danger of losing the war.
Absence of central leadership allowed the Premiers to take a central role (and yes, I know Health is a State responsibility). This may have been advantageous in the early stages but they are now painted into a bunch of different corners. The State approach is hugely popular with the various State electorates, so who's going to be the first to take a more pragmatic approach? First State to accept any community transmission will be a pariah.

I'm just more optimistic. I don't believe in 'zero' and have supported NSW's approach and continue to do so, in spite of the present outbreak. NSW has, if not explicitly then implicitly, accepted a certain amount of community transmission, haven't they? They, like Vic before them have been a bit unlucky combined with some inadequate practices and decisions. But as the virus mutates, everyone has to adapt practices and its a judgment as to when a new type of call is needed. We have still done way better than virtually anywhere else - including the oft-mentioned England.

You and I are both in Tas and its inevitable that we'll get an outbreak. We are a bit fortunate that our vaccination rates are higher than other states (or at least they have been) and its a bit easier to compartmentalise and genuinely isolate regions for lockdowns. If there is a community case, I expect the lockdown will be swift and severe! which will be good, becasue as we know, complacency is the norm here (or mostly).

 

[N860CR]

The zero suppression model has had times of failing, but vastly more often than not it has been successful.
Not sure you could dispute that, but focusing only when it has failed to point that out & go fishing when we are at zero is a little mischievous.

You're a bit all over the place there, but yes I can quite categorically say the "Zero" model has failed? Why? Because 18 months in we're not far off a national lockdown. Doesn't matter that we kicked the can down the road for a while, the net result is that we're back where we started.

That word 'failure' again. But which model (as in "a failed model") are you referring to? NSW's? WA's? QLD's Tas'? They are all different approaches or 'models'. Many complants here about inconsistant approaches of the states. So which model has failed?

And again, my definition of "countrywide" is clearly different from yours.

Realistically, each state has followed the same path. NSW may have taken a bit longer to be pushed there by other premiers, but the goal across all states is "Zero". The only reason NSW is held up as being the outlier is the fact that a few "outbreaks" did not result in a full blown lockdown. Had they followed this path, NSW would have locked down on an almost monthly basis and maybe we'd be having a different conversation. Alternatively, I guess they could have stopped taking international arrivals.

The lockdown brigade clearly has their own agenda and it's hard to fight that, however the simple fact of the matter is we should be coming to the end of this pandemic (we are, after all, one of the wealthiest countries in the world) however we are now back to where we were a year ago. This stopped being about a virus a long time ago and became very political, and the "Zero Covid" approach led the public into thinking Australia was "free of it" which in turn led to state premiers developing hard borders to "keep the virus out" (to win state elections) which in turn led to the federal government focusing on the states rather than the future (ie quarantine and vaccinations) which in turn led to the failure of both which in turn led to the public not wanting the vaccines which in turn led to more outbreaks which in turn... etc etc etc.

If we'd stuck with a single model of "flatten the curve", "reduce the spread" and allow our world leading public health system to do its job (those COVID wards and thousands of ventilators? What happened there) then we'd be in a far better position. As a business owner, I can assure you I would have been a lot happier with a clear set of COVID regulations and restrictions in June 2020 that I could follow through to December 2021, rather than this constant chopping and changing.

 

[burmans]

Its clearly a difficult time for all affected.

The implied message from mandatory testing of workers from Fairfield LGA to work outside their LGA is that testing is a requirement to leave the LGA. A police officer could stop you just outside the LGA and ask for your test receipt so then logically an affected person needs to test inside the LGA. Not sure how an overly assertive police officer might react if an affected person said I'm going for a test before heading into work. This would equally apply when the time limits apply - will 72 hours be enforced as 72 hours.

It's a requirement from Saturday so
1) you'd have until Saturday to get that test (in fact anyone who got that test last night would find it had actually expired by Saturday and they would need a new one, i.e. all that time in the queue last night was a waste of their time)
2) you have always been able to go out for medical reasons, and getting a Covid test is a medical reason, this falls into the exceptions to the stay at home rules (i.e. travel up 10km allowed)
3) going to get a covid test is not working, you get the covid test before going to work. Ie they are sequential activities not parrallel.
4) Why would a police officer object to you going to get Covid tested before working when thats exactly what the health orders say thats what you should do.

Not sure what your point is about 72 hours, 72 hours is 72 hours. I'm sure that practically its totally impossible to have enough police to fully enforce this but I really cant see anyone think that 72 hours is somehow negotiable. If its over 72 hours you can go and get tested, what you cant do is work until you have done so.

 

[Lynda2475]

all that time in the queue last night was a waste of their time

Well not if it found any positives - hopefully they will have some stats on cases uncovered by surveillance vs symptomatic testing.

 

[bcworld]

I feel for these people. They could spend their entire lives either at work, or waiting in line for tests, potentially giving up and having to try again the next day. Meanwhile the outdoor gym at North Bondi is 10 people per square metre and no one seems to care!

 

[RooFlyer]

Realistically, each state has followed the same path. NSW may have taken a bit longer to be pushed there by other premiers, but the goal across all states is "Zero". The only reason NSW is held up as being the outlier is the fact that a few "outbreaks" did not result in a full blown lockdown. Had they followed this path, NSW would have locked down on an almost monthly basis and maybe we'd be having a different conversation. Alternatively, I guess they could have stopped taking international arrivals.

But NSW didn't lock down monthly - it did have a distintly different approach - "keep open and suppress locally". Now, its got beyond that point so they adapt their approach. I don't see 'failure', just a mutating virus that calls for changing responses. And yes - international arrivals. That's a no-win isn't it? Lots of tear-jerker stories about people not being able to get back into the country (although vast numbers have) yet its the source of just about all new outbreaks, albeit a tiny proportion of people in HQ.

If we'd stuck with a single model of "flatten the curve", "reduce the spread" and allow our world leading public health system to do its job (those COVID wards and thousands of ventilators? What happened there) then we'd be in a far better position. As a business owner, I can assure you I would have been a lot happier with a clear set of COVID regulations and restrictions in June 2020 that I could follow through to December 2021, rather than this constant chopping and changing.

Sure, everyone would have been happier with a clear set of regulations from June 2020 but that simply isn't realistic and wouldn't have been from the outset. The virus mutates - responses have to adapt. Economic impacts weren't knowable up-front, but as they became apparent, the responses change. Could be argued that HQ was inherently flawed, but I don't recall it being nay-sayed at the start, only when a (tiny proportion) of 'escapes' became persistant. Remember when DFAT called for people who wanted to come home, register. I think (from fallable memory) about 45,000 registered in the first few months. Since then, how many Australians have come home? ?+200,000. I'm guessing, but its very many more than the number apparent mid-last year. HQ has had to handle a vastly bigger and longer load than was initially apparent.

Even the vaccine availability came much quicker than predictions in June 2020.

I don't blame you or anyomne for frustrations or anger at stuff-ups or inconsistancies. But personally, I think I'm more realistic in recognising that in their addessing of a unique (in modern times) world-wide pandemic, we've just got to accept that governments - not known for being nimble in anything!! (and political in everything) - have had to adapt along the way, react to changing local, national and global circumstances and a changing virus, and that cough-ups will occur. Not to say those should be simply shrugged off - just not blown out of proportion as if the whole country is sinking into some viral swamp. I say again - even with all the mistakes, deaths and lock-down suffering here, we have still had a much better 18 months than virtually any other country.

 

[MooTime]

Because 18 months in we're not far off a national lockdown. Doesn't matter that we kicked the can down the road for a while, the net result is that we're back where we started.

Yet if I asked you 4 weeks ago, just before the Vic lockdown, covid zero was far from a failure.....
Point in time rather important to make some calls.

however the simple fact of the matter is we should be coming to the end of this pandemic (we are, after all, one of the wealthiest countries in the world

coming out of a pandemic, WOWEE, really coming out, how ??? We must be really behind all the other countries done with this pandemic, who are they again?? This pandemic going nowhere.

Don't tell me the UK, Freedom day, yeah right with more cases & more deaths than ever before. Wish we had that.
Then again some people here just want to travel for whatever reason, to see their family o/s while content to let family here in Aus add to the death tally. How ironic!!

Home Quarantine, haha yeah that'll work well, we can trust aussies to self quarantine, Oh my.

thousands of ventilators? What happened there) then we'd be in a far better position. As a business owner, I can assure you I would have been a lot happier with a clear set of COVID regulations and restrictions in June 2020 that I could follow through to December 2021, rather than this constant chopping and changing.

yes sir, we'd be a far better position if those thousands of ventilators were in use. Oh my.

Clear set of reg's made back in June 2020, with you on that one, Hindsight a lovely thing.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

It's a requirement from Saturday so
1) you'd have until Saturday to get that test (in fact anyone who got that test last night would find it had actually expired by Saturday and they would need a new one, i.e. all that time in the queue last night was a waste of their time)
2) you have always been able to go out for medical reasons, and getting a Covid test is a medical reason, this falls into the exceptions to the stay at home rules (i.e. travel up 10km allowed)
3) going to get a covid test is not working, you get the covid test before going to work. Ie they are sequential activities not parrallel.
4) Why would a police officer object to you going to get Covid tested before working when thats exactly what the health orders say thats what you should do.

Not sure what your point is about 72 hours, 72 hours is 72 hours. I'm sure that practically its totally impossible to have enough police to fully enforce this but I really cant see anyone think that 72 hours is somehow negotiable. If its over 72 hours you can go and get tested, what you cant do is work until you have done so.

OK thanks.

So police will be nice when stopping a worker from Fairfield LGA, who works weekdays and last tested on a Wednesday and goes to get a test outside Fairfield LGA on a Monday morning before going to work.

 

[Lynda2475]

I think the mandatory testing also applies to people who live outside Fairfield LGA but work in Fairfield LGA -

From SMH covid blog yesterday:

 

[nutwood]

I'm just more optimistic. I don't believe in 'zero' and have supported NSW's approach and continue to do so, in spite of the present outbreak. NSW has, if not explicitly then implicitly, accepted a certain amount of community transmission, haven't they? They, like Vic before them have been a bit unlucky combined with some inadequate practices and decisions. But as the virus mutates, everyone has to adapt practices and its a judgment as to when a new type of call is needed. We have still done way better than virtually anywhere else - including the oft-mentioned England.

You and I are both in Tas and its inevitable that we'll get an outbreak. We are a bit fortunate that our vaccination rates are higher than other states (or at least they have been) and its a bit easier to compartmentalise and genuinely isolate regions for lockdowns. If there is a community case, I expect the lockdown will be swift and severe! which will be good, becasue as we know, complacency is the norm here (or mostly).

We are both in Tasmania but find it difficult to take advantage of this. I know you recently cancelled a SA trip. I think that was very much a smart thing to do. I was in SA for a week working and it was a stressful time, not knowing what issues I'd encounter coming home. Wouldn't have been enjoyable as a holiday. Too much uncertainty.
I've just cancelled a regional NSW trip, even though I can travel there under Tasmanian rules. In theory, even if they changed the rules, I could still apply under G2G but again, too much uncertainty. So, I cancel a bunch of work. Again!

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

It is not a rumour. It is happening at Fairfield Hospital....just spoke to a colleague who was tested yesterday but does not live in the Fairfield LGA but works at Fairfied Hospital

I think the mandatory testing also applies to people who live outside Fairfield LGA but work in Fairfield LGA - well that's what I'm lead to understand based on AFF discussion.

Edit: I can't see the NSW website (I haven't looked for the actual health orders) saying people from outside Fairfield LGA working in Fairfield LGA need to do mandatory testing - so perhaps this thread was previously misinformed.

I just got a chance to fully read the NSW Health's news release on surveillance testing that burmans gave in relation to the new testing protocols.

News - Mandatory COVID-19 surveillance testing for Greater Sydney workers

www.health.nsw.gov.au

The following sentence appears:

The testing requirement is only for people who live in the Fairfield LGA leaving for work in other LGAs, not people from other LGAs who enter Fairfield LGA for work purposes.

so it does in fact appear that your colleague's test is not specified under the new testing protocols.

 

[N860CR]

coming out of a pandemic, WOWEE, really coming out, how ??? We must be really behind all the other countries done with this pandemic, who are they again?? This pandemic going nowhere.

Don't tell me the UK, Freedom day, yeah right with more cases & more deaths than ever before. Wish we had that.
Then again some people here just want to travel for whatever reason, to see their family o/s while content to let family here in Aus add to the death tally. How ironic!!

Again, what's your plan? We are coming out of it, whether certain people like it or not. The current model is not sustainable. The country is in debt that will not be paid off in our lifetime and it's only getting worse. You seem to be of the opinion that we're going to continue like this forever. As I've said before, if you want a lockdown, then lockdown. Nobody is stopping you.

The UK has vaccinated, set a date and said basically "this is as good as we're going to get". That is how this ends. If you're waiting for a medical end (ie global eradication) then I'm sorry, but this isn't happening. The fact that you say "just want to travel for whatever reason" does prove you don't have much of a grasp of the bigger picture.

 

[drron]

Yet if I asked you 4 weeks ago, just before the Vic lockdown, covid zero was far from a failure.....
Point in time rather important to make some calls.



coming out of a pandemic, WOWEE, really coming out, how ??? We must be really behind all the other countries done with this pandemic, who are they again?? This pandemic going nowhere.

Don't tell me the UK, Freedom day, yeah right with more cases & more deaths than ever before. Wish we had that.
Then again some people here just want to travel for whatever reason, to see their family o/s while content to let family here in Aus add to the death tally. How ironic!!

Home Quarantine, haha yeah that'll work well, we can trust aussies to self quarantine, Oh my.

yes sir, we'd be a far better position if those thousands of ventilators were in use. Oh my.

Clear set of reg's made back in June 2020, with you on that one, Hindsight a lovely thing.

Wrong.Sure cases have gone up but very little increase in deaths.Neither is worse than ever before.
.

Cases started to rise about 6 weeks ago and became exponential 3 weeks ago but very little increase in Death.At the height of their previous wave deaths lagged cases by ~ 12 days so promising that 21 days after the start of the steep rise in cases very little change in deaths.

And virtually all cases now are the Delta variant.Much more infectious than the alpha strain responsible for the Dec/Jan spike.
.

 

[MooTime]

Again, what's your plan? We are coming out of it, whether certain people like it or not. The current model is not sustainable. The country is in debt that will not be paid off in our lifetime and it's only getting worse. You seem to be of the opinion that we're going to continue like this forever. As I've said before, if you want a lockdown, then lockdown. Nobody is stopping you.

The UK has vaccinated, set a date and said basically "this is as good as we're going to get". That is how this ends. If you're waiting for a medical end (ie global eradication) then I'm sorry, but this isn't happening. The fact that you say "just want to travel for whatever reason" does prove you don't have much of a grasp of the bigger picture.

Nobodies coming out of this global pandemic just yet.

Every country is in huge debt, UK included.

We all know there is no eradication to this covid19, it's here to stay in it's many variant's just like the flu, have a shot each year & we live with it, With improved vac's in the future, that's how it'll play out, that's the bigger picture. That's my plan.

We're not ready to open yet, 12% vaccinated, would be an absolute disaster to open up now or even soon. So many would die right here in our backyard, far more per head than than UK (as there further along the vax journey, they had to be, their situation was terrible from day 1).

Lockdowns are here to stay for a while yet, till at least like Vic Dan says at least till everybody has had a chance to get the jab.

I don't think you have much of a grasp on the death tally should we open on a reasoning 'this is as good as we're going to get'.

 

[milehighclub]

WA has imposed 14 day quarantine for all arrivals from VIC (feel sorry for those mid-flight, if any)

 

[MooTime]

Wrong.Sure cases have gone up but very little increase in deaths.Neither is worse than ever before.
View attachment 253013.

Cases started to rise about 6 weeks ago and became exponential 3 weeks ago but very little increase in Death.At the height of their previous wave deaths lagged cases by ~ 12 days so promising that 21 days after the start of the steep rise in cases very little change in deaths.

And virtually all cases now are the Delta variant.Much more infectious than the alpha strain responsible for the Dec/Jan spike.
View attachment 253016.

thanks for correcting me on the death tally.

I do go back to my point we're no where near ready to open up & travel like many calling for.
UK low death rate compared to earlier in the pandemic due to the high vax rate, we're sitting at 12% to their 69%. hardly comparable, but so many keep comparing AUS to UK, just silly & non-sensical.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Nobodies coming out of this global pandemic just yet.

Every country is in huge debt, UK included.

We all know there is no eradication to this covid19, it's here to stay in it's many variant's just like the flu, have a shot each year & we live with it, With improved vac's in the future, that's how it'll play out, that's the bigger picture. That's my plan.

We're not ready to open yet, 12% vaccinated, would be an absolute disaster to open up now or even soon. So many would die right here in our backyard, far more per head than than UK (as there further along the vax journey, they had to be, their situation was terrible from day 1).

Lockdowns are here to stay for a while yet, till at least like Vic Dan says at least till everybody has had a chance to get the jab.

I don't think you have much of a grasp on the death tally should we open on a reasoning 'this is as good as we're going to get'.

I think the NSW Premier has said a similar thing - specifying wanting higher vaccination rates.

A small sample/snapshot at this point of this Sydney outbreak:
- Just over 860 local cases;
- more than 20 in ICU (I believe across ages)
- at least 5 required a ventilator (I believe across ages)
- 2 deaths (though admittedly unvaccinated and elderly - over 70 I believe)