Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[justinbrett]

You take your eye off this thread (and the news) for 24 hours and all hell breaks loose.

 

[33kft]

Is that Barwon Heads on surf coast, near Geelong?

It is. Thankfully it's winter so half of Melbourne isn't there, but you're quite right that it's in no way a good development

 

[nutwood]

You would be the exception rather than the rule on that. I’ve been in the freight industry for a long time and most drivers stop and have a sit down meal and often a shower aswell. Big business for the roadhouses

Wish I'd worked for you! Old history now though.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I believe this is one of case 9 or 10...teacher's family member

https://twitter.com/x/status/1415263773263228929

EDIT. Looks like link to NSW was via the removalists . Removalist- 60s guy- Teacher..

 

[jakeseven7]

This one suggests another family having returned from holidays in NSW.

I smell a very hard border closing coming….

 

[Must...Fly!]

This one suggests another family/person having returned from holidays in NSW.

Why? Bacchus Marsh is a one hour drive from there

 

[lovetravellingoz]

So current Vic Cases from dbRaeven:

(Though note it appears that the 60s guy and the teacher met at Young & Jacksons first and then went to the game. So transmission may have occurred at either venue and the two have spent about five and half hours together. So given that length of time, 60's man may hopefully not be a super-spreader. Though 20% chance that he is ).





Or alternatively from Surge Tesing Crab:

 

[bcworld]

Masks back in workplaces...that was short-lived!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1415287538676158467

 

[jase05]

The Australian with "the leak"

Victorian health authorities are considering a lockdown of at least three days to contain a growing outbreak of Covid-19 sparked by Sydney’s Bondi cluster, which has forced five million people to comply with stay-at-home orders until at least the end of the month.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Why? Bacchus Marsh is a one hour drive from there

I have edited post as just after I wrote it I read the tweet indicating that the Bacchus Marsh Teacher lives in Barwon and so it appears that they are all in the one cluster, rather than the primary school being a new cluster from a different source.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The Australian with "the leak"

Well at present they will want to get the test results back from all the new close contacts as well in particular the thousands at the game, Y&J and the two schools to get an better idea of the extent of the problem. That plus the Coles guy close contacts.

In the meantime most of the most likely have been instructed to isolate and get tested. ie Everyone at the game has had a ticket with contact details supplied when purchased.

The rapid testing that they now do in Victoria for close contacts may already have provided an initial guide on those already to the authorities.


Testing surged just after my wife's test today at about noon. Her negative result came back 10 hours later. The last several tests that we have had in the family have been at about 7-8 hour mark.

I suspect that most, if not all of the those at MCG will have gone in after my wife and so results probably will not have come through till after 10PM. And not all will have rushed off for testing immediately, though hopefully most did. The balance, plus the primary school contacts may not be known till late Thursday afternoon, or evening.

By say 8am they should have had the results from a reasonable cohort back to give them an initial feel, by lunchtime they should have a much better idea. By tomorrow evening better again. So for 12-24 hours we may not know whether we have a small problem, or something much larger.

 

[moa999]

After this recent outbreak NSW went back ahead of Victoria on the tests conducted table table (not that there is a prize for it)

Still somewhat surprising that in the whole of this pandemic the average Vic or NSW person (adults and kids) has only been tested once...

There must still be a lot of 0s.

Post automatically merged: Jul 14, 2021

I have no doubt. The spread of fear is far and wide.

I'd be just as worried from all the crowds at the various football and tennis events over the past week in the UK.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Case 8 has already led to 9 & 10

https://twitter.com/x/status/1415233020022333447

Though the 2 potentially infectious at the MCG is most likely not correct for if the two first met at Y&J, the Teacher would not have had time yet to have become infectious.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

So Victoria will certainly go into another lockdown now. Another week or two do we think?

It just goes to show, as much as we love blaming politicians, luck plays such a big part in all this. The Sandringham Dry Cleaner "cluster" (of 2?) went absolutely nowhere ,but this one, aah who knows where it will all end up.

Well a lot will depend on what the tests performed today indicate overnight and tomorrow.

As to the (bad) luck factor a lot I feel will depend on if 60's man is in the 20% of people who spread the virus easily.

If he was generating "fleeting type" transmission then on the 10th at Y&J and the MCG he will have been near a lot of people. Though at least when arriving/ departing spectators at the game are meant to wear masks and most but not all do.

Now with contact details being given when all tickets are bought for games will make the contact tracers task an easier one, and that virtually all should have been messaged earlier today. Plus also patrons are meant to scan QR codes on entry.

But on the negative side it does seem that people can get infected with this strain, and then infect another as quickly as two days. So potentially anyone infected at the game may have been infecting others from late Monday on. And potentially that layer could have infected more today.




I do suspect that they will be tempted to go for a 3 day circuit breaker just to allow:
1/for any already infected time to get tested, and thus show up. And especially from the large number that they do know about and have contact details for.
2/ to minimise how much that growing pool of potential positive contacts can infect others as they are now beyond the 48hours that it takes some with this strain to be able to infect others.

 

[jase05]

Well at present they will want to get the test results back from all the new close contacts as well in particular the thousands at the game, Y&J and the two schools to get an better idea of the extent of the problem. That plus the Coles guy close contacts.

In the meantime most of the most likely have been instructed to isolate and get tested. ie Everyone at the game has had a ticket with contact details supplied when purchased.

The rapid testing that they now do in Victoria for close contacts may already have provided an initial guide on those already to the authorities.


Testing surged just after my wife's test today at about noon. Her negative result came back 10 hours later. The last several tests that we have had in the family have been at about 7-8 hour mark.

I suspect that most, if not all of the those at MCG will have gone in after my wife and so results probably will not have come through till after 10PM. And not all will have rushed off for testing immediately, though hopefully most did. The balance, plus the primary school contacts may not be known till late Thursday afternoon, or evening.

By say 8am they should have had the results from a reasonable cohort back to give them an initial feel, by lunchtime they should have a much better idea. By tomorrow evening better again. So for 12-24 hours we may not know whether we have a small problem, or something much larger.

My understanding is that as usual the AFL have got the heads up from the Vic government.
Sydney and GWS have been put on the first flight to QLD tomorrow and the Western Bulldogs are also headed up there. Other teams I’ve heard are heading to Hobart.
They wouldn’t move the whole comp out of Victoria unless something drastic is happening

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Contact tracers hard at work tonight.

More sites for both the Barwon Region as well as back in Melbourne.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

My understanding is that as usual the AFL have got the heads up from the Vic government.
Sydney and GWS have been put on the first flight to QLD tomorrow and the Western Bulldogs are also headed up there. Other teams I’ve heard are heading to Hobart.
They wouldn’t move the whole comp out of Victoria unless something drastic is happening

Well the AFL does tend to be proactive, including if there may be a change suspected but not confirmed. ie Not long ago moved the SA based teams out of SA just in case there was a border change. As it turned out SA games went ahead in SA.

 

[Seat0B]

We are both in Tasmania but find it difficult to take advantage of this. I know you recently cancelled a SA trip. I think that was very much a smart thing to do. I was in SA for a week working and it was a stressful time, not knowing what issues I'd encounter coming home. Wouldn't have been enjoyable as a holiday. Too much uncertainty.
I've just cancelled a regional NSW trip, even though I can travel there under Tasmanian rules. In theory, even if they changed the rules, I could still apply under G2G but again, too much uncertainty. So, I cancel a bunch of work. Again!

Same for me here in the ACT. I gave work in SA - postponed again or even cancelled. I have a family trip to my mother’s uni graduation from UTas next month - we’ve all just decided too risky to go and will ask if she can join the next graduation in December - and as she’s 87 and just had a melanoma and lymph nodes removed, I hope she lives to see it.

 

[Seat0B]

Whatever happened to "looking after your own needs" - you know, what most young men do, most of the time? I mean, come ON! If they can't be celibate for 2 months, what do they do when their wives get pregnant and give birth?

Unfortunately I think we all know the answer to that question.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

So looks like 60s man went to and from Y&J/MCG and back via several tram routes and a train.. So that is going to add quite a few contacts.
Mask wearing is compulsory still in Vic on Public Transport. Most wear them. I hope that he was not one of the small number who did/do not.

Case alerts - public exposure sites | Coronavirus Victoria

Victorian locations where there is a risk you may have been exposed to COVID-19

www.coronavirus.vic.gov.au