Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[dairyfloss]

Just came out? Reopening still safe with hundreds of daily COVID cases, Doherty Institute boss says

Oh, thank god they didn't pull an ATAGI on us! It really does make perfect sense. What's the difference between 30 and 800 when you're open, anyway? Odds are it would only take a week or two to close the gap, particularly with so many vaccinated and with asymptomatic infections

 

[Lynda2475]

Just came out? Reopening still safe with hundreds of daily COVID cases, Doherty Institute boss says

Was just about to post this. She was also interviewed on 7:30 tonight saying the same.

 

[N860CR]

How many many times can I hit the like button. Exactly what most of us in this thread have been saying for weeks now. Hopefully this settles it politically once and for all.

Yep. The UK had about 40,000 “cases” (ie positive test results) on the day they lifted restrictions (which included international arrivals - and I doubt that’s on the cards for us). Things need to be kept in perspective.

 

[justinbrett]

How many many times can I hit the like button. Exactly what most of us in this thread have been saying for weeks now. Hopefully this settles it politically once and for all.

I think there will be some premiers and forum members still arguing about it.

Take the health advice, unless you don't like it.

 

[Must...Fly!]

I think there will be some premiers and forum members still arguing about it.

Take the health advice, unless you don't like it.

Oh tomorrow will be good. I might watch a press conference or two for a change.

 

[justinbrett]

Oh tomorrow will be good. I might watch a press conference or two for a change.

"The modelling hasn't been made available to us. We will get it on Friday at national cabinet. I have no comment at this time".

 

[antycbr]

"The modelling hasn't been made available to us. We will get it on Friday at national cabinet. I have no comment at this time".

I think Doherty would have cleared this with the PMO but they had to get something out.

People were starting to criticise Doherty itself and their professional capability and integrity as researchers.

 

[jakeseven7]

To be honest, does it matter? As I’ve said from the beginning; if it all comes down to the actions of one individual to cause the state to “fall”, then it’s the ultimate house of cards.

No it doesn’t matter that’s why I’m continually perplexed at the super defensive/antagonised constant posting blaming state failures for the spread etc. It’s a moot point now - it’s going to be EVERYWHERE in the next few months. I’m almost 100% certain in a month or two it will be spreading through QLD too. Just hope we have floored it with vaccinations by then.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I think Doherty would have cleared this with the PMO but they had to get something out.

People were starting to criticise Doherty itself and their professional capability and integrity as researchers.

Well some of the staff were making unhelpful comments.

 

[drron]

I'm not entirely sure this is correct. Newcastle is the gateway to regions north, but not to the west. There are several large national parks, not to mention a few mountains, that disconnect Newcastle from the Western regions.

Not quite true.We lived in Maitland for 18 years it was just as easy for us to access the West from there as from Sydney.Out through Singleton and Merriwa to Mudgee or on through Dunedoo to Dubbo.
According to Google Maps 4hr.1 minute from Maitland to Dubbo and 4 hr 43 min from Concord West where we lived in Sydney .And in those days no M4 so longer.
Mudgee 3hr 11 min from Maitland and 3hr 23 min from concord west.

 

[justinbrett]

I think Doherty would have cleared this with the PMO but they had to get something out.

People were starting to criticise Doherty itself and their professional capability and integrity as researchers.

The PM got it verbally on Sunday. There was quite a debate on this forum about it because some other members wanted to debate it.

The states will not comment until they get fully briefed on Friday at National Cabinet - if nothing else it buys them a few extra days.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Just came out? Reopening still safe with hundreds of daily COVID cases, Doherty Institute boss says

It will be interesting to read the full new report.

In the current (old) report there is a series of tables for the proportion of time that lockdowns will be needed, and/or other ongoing restriction settings.

​

Table 4.2 shows that light or moderate restrictions will likely be insufficient to regain control of epidemics even at 70% coverage for only a partially effective TTIQ response. Prolonged lockdowns would likely be needed to limit infection numbers and caseloads. The proportion of time during which the community would experience imposition of these stringent measures logically declines as vaccine coverage increases.​

• ‘Optimal’ TTIQ response, deemed achievable when active case numbers can be contained in the order of 10s or 100s; ​

• ‘Partial’ TTIQ response, deemed more likely when established community transmission leads to rapid escalation of caseloads in the 1,000s or beyond.​

Active case numbers in NSW at present are 10,984. So when TTIQ is partially effective such in NSW at present you have:


So the above table was obviously not that attractive.

Whereas when you have optimally effective TTIQ you have the much more attractive outcome. (Note there are various other tables for settings in between).



The two tables though do indicate the difference between a range of caseloads as per the original report. And given what was in the range of tables is why for those that had read the report in full there were questions raised about what restrictions would be at 70 or 80 % vaccinations rate when there was a high level of active community cases.



So it will be interesting read in the new report what the recommendations are for the level of caseloads that NSW, or Victoria, may be at when 70% and 80% vaccination levels are reached. And as to what ongoing restrictions would be, or would not be, required to stay out of lockdown.

Based on the original report opening up at 70% with a high number of cases would still be hard yakka, whereas 80% much more achievable.


Now hopefully the higher the vaccination rate, the lower the caseloads will become before we hit the 70 and 80% vaccinated rates. And presumably this will now be all modelled in the updated report.

 

[jakeseven7]

It will be interesting to read the full new report.

In the current (old) report there is a series of tables for the proportion of time that lockdowns will be needed, and/or other ongoing restriction settings.

• ‘Optimal’ TTIQ response, deemed achievable when active case numbers can be contained in the order of 10s or 100s; ​

• ‘Partial’ TTIQ response, deemed more likely when established community transmission leads to rapid escalation of caseloads in the 1,000s or beyond.​

Active case numbers in NSW at present are 10,984. So when TTIQ is partially effective such in NSW at present you have:

View attachment 256317
So the above table was obviously not that attractive.

Whereas when you have optimally effective TTIQ you have the much more attractive outcome. (Note there are various other tables for settings in between).

View attachment 256323

The two tables though do indicate the difference between a range of caseloads.



So it will be interesting read in the new report what the recommendations are for the level of caseloads that NSW is likely to be when 70% and 80% vaccination levels are reached.

Hmmm that certainly sent a shudder down my spine because I can see how certain people will interpret and use this to their own end….

 

[justinbrett]

How many many times can I hit the like button. Exactly what most of us in this thread have been saying for weeks now. Hopefully this settles it politically once and for all.

Apparently not…

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Hmmm that certainly sent a shudder down my spine because I can see how certain people will interpret and use this to their own end….

Well it was why questions were being asked.

Hopefully the new report provides clearer guidance for what restrictions are actually required at different vaccination levels and the now likely caseload rates.

The first report in those tables had quite a stark range of outcomes.

 

[drron]

This was linked by a FB group Our Newcastle.

 

[Pete98765432]

From the Doherty website:
Statement on the Doherty Institute modelling

 

[Lynda2475]

Dr Lewin was also on The Drum tonight stating the same, unfortunately you have to put up with ranting from Jane Caro about no vaccine for toddlers.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

A hairdressing business is not what one wants to see on the Tier 1 exposure list.

A hairdressers for three whole days. That is likely to be many long exposures at close range with quite a number of people
Hopefully the hairdresser involves is amongst the 80% of cases who are not as infectious as the 20% who tend to generate most of the cases.

 

[justinbrett]

Dr Lewin was also on The Drum tonight stating the same, unfortunately you have to put up with ranting from about no vaccine for toddlers.

Very articulate and reasonable, it's going to be very difficult for states to disagree with it.

Good point about children as well, since the media tends to be fixated on them, that they don't play a significant role in the spread of the virus once vaccination is at 80% excluding them. It would make sense to start doing 12+ after the first jabs get to 80%, as there will be a delay until we get to the double jab rate.

I do predict Phase B (70%) will be streamlined to much fewer freedoms (mostly intrastate) and we'll wait for Phase C (80%) to really open up. There's only going to be 3-4 weeks between the phases as long as people keep stepping up for vaccines.

The number one thing to fix the vax rollout in every state is an agreement to open up to the world, which will force some people into action.