Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[N860CR]

A hairdressing business is not what one wants to see on the Tier 1 exposure list.

A hairdressers for three whole days. That is likely to be many long exposures at close range with quite a number of people
Hopefully the hairdresser involves is amongst the 80% of cases who are not as infectious as the 20% who tend to generate most of the cases.

It doesn’t matter anymore. Time to move on from this “expose” issue. 30%+ are vaccinated, fatalities are seemingly only in those who have chosen not to be vaccinated, the goalposts have been moved.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Rafael Epstein
@Raf_Epstein
·

Today’s Covid number for Victoria is in the 50s Keep in mind more than half of cases in last two weeks have not been in iso. Lower number today is good but mystery cases and iso ratio will tell the whole story

 

[Batterytraveller]

It doesn’t matter anymore. Time to move on from this “expose” issue. 30%+ are vaccinated, fatalities are seemingly only in those who have chosen not to be vaccinated, the goalposts have been moved.

That’s not correct, if you read the Doherty report you’ll note that we have to have an effective Test, Trace, Isolate and Quarantine regime, even at 80% 16+ vaccinated. So exposure site continue to matter

 

[antycbr]

Rafael Epstein
@Raf_Epstein
·

Today’s Covid number for Victoria is in the 50s Keep in mind more than half of cases in last two weeks have not been in iso. Lower number today is good but mystery cases and iso ratio will tell the whole story

He may as well publish the numbers.

 

[jakeseven7]

That’s not correct, if you read the Doherty report you’ll note that we have to have an effective Test, Trace, Isolate and Quarantine regime, even at 80% 16+ vaccinated. So exposure site continue to matter

Some exposure sites yes, but they won’t be like today’s endless lists. NSW has already stopped making public all exposure lists.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

So 51 cases, but one is in international HQ.

50 local cases.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1429934849758924816

Of the 50 local cases recorded, 40 are linked to current outbreaks and 10 are under investigation. ​

​

11 cases have been in quarantine throughout their infectious period. [2/2]​

So now to find out how many were in Shepparton.

 

[andye]

At a risk of igniting pointless interstate sniping, covid19 data now has the NSW Vic & ACT Reffs

Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Australia | Data

Data visualisations tracking the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in Australia. Updated frequently. Embeddable infographics. A volunteer-run, fact-checked project tracking the outbreak.

www.covid19data.com.au

 

[jakeseven7]

At a risk of igniting pointless interstate sniping, covid19 data now has the NSW Vic & ACT Reffs

Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Australia | Data

Data visualisations tracking the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in Australia. Updated frequently. Embeddable infographics. A volunteer-run, fact-checked project tracking the outbreak.

www.covid19data.com.au

Great another shrieking point! Thankfully they appear to be asleep still, hopefully your post goes by unnoticed - but thank you it is interesting!

 

[OATEK]

At a risk of igniting pointless interstate sniping, covid19 data now has the NSW Vic & ACT Reffs

Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Australia | Data

Data visualisations tracking the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in Australia. Updated frequently. Embeddable infographics. A volunteer-run, fact-checked project tracking the outbreak.

www.covid19data.com.au

Great another shrieking point! Thankfully they appear to be asleep still, hopefully your post goes by unnoticed - but thank you it is interesting!

So all three sitting around 1.3 to 1.5 range.

 

[sjk]

There's bound to be a bit of a battle of the models from here on in... the Doherty "modeling" is really little more than a policy platform starting with the 70% and 80% levels as given.

Australia cannot treat COVID-19 ‘like the flu’ - Policy Forum

The New South Wales COVID-19 epidemic has highlighted the divisions in National Cabinet about what vaccination level needs to be reached before Australia The NSW outbreak has highlighted divisions in National Cabinet about what vaccination level needs to be reached before Australia can relax...

www.policyforum.net

Probably the most interesting part is the extreme best-case scenario:

If the country achieves these four steps, fully relaxing public health measures to eliminate community transmission could still, eventually, result in some 5,000 fatalities and 40,000 cases of long COVID.

 

[jakeseven7]

There's bound to be a bit of a battle of the models from here on in... the Doherty "modeling" is really little more than a policy platform starting with the 70% and 80% levels as given.

Australia cannot treat COVID-19 ‘like the flu’ - Policy Forum

The New South Wales COVID-19 epidemic has highlighted the divisions in National Cabinet about what vaccination level needs to be reached before Australia The NSW outbreak has highlighted divisions in National Cabinet about what vaccination level needs to be reached before Australia can relax...

www.policyforum.net

Probably the most interesting part is the extreme best-case scenario:

If the country achieves these four steps, fully relaxing public health measures to eliminate community transmission could still, eventually, result in some 5,000 fatalities and 40,000 cases of long COVID.

There is however inputs that model the various effectiveness of complementary public health efforts existing alongside the vaccination campaign and if they are successful there is a published scenario with as little as 14 deaths!

 

[Must...Fly!]

I see the guardian has grabbed hold of this non peer reviewed study and running with it as a lead story.

 

[jakeseven7]

NSW mayor still fighting to become a part of the QLD bubble

———

Tweed mayor still confident NSW-Qld border can be shifted despite COVID threat​

The mayor of the Tweed Shire, on the NSW north coast, is still holding out hope her local government area can be brought under Queensland’s border protections as the clock ticks on cases creeping north.

Chris Cherry has been pushing for the Queensland border to be moved south to encompass all of the Tweed Shire, which is yet to see a case of the virus.

As it happened: NSW records 753 new local COVID-19 cases and one death, state hits 6 million jab target; Victoria, Queensland infections continue to grow

NSW is set to hit 6 million vaccines today, Victorian authorities are concerned about a rise in mystery cases and a leading infectious diseases expert says it will be safe to reopen the country once 70 to 80 per cent of people are vaccinated even if daily case numbers remain high.

www.smh.com.au

 

[antycbr]

There's bound to be a bit of a battle of the models from here on in... the Doherty "modeling" is really little more than a policy platform starting with the 70% and 80% levels as given.

I for one look forward to this conversation being handled with nuance, based on people's ability to understand and synthesise large amounts of information /s

 

[jakeseven7]

This will become the absolute red line I think in the battle against the virus spread.

By Christmas, our vaccination rates even in the slow coach states will be sizeable.

Any state preventing Christmas travel 2021 will be very very brave in this circumstance!

I have booked all our Christmas domestic travel already…. As I suspect airfares will go through the roof even more than they usually do!

——

Christmas 2021: ‘Let’s just see’ what states do once Australia reaches vaccination target, PM says​

​

Sunrise co-host David Koch has asked the Prime Minister whether he can guarantee that all Australians will be able to have Christmas with their family and friends this year if they live interstate.​

Here’s what Scott Morrison had to say in response:

“I believe we will be able to be in that position if we have those marks of 70 per cent and 80 per cent because there is no reason why you shouldn’t be [open].

“It’s not a deal with me, it’s a deal with the Australian people who are keeping up their end of the bargain. And they expect the political leaders [of the states and territories] to keep their end of the bargain”

As it happened: NSW records 753 new local COVID-19 cases and one death, state hits 6 million jab target; Victoria, Queensland infections continue to grow

NSW is set to hit 6 million vaccines today, Victorian authorities are concerned about a rise in mystery cases and a leading infectious diseases expert says it will be safe to reopen the country once 70 to 80 per cent of people are vaccinated even if daily case numbers remain high.

www.smh.com.au

 

[SydneySwan]

This will become the absolute red line I think in the battle against the virus spread.

By Christmas, our vaccination rates even in the slow coach states will be sizeable.

Any state preventing Christmas travel 2021 will be very very brave in this circumstance!

I have booked all our Christmas domestic travel already…. As I suspect airfares will go through the roof even more than they usually do!

——

Christmas 2021: ‘Let’s just see’ what states do once Australia reaches vaccination target, PM says​

​

Sunrise co-host David Koch has asked the Prime Minister whether he can guarantee that all Australians will be able to have Christmas with their family and friends this year if they live interstate.​

Here’s what Scott Morrison had to say in response:

“I believe we will be able to be in that position if we have those marks of 70 per cent and 80 per cent because there is no reason why you shouldn’t be [open].

“It’s not a deal with me, it’s a deal with the Australian people who are keeping up their end of the bargain. And they expect the political leaders [of the states and territories] to keep their end of the bargain”

As it happened: NSW records 753 new local COVID-19 cases and one death, state hits 6 million jab target; Victoria, Queensland infections continue to grow

NSW is set to hit 6 million vaccines today, Victorian authorities are concerned about a rise in mystery cases and a leading infectious diseases expert says it will be safe to reopen the country once 70 to 80 per cent of people are vaccinated even if daily case numbers remain high.

www.smh.com.au

So was that a YES or a NO then?

 

[jb747]

If they won’t open at those marks, then I suspect it tells us that they will never open. The public response to that might not be ’nice’ for want of a better term.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Having scrolled through the Twitter feed of the leading author of the modelling reported in The Guardian, it's pretty clear there's an agenda there. I guess everyone has one and I just happen to disagree with her.

 

[Pushka]

There is some hope

Premier Steven Marshall commits to opening SA borders once vaccination rates reached​

Premier Steven Marshall has committed to reopening SA’s borders once vaccine targets are hit – despite fears from other states about the spread of the Delta strain.

 

[Princess Fiona]

Having scrolled through the Twitter feed of the leading author of the modelling reported in The Guardian, it's pretty clear there's an agenda there. I guess everyone has one and I just happen to disagree with her.

The website is “interesting”. Same authors have written another couple of pieces advocating for herd immunity here with mRNA vaccines before we open up international borders etc.

Not surprised The Guardian ran with it. Hopefully it will get some robust debunking soon enough.